Berechnung der historischen Volatilität in Excel - 2020 ...

Thoughts On The Market Series #1 - The New Normal?

Market Outlook: What to Make of This “New Normal”

By ****\*
March 16, 2020
After an incredibly volatile week – which finished with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallying over 9% on Friday – I suppose my readers might expect me to be quite upbeat about the markets.
Unfortunately, I persist in my overall pessimistic outlook for stocks, and for the economy in general. Friday’s rally essentially negated Thursday’s sell-off, but I don’t expect it to be the start of a sustained turnaround.
We’re getting a taste of that this morning, with the Dow opening down around 7%.
This selloff is coming on the back of an emergency interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve of 100 basis points (to 0%-0.25%) on Sunday… along with the announcement of a new quantitative easing program of $700 billion. (I will write about this further over the next several days.)
As I have been writing for many weeks, the financial bubble – which the Fed created by pumping trillions of dollars into the financial system – has popped. It will take some time for the bubble to deflate to sustainable levels.
Today I’ll walk you through what’s going on in the markets and the economy… what I expect going forward and why… and what it means for us as traders. (You’ll see it’s not all bad news.)

Coronavirus’ Strain on the Global Economy

To start, let’s put things in perspective: This asset deflation was coming one way or another. Covid19 (or coronavirus) has simply accelerated the process.
Major retailers are closing, tourism is getting crushed, universities and schools are sending students home, conventions, sporting events, concerts, and other public gatherings have been cancelled, banks and other financial service firms are going largely virtual, and there has been a massive loss of wealth.
Restaurant data suggests that consumer demand is dropping sharply, and the global travel bans will only worsen the situation.
Commercial real estate is another sector that looks particularly vulnerable. We are almost certain to see a very sharp and pronounced economic slowdown here in the United States, and elsewhere. In fact, I expect a drop of at least 5% of GDP over the next two quarters, which is quite severe by any standard.
Sure, when this cycle is complete, there will be tremendous amounts of pent-up demand by consumers, but for the time being, the consumer is largely on the sidelines.
Of course, the problems aren’t just in the U.S. China’s numbers look awful. In fact, the government there may have to “massage” their numbers a bit to show a positive GDP in the first quarter. Europe’s numbers will also look dreadful, and South Korea’s economy has been hit badly.
All around the world, borders are being shut, all non-essential businesses are being closed, and people in multiple countries are facing a lockdown of historic proportions. The coronavirus is certainly having a powerful impact, and it looks certain that its impact will persist for a while.
Consider global tourism. It added almost $9 trillion to the global economy in 2018, and roughly 320 million jobs. This market is in serious trouble.
Fracking in the U.S. is another business sector that is in a desperate situation. Millions of jobs and tens of billions of loans are now in jeopardy.
The derivative businesses that this sector supports will be likewise devastated as companies are forced to reduce their workforces or shut down due to the collapse in oil prices. This sector’s suffering will probably force banks to book some big losses despite attempts by the government to support this industry.
In a similar way, the derivative businesses that are supported by the universities and colleges across America are going to really suffer.
There are nearly 20 million students in colleges across the U.S. When they go home for spring vacation and do not return, the effect on the local businesses that colleges and university populations support will be devastating.
What does this “new normal” mean going forward? Let’s take a look…

New Normal

The new normal may become increasingly unpleasant for us. We need to be ready to hunker down for quite some time.
Beyond that, the government needs to handle this crisis far better in the future.
The level of stupidity associated with the massive throngs of people trapped in major airports yesterday, for example, was almost unimaginable.
Instead of facilitating the reduction of social contact and halting the further spread of the coronavirus, the management of the crowds at the airports produced a perfect breeding ground for the spread of the virus.
My guess is that more draconian travel restrictions will be implemented soon, matching to some extent the measures taken across Europe.
This will in turn have a further dampening effect on economic activity in the U.S., putting more and more pressure on the Fed and the government to artificially support a rapidly weakening economy.
Where does this end up? It is too early to say, but a very safe bet is that we will have some months of sharply negative growth. Too many sectors of the economy are going to take a hit to expect anything else.
The Fed has already driven interest rates to zero. Will that help? Unlikely. In fact, as I mentioned at the beginning of this update, the markets are voting with a resounding NO.
The businesses that are most affected by the current economic situation will still suffer. Quantitative easing is hardly a cure-all. In fact, it has been one of the reasons that we have such a mess in our markets today.
The markets have become addicted to the easy money, so more of the same will have little or no impact. We will need real economic demand, not an easier monetary policy.
It won’t help support tourism, for example, or the other sectors getting smashed right now. The government will need to spend at least 5% of GDP, or roughly $1 trillion, to offset the weakness I see coming.
Is it surprising that the Fed and the government take emergency steps to try to stabilize economic growth? Not at all. This is essentially what they have been doing for a long time, so it is completely consistent with their playbook.
Next, I would anticipate the government implementing some massive public-works and infrastructure programs over the coming months. That would be very helpful, and almost certainly quite necessary.
But there’s a problem with this kind of intervention from the government…

What Happens When You Eliminate the Business Cycle

The Fed’s foolish attempt to eliminate business cycles is a significant contributing factor to the volatility we are currently experiencing.
Quantitative easing is nothing more than printing lots and lots of money to support a weak economy and give the appearance of growth and prosperity. In fact, it is a devaluation of the currency’s true buying power.
That in turn artificially drives up the prices of other assets, such as stocks, real estate and gold – but it does not create true wealth. That only comes with non-inflationary growth of goods and services and associated increases in economic output.
Inflation is the government’s way to keep people thinking they are doing better.
To that point: We have seen some traditional safe-haven assets getting destroyed during this time of risk aversion. That has certainly compounded the problems of many investors.
Gold is a great example. As the stock market got violently slammed, people were forced to come up with cash to support their losing positions. Gold became a short-term source of liquidity as people sold their gold holdings in somewhat dramatic fashion. It was one of the few holdings of many people that was not dramatically under water, so people sold it.
The move may have seemed perverse, particularly to people who bought gold as a safe-haven asset, but in times of crisis, all assets tend to become highly correlated, at least short term.
We saw a similar thing happen with long yen exposures and long Bitcoin exposures recently.
The dollar had its strongest one-day rally against the yen since November 2016 as people were forced to sell huge amounts of yen to generate liquidity. Many speculators had made some nice profits recently as the dollar dropped sharply from 112 to 101.30, but they have been forced to book whatever profits they had in this position. Again, this was due to massive losses elsewhere in their portfolios.
Is the yen’s sell-off complete? If it is not complete, it is probably at least close to an attractive level for Japanese investors to start buying yen against a basket of currencies. The major supplies of yen have largely been taken off the table for now.
For example, the yen had been a popular funding currency for “carry” plays. People were selling yen and buying higher-yielding currencies to earn the interest rate difference between the liability currency (yen) and the funding currency (for example, the U.S. dollar).
Carry plays are very unpopular in times of great uncertainty and volatility, however, so that supply of yen will be largely gone for quite some time. Plus, the yield advantage of currencies such as the U.S. dollar, Canadian dollar, and Australian dollar versus the yen is nearly gone.
In addition, at the end of the Japanese fiscal year , there is usually heavy demand for yen as Japanese corporations need to bring home a portion of their overseas holdings for balance sheet window dressing. I don’t expect that pressure to be different this year.
Just as the safe-haven assets of yen and gold got aggressively sold, Bitcoin also got hammered. It was driven by a similar theme – people had big losses and they needed to produce liquidity quickly. Selling Bitcoin became one of the sources of that liquidity.

Heavy Price Deflation Ahead

Overall, there is a chance that this scenario turns into something truly ugly, with sustained price deflation across many parts of the economy. We will certainly have price deflation in many sectors, at least on a temporary basis.
Why does that matter over the long term?
Price deflation is the most debilitating economic development in a society that is debt-laden – like the U.S. today. Prices of assets come down… and the debt becomes progressively bigger and bigger.
The balance sheet of oil company Chesapeake Energy is a classic example. It’s carrying almost $10 billion worth of debt… versus a market cap of only about $600 million. Talk about leverage! When the company had a market cap of $10 billion, that debt level didn’t appear so terrifying.
Although this is an extreme example for illustrative purposes, the massive debt loads of China would seem more and more frightening if we were to sink into flat or negative growth cycles for a while. The government’s resources are already being strained, and it can artificially support only so many failing companies.
The U.S. has gigantic levels of debt as well, but it has the advantage of being the world’s true hegemon, and the U.S. dollar is the world’s reserve currency. This creates a tremendous amount of leverage and power in financing its debt.
The U.S. has been able to impose its will on its trading partners to trade major commodities in dollars. This has created a constant demand for the dollar that offsets, to a large extent, the massive trade deficit that the U.S. runs.
For example, if a German company wants to buy oil, then it needs to hold dollars. This creates a constant demand for dollar assets.
In short, the dollar’s status as the true global reserve currency is far more important than most people realize. China does not hold this advantage.

What to Do Now

In terms of how to position ourselves going forward, I strongly recommend that people continue with a defensive attitude regarding stocks. There could be a lot more downside to come. Likewise, we could see some panic selling in other asset classes.
The best thing right now is to be liquid and patient, ready to pounce on special opportunities when they present themselves.
For sure, there will be some exceptional opportunities, but it is too early to commit ourselves to just one industry. These opportunities could come in diverse sectors such as commercial real estate, hospitality, travel and leisure, and others.
As for the forex markets, the volatility in the currencies is extreme, so we are a bit cautious.
I still like the yen as a safe-haven asset. I likewise still want to sell the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar, and the Canadian dollar as liability currencies.
Why? The Bank of Canada, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand have all taken aggressive steps recently, slashing interest rates. These currencies are all weak, and they will get weaker.
Finding an ideal entry for a trade, however, is tricky. Therefore, we are being extra careful with our trading. We always prioritize the preservation of capital over generating profits, and we will continue with this premise.
At the same time, volatility in the markets is fantastic for traders. We expect many excellent opportunities to present themselves over the coming days and weeks as prices get driven to extreme levels and mispricings appear. So stay tuned.
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Bitcoin Market Weekly Report - Week of 13/07/2020

Bitcoin Market Weekly Report - Week of 13/07/2020

Coinviva BTC/USD 30-min chart
The Bitcoin continued to trade in range bound for the third week in a row. The BTC price dropped below the $9,000 support at one point, but it managed to rebound and reach $9,468 afterwards. The price has since stabilized and is moving sideway again, at around $9,300.
The current support level remains at $9,000, while the resistance is at $9,500. There is no clear direction at the moment. If the volatility picks up, wait for the BTC price to break the support or resistance before determining the trade direction.
Disclaimer: The above market commentary is based on technical analysis using historical pricing data, and is for reference only. It does not serve as investment or trading advice.
Review of the week:
Since 1 July, Bitcoin‘s price hasn’t gained or lost by much, with the cryptocurrency continuing to trade within a tight price band. While the Realized Volatility dipped to 3.2% on 10 July, the implied volatility remained firm at 3.5%. It can be observed that the IV had been moving sideways over a couple of weeks, with traders not expecting an immediate trend reversal in the Bitcoin market. According to one of the Managing Partners at Blockhead Capital, Matt David Kaye, the reason for this suppressed volatility may be the flood of yield-seeking funds with short volatility options in the market. These have been advertised as low-risk, yield generating vehicles to many investors in the market. As the price of Bitcoin consolidated, market makers were trying to hedge their risk by ever-adjusting their spot exposure. This resulted in the creation of a tighter spread and by extension, predictable price ranges for June as they bought back BTC at low prices and sold BTC when the price rose even a little. Thus, these short-volatility funds were gaining pennies, with Kaye adding that the risk was mispriced in the Bitcoin Options market. However, this also gives an excellent opportunity to accumulate volatility, as when the market breaks out, it could result in larger profits. The only way now for the price to pick up is to have the spot market volume note a boost too.
BTC-USD Chart
Disclaimer: The above market commentary is based on technical analysis using historical pricing data, and is for reference only. It does not serve as investment or trading advice.

About Coinviva:
Coinviva aims to create the best crypto financial services ecosystem for both institutional and individual investors. We provide reliable fiat funding options, excellent trading liquidity, bank security level custody and one-stop high liquidity provision on-site & off-site. Our founding management team all come from top tiered investment banking (e.g. JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America Merrill Lynch), with fully comprehensive financial institution operation experience.
Homepage: https://coinviva.com/
Telegram: https://t.me/coinviva
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Bitcoin Market Weekly Report - Week of 06/07/2020

Bitcoin Market Weekly Report - Week of 06/07/2020

Coinviva BTC-USD Daily Chart
The volatility of Bitcoin movement remained low for the second week. Since the beginning of July, the Bitcoin price ranged between $8,918 and $9,298. The trend remained slightly bearish as the price failed to break above $10,000 last month, and the bars were hovering around the lower Keltner band. The current support is at $9,000.
If the volatility starts to pick up this week and breaks below the support, a short signal is confirmed amid the current bearish trend. The next support level is at $8,500.
Review of the week:
CoinGecko, the cryptocurrency analytics firm, in its recent quarterly report for Q2 2020, charted the price change for before and after the 2016 and the 2020 halvings. In July 2016, Bitcoin was trading between $400 – $950. While in the 50 days prior, it rose by 11 percent, in the 50 days after the halving, the price dropped by 9 percent. Coming back to 2020, in the 50 days prior to the halving, the price rose by 50 percent, and in the 50 days after, by 5 percent. Given the late halving surplus in 2016, the prevailing economic conditions of 2020, and the massive increase in the market capitalization of Bitcoin in the ensuing four years, it concluded that the present price is “more bullish” than expected: “Despite having a market capitalization 15 times larger in 2020 than in 2016, Bitcoin showed a more bullish price movement during the 3rd Halving event.”

https://preview.redd.it/pd26ci5en6951.png?width=912&format=png&auto=webp&s=0feabe20422b0aa13e8b8c6e80991ed63ddc5157
Disclaimer: The above market commentary is based on technical analysis using historical pricing data, and is for reference only. It does not serve as investment or trading advice.
About Coinviva:
Coinviva aims to create the best crypto financial services ecosystem for both institutional and individual investors. We provide reliable fiat funding options, excellent trading liquidity, bank security level custody and one-stop high liquidity provision on-site & off-site. Our founding management team all come from top tiered investment banking (e.g. JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America Merrill Lynch), with fully comprehensive financial institution operation experience.
Homepage: https://coinviva.com/
Telegram: https://t.me/coinviva
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Bitcoin Market Weekly Report - Week of 29/06/2020

Bitcoin Market Weekly Report - Week of 29/06/2020
Bitcoin has been trading sideways in a tight price range from $9,000 to $10,000 since the beginning of May 2020. As a result, its 10-day volatility has now fallen to a new year-to-date low. Looking at the tightened price moves through Bollinger Bands further implies a growing contraction in the cryptocurrency’s volatility.

https://preview.redd.it/wdnind6kns751.png?width=980&format=png&auto=webp&s=6e51b1ed426ff449c09d0b316a32d14093aeb179
A period of low volatility ends up in a breakout. But it is difficult to predict the direction of Bitcoin’s next big move. As shown in the chart below, Bitcoin is trading inside a symmetrical triangle, its price fluctuating within the pattern’s contracting upper and lower trendlines. Since the Triangle appears after Bitcoin’s 150 percent price rally, its bias is to the upside. That puts Bitcoin en route to new 2020 highs.

https://preview.redd.it/w1m2d9knns751.png?width=980&format=png&auto=webp&s=ac596c6c15f62ac13ed96c383864a46065c3aad7
Review of the week:
Former Wall Street investor Tone Vays summarised this week that because of Bitcoin’s high correlation with the stock market (S&P 500), BTC will be stuck in the $6,000 to $10,000 range until 2021. On a technical level, he added, Bitcoin’s daily relative strength index, or RSI, breaking below a long-term trendline in June came at the same time as higher Bitcoin price levels compared to May. And if bears win out, a potential low for BTC/USD should lie in the $7,000 zone, with an RSI of around 30. Bitcoin is more likely to break this consolidation to the downside rather than the upside.
Disclaimer: The above market commentary is based on technical analysis using historical pricing data, and is for reference only. It does not serve as investment or trading advice.

About Coinviva:
Coinviva aims to create the best crypto financial services ecosystem for both institutional and individual investors. We provide reliable fiat funding options, excellent trading liquidity, bank security level custody and one-stop high liquidity provision on-site & off-site. Our founding management team all come from top tiered investment banking (e.g. JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America Merrill Lynch), with fully comprehensive financial institution operation experience.
Homepage: https://coinviva.com/
Telegram: https://t.me/coinviva
submitted by Coinviva to u/Coinviva [link] [comments]

The Day Advances | Monthly FIRE Portfolio Update - January 2020

The day advanced as if to light some work of mine
Thoreau, Walden
This is my thirty-eighth portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal.
Portfolio goal
My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars).
This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent.
Portfolio summary
Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $813 282
Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $45 802
Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $83 162
Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $110 472
Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $178 121
Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $34 965
Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $272 399
Telstra shares (TLS) – $2 046
Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $8 970
NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $6 492
Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $106 701
Secured physical gold – $17 252
Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $14 755
Bitcoin – $153 530
Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) – $18 365
Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) – $2 534
BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 477
Total portfolio value: $1 873 325 (+$94 067)
Asset allocation
Australian shares – 42.8% (2.2% under)
Global shares – 22.6%
Emerging markets shares – 2.4%
International small companies – 3.1%
Total international shares – 28.1% (1.9% under)
Total shares – 70.9% (4.1% under)
Total property securities – 0.2% (0.2% over)
Australian bonds – 4.5%
International bonds – 9.5%
Total bonds – 14.0% (1.0% under)
Gold – 6.6%
Bitcoin – 8.2%
Gold and alternatives – 14.8% (4.8% over)
Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.
Comments
This month saw exceptional growth in the portfolio, with a net increase of $94 000 after a small fall last month.
[Chart]
This is the fastest growth in the past half year. It is also the second largest absolute increase in over three years of measurement.
[Chart]
As the histogram below - which counts the frequency of occurrences in a specified range of monthly value changes (with red denoting losses) - makes clear, this is one of the most positive outcomes in the three year record.
[Chart]
The sources of portfolio growth were generally buoyant global and Australian share markets. Just under half of the growth was also due to an increase in the price of both gold securities and Bitcoin. In addition, even bond holdings increased in value over the period.
Distribution payments from the Vanguard retail funds, as well as the exchange-traded funds VAS, VGS and A200 were made through this month.
These totalled around $14 000 and have begun to be gradually fed back into the portfolio. This is a process which will occur through to June - with new investments twice per month. So far this has led to additional purchases in Vanguard's Australian shares exchange-traded fund (VAS) to maintain the target allocation of Australian equities making up 60 per cent of all equity holdings.
The bond allocation of the portfolio continues to be notionally under its target, but has not yet reached a position where further balancing investments are warranted. Fully excluding the value of Bitcoin, for example, it still sits on its target allocation of 15 per cent of the portfolio.
If the same calculation is done for equities, they sit just above their target, at 77 per cent, and have drifted higher since early last year. Over the past months my position has been to take no portfolio balancing actions based purely on the volatile value of Bitcoin over time, and this remains my approach.
There is no perfect answer to this issue - assigning no value to Bitcoin and ignoring it for asset allocation purposes is inconsistent with its role in the portfolio. Pushing either equity or bond allocations sharply out of target boundaries merely due to short-term Bitcoin movements is also not warranted. Taking a backcast 'moving average' approach might be one statistical solution, but I am not yet convinced it would do more than moderate the appearance of the issue.
While expenditure has been higher over the holiday period, on average the gap between the rolling three-year average of distributions and credit card expenditure continues to close, and sits at just over a $300 per month gap at present.
Flags of convenience - estimating hedging in the portfolio
This month, out of a curiosity carried over from my recent review of my bond holdings, I have found the time to review of the overall currency hedging position of the portfolio.
There are some excellent online research papers (pdf) and blog pieces, such as this one from Passive Investing Australia, for those interested in learning more about some of the associated issues.
Currency risks have never previously been an object of much detailed thought on the journey. Rather, I had tracked a basic measure of broader exposure to foreign assets (including foreign equities, property securities, gold and more recently Bitcoin).
The additional issue of whether my exposure to these assets was unhedged (meaning exposure to gains and losses from the relative movement in the Australian dollar and the foreign currencies) or hedged was not really front of mind.
I suppose I had a dim awareness that some elements of the Vanguard retail funds that have until recently dominated the portfolio were hedged (for example, around 30 per cent of the Vanguard High Growth Diversified funds equity position is currency hedged), and judged that there was likely a well-considered rationale behind the amount of this hedging.
The first step to understanding where any exposures exist is to understand and measure the current state of affairs. As of today, this is broadly as set out below:
The decision to invest in Vanguard's International Shares ETF (VGS), which is unhedged, is a significant event in this regard.
The chart below shows the overall level of currency hedging in the international equity portfolio. Investments in VGS commenced from July 2019, and have started to affect the level of hedging.
[Chart]
As future contributions flow into VGS - absent any other action - a historically quite stable level of hedging will continue to fall. So far this is just a trend I am monitoring, until I have completed more research and thinking on the best approach in this area.
There are many complicated, and some unknowable, issues to consider and balance in hedging decisions, such as the likely denomination of future costs, and the historical and future relationships between domestic currencies and equity markets. None avail themselves of short or easy answers. Until I have thought my way through them more fully, I remain hesitant to make any definitive decisions.
Progress
Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below.
Measure Portfolio All Assets
Portfolio Objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 85.2% 115.9%
Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 103.9% 141.4%
Total expenses – $89 000 pa 83.3% 113.3%
Summary
This month has seen rapid progress, propelling the portfolio closer to both old and new goals. The portfolio gains this month have already closed nearly half of the additional distance created by increasing my portfolio target at the beginning of the year.
The psychological forward push from distributions performance across 2019 (including, pleasingly, seeing it recognised here) has added to this sense of momentum. Additionally, this month I have also crossed the threshold to the target portfolio size needed to achieve 'credit card FI', a long-standing measure I have tracked.
The long summer break that has just ended in some ways seemed like a foretaste of what some versions of financial independence could feel like. With the minimum of planning there was time to read, rest, exercise and write largely as I pleased.
Returning to work following this has been infused with an unusual sense of being a temporary visitor in a new workplace. There is a greater philosophical detachment, in observing its rituals and rhythms, and less of a desire to seek to shape or resist its minutiae. Rather, what I have focused on is seeking to more deliberately make use of the freedoms it does not constrain, and pursue the best and most interesting use of the time that is outside of work hours.
Through these recent strong Australian and US equity markets, this article has been a useful reminder of the 'survivorship' risks of focusing a FI target too narrowly on past performance.
This excellent recent piece from Aussie HIFIRE has also, from another direction, usefully focused on separating out the decisions that do, and do not, materially matter in planning and executing on a passive indexing strategy over the long-term. For a challenging and entirely heterodox view on the potential long-term movement of equity markets upwards from here, this article has been thought-provoking.
Finally, this month I have been discovering the Jolly Swagman podcast, which has long and fascinating interviews with the ex-head of the Reserve Bank of Australia, and Nobel Prize winning US economist Robert Shiller speaking on bubbles and narrative economics.
During the long restful hours of summer break, the day has advanced. Though clouds may come in time, as the year starts - at least - the way forward looks bright.
The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
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Your heresy shall stay your feet – why you shouldn’t just invest in equities

The most popular approach to reaching FIRE here in Australia seems to be investing solely in equities, either Australian only or with some international shares as well.
It’s a strategy expounded by some of the more prominent bloggers and any questions on Reddit or the like about how to invest to reach FIRE usually get a bunch of responses talking about various equities only portfolios.
Given the great returns that shares have had historically and especially over the last 10 years or so, it’s easy to see why this is a popular strategy. Which is why I wanted to write about how it’s probably not actually going to be the best idea for most people.
Quick disclaimer: As is always the case you should not plan your finances around what some random person on the internet says. Everything which is written here is of a general nature at most and is certainly not specific professional advice for you and you should not be relying on it when making decisions. Whilst every endeavour is made to provide accurate information at the time of writing you should be talking to a licensed professional about any specific areas of your finances, taxes etc. Also, it’s going to be really embarrassing if it all goes pear shaped and you have to explain that it did so because you read about something from a random blogger. Moving on!
I live in Australia, why do I need to invest in equities in other countries?
There are certainly some very good reasons to invest in Australian shares. You don’t have to worry about currency movements as much, there aren’t any annoying forms to have to fill out so that other countries don’t tax you more than they should, you’re supporting Australian companies and workers etc.
There are also a lot of problems with this though. One of the problems that is frequently brought up is that in Australia the 10 biggest companies make up about 40% of the index. The below is from Vanguard’s factsheet for VAS and it shows that the top ten companies make up 42.0% of the ASX 300 as of 31st August.
Which is obviously a pretty big percentage, but isn’t actually that unusual globally as per the below chart. Australia is really around the middle of the pack, although a lot of the countries where the top 10 make up smaller percentages of the index have much bigger markets.
What is more of a problem to my mind at least is that so much of the Australian market is focussed on just two sectors, Financials and Materials.
The Financials sector makes up 31% of the index, and in fact the big 4 banks are about 21% of the entire index. Given that they’re almost entirely domestically focussed with few growth opportunities here and with a very large amount of their earnings coming from residential mortgages in what seems to me to be a very highly valued property market, I’m not super keen on having my money invested only in Australia.
Similarly with Materials making up about 17.5% and most of this being companies that dig stuff out of the ground and export it and are largely reliant on continued good relations with China, it doesn’t strike me as being a great growth sector either.
I could be wrong on all of this of course (and have been wrong about all sorts of investment ideas in the past) but personally I would prefer a bit more in the way of diversification and growth prospects because otherwise you’re essentially taking a bet on housing staying strong and China continuing to buy our resources.
If I look at MSCI World ex-Australia (VGS), Financials and Materials are a much smaller part of the index so by buying international equities I have a lot more diversification and I get exposure to industries which have lower representations in Australia like IT, Health Care and the like and which are probably likely to see more growth in my opinion. Again, I could be wrong about all of this but that’s part of my thinking here.
There is also some diversification benefit from investing in global equities, in that although the Australian sharemarket is likely to closely follow what global markets are doing ie if they go up or down so will the Australian market but the reverse doesn’t necessarily hold true.
So if the Australian share market has a fall due to overinflated property prices for example, stockmarkets areoudn the globe are unlikely to get hit on the back of this. So to me it makes a lot of sense to invest not just in Australian equities but International ones as well.
Why should people invest in anything other than equities?
I mentioned in my post explaining bonds that I actually have about 21% in investments other than equities. That’s a mix of cash, fixed income, REITs, and infrastructure investments.
I also talked about one of my favourite FIRE bloggers the FI Explorer having about 30% of his investments in assets like bonds, gold, and bitcoin as of his last update.
The idea of investing in those other asset classes is that hopefully when equities fall or aren’t doing much, these other assets will go up in value. Historically speaking bonds tend to go up in value when equities are falling significantly. Likewise gold tends to rise when stocks go down. I’m less convinced about Bitcoin as an investment but it’s worked as a hedge so far is my understanding, and it’s not as though it’s me who is invested in it.
As someone who has spent a lot of time studying finance for both formal qualifications and my own enjoyment (yes really) I’m very aware of the fact that equities are a pretty volatile asset class.
I’m not talking about the stupid stuff on the news about billions being wiped off or added on to the value of the sharemarket that the media loves to talk about, that’s irrelevant because what it actually means is the Australian share market went down or up 0.1% or something similar that I don’t care about.
What I do care about are the big falls in the value of the market, and thus my investments. It doesn’t actually make much of a difference to me mathematically at this point in time because I’m still a long way from hitting my FIRE number, in fact it’s actually a net benefit because I can invest at a lower price.
Psychologically though it can make a difference. I talk a lot about the math behind FIRE, but in a lot of ways the behavioural aspects are more important.
I can tell you from experience that it’s not a lot of fun seeing your net worth drop by $100k or more when the market decides to go down by double digit percentages as it did for the last quarter of 2018. As much as you might assume it’s only temporary it doesn’t feel like that at the time and you start wondering if this time is going to be different.
I would say that I’m actually far more relaxed about this stuff than most people because after 20 plus years in finance (mostly in equities/equity linked products) which includes the dot com crash, the GFC, the Greek debt crisis, the taper tantrum and all the other moves up and down over that time period I’ve got a fair idea what it feels like to see my net worth drop and be nervous about the state of the markets and my investments.
Certainly from the number of conversations I’ve had with people who freak out about a 2% drop it seems like I’m a lot calmer about the volatility of shares. Despite that I still want to reduce the chance of big falls in the overall value of my portfolio as much as possible, to have some investments which zig when equities zag so to speak.
Investments like treasury bonds are great for this, because they tend to appreciate in value when the market falls as shown in the graph below taken from this excellent post showing what bonds have done when stocks crashed over the last 30 years or so. The numbers are for the US but would likely be very similar for Oz.
The chart below from this post by one of my favourite finance bloggers (Ben Carlson at a Wealth of Common Sense) shows the performance of stocks and bonds during bear markets over the last 70 years or so, again this is for the US rather than Australia.
The same author wrote this amusing post after Bank of America declared the 60/40 (stocks/bonds) portfolio dead. 60/40 is the rule of thumb asset allocation for US investors, here in Australia your super fund will tell you they’re more like 70/30 even though they’re probably more like 90/10. Again, that’s a post for another time. In any case, as he says in the post a 60/40 portfolio gave you an 8.1% return vs 9.5% for stocks, but had 40% less volatility. I’m happy to trade some return for a lot less volatility.
My point is that although having some money in bonds is not going to be enough to stop the value of my portfolio falling a bit especially given that most of my portfolio is still made up of equities, it will hopefully be enough to stop it from being cut in half as would have been the case for equity only portfolios in the GFC.
So bonds to me are a safety net, both emotionally and financially. Having that safety net in place means that I’m more likely to be able to stay the course. However depending on the timing of any stock (or bond) market crashes they may actually help me reach my goal faster. If there is a big stock market crash right before I would have hit FIRE and bonds haven’t been too much of a drag in performance along the way, then bonds will reduce my losses and help me get to my FIRE number faster than an equity only portfolio will.
What else can you invest in to diversify?
As I mentioned above another asset which can serve well as a diversifier is gold, although personally I don’t like it because even though it has worked historically there is no real reason why it should do so. Warren Buffett has this great quote about gold. “[Gold] gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head.” So I don’t invest in gold personally, but if others want to I can see how it makes sense based off what has happened historically.
Similary with Bitcoin which I think of as being even sillier, yes it has worked as a diversifier in the short time it has been around but it has even less utility than gold and basically is worth something only because there are a bunch of people who are willing to keep believing it is worth something. Maybe it’ll keep on working, maybe it won’t, I’m not planning on buying any either way.
As I said above I do have some other investments like property (REITs) and infrastructure as well, I don’t think these are necessarily great for helping me out if the stock market crashes but they may help a little, and in the meantime in years when the stock market goes up but not by much these may well do better for me. In fact over the last 20 years for the US, both bonds and REITs have outperformed stocks.
So maybe I should actually have more money in bonds and REITs than what I currently do!
Does diversification help when you retire?
Dan at Ordinary Dollar has done some great work on optimal asset allocation and longer retirement lengths looking at a mix of Australian and US stocks and bonds.
Combining the findings of the two posts, if you have an 80/20 portfolio you get pretty close to the same probability of a succesful retirement as 100% equities but with a lot less volatility. Sounds like a pretty good deal to me!
It also shows that a 100% allocation to Australian equities (or to US equities for that matter) is not as effective as a more diversfied portfolio, particularly over longer time frames.
The benefits of diversification
What I’m aiming for in my portfolio is a mix of assets that will go well in most circumstances without too much volatilty, and when stock markets crash won’t fall by as much. This will help me out psychologically by having smaller falls in net worth along the way so I don’t panic when markets are falling, and as I’ve said above might well get me to FIRE faster than an all equities portfolio anyway.
It will also help me when I have retired because as it turns out having some diversification actually gives me a higher likelihood of a successful retirement!
Are you all in on equities, or do you have other assets to diversify your portfolio? Has this post changed your mind?
Original post with pretty pictures and graphs here.
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Bitcoin Market Weekly Report - Week of 22/06/2020

Bitcoin Market Weekly Report - Week of 22/06/2020

Coinviva BTC/USD Hourly Chart
After failing to reach $10,000 and dropping below $9,500 the week before, the Bitcoin price was able to find support at $9,250 last week. It formed a sideway channel that ranged between $9,250 and $9,600. The intraday volatility remained low throughout the week, with no clear sense of direction.
If the volatility picks up in the coming week and the BTC price breaks below the current support line at $9,250, then a lower low would form and a downward trend would be confirmed. If the volatility remains low throughout the week, the BTC price would continue to trade within the sideway channel between $9,250 and $9,600. Wait for volatility to pick up before determining the direction of the trade.
Disclaimer: The above market commentary is based on technical analysis using historical pricing data, and is for reference only. It does not serve as investment or trading advice.

About Coinviva:
Coinviva aims to create the best crypto financial services ecosystem for both institutional and individual investors. We provide reliable fiat funding options, excellent trading liquidity, bank security level custody and one-stop high liquidity provision on-site & off-site. Our founding management team all come from top tiered investment banking (e.g. JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America Merrill Lynch), with fully comprehensive financial institution operation experience.
Homepage: https://coinviva.com/
Telegram: https://t.me/coinviva
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Cryptarbitrage’s Deribit Spreadsheets Calculation Tools

Perpetuals, Futures, and Options can present quite a steep learning curve, fear not though as we have an incredible collection of Google Sheets and Excel Spreadsheets to help both the basic as well as most advanced users! We can also strongly recommend reading our Educational and Market Research articles as many traders find them to be invaluable resources.

One of our talented Community Managers, Cryptarbitrage, has created and maintains to the best of his ability a series of tools to both help Deribit users learn more about BTC & ETH Perpetuals, Futures, and Options as well support more advanced traders increasing technical needs.
A short introduction by Cryptarbitrage:
"Although I was aware of options beforehand I only started properly researching them in early 2018 after I discovered the Bitcoin options on Deribit. I do not need much encouragement to build a spreadsheet for something so quickly set about created an Excel sheet that would show me the profit and loss of any options position I entered.
This was a great way to learn all the profit and loss formulas for each type of option as well as how different option combinations interacted with each other. As soon as this sheet was complete I was building positions I still didn’t even know the proper names for so was very much learning by doing. It was immediately obvious to me though that options were the type of instruments I wanted to trade.
After a few months and once I’d done some more reading and was more confident I actually knew what I was talking about I began creating shareable versions in google sheets and sharing them with the Deribit community."
Feel free to ask for some help or guidance in our English Telegram Community.
Cryptarbitrage’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/cryptarbitrage
Cryptarbitrage’s Telegram: u/Cryptarbitrage
English Telegram Community: https://t.me/deribit

Deribit's Position Builder
Link: pb.deribit.com
It is invaluable to be able to see the potential profit/loss, implied volatility of a single or multiple positions quickly, and adhoc. This allows you to check the results of either simulated positions, the live positions of your account, or a combination of these all across multiple instruments including Perpetuals, Futures, and Options at the same time.
The Position Builder can be used to analyze the results of either existing or simulated results. As it uses market data from Deribit it provides a quick tool to check the results before adding positions into a portfolio.
Development Credit to the core Deribit development team

Scenario Risk Analysis “Maximum Pain” - Excel Spreadsheet
Link: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ANS1CgApJCDTX5ZjUwO_fegU7Z-QVSdt/view
A resource to visualize the Open Interest at the present moment as well as the current price of maximum pain for option buyers.

Basic Resource Tools

Simple Perpetual/Future Position Size Calculator - Google Sheet
Google Sheet Link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gQh11IJgb4HOt8B-HDWG_HX9hta1832piynuI4k-v-A/edit?usp=sharing
This spreadsheet allows you, in both BTC, ETH, and USD, to provide the amount you are willing to risk and to determine the relative size of the position you should take to achieve this.

Simple Options Profit/Loss - Google Sheet
Google Sheet Link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FRbKfvlr721ZIyPNsLwI0_WtGhuvdWfWLC-UOE1Yi1A/edit?usp=sharing
A means to learn how to manually create your own options mathematics which can be applied across your own spreadsheets, programs, and possibly automated trading tools.

Simple Perpetual/Futures Liquidation Price - Google Sheet
Google Sheet Link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tcb-NzRV_ATDlkKi8LqTorpGYQyv0DQgj9W_AbIFJ2M/edit?usp=sharing
An easy and quick to use tool to assess your estimated liquidation price, present Leverage as well as expected Maintenance Margin requirements.

Deribit Margin Requirement Calculations - Google Sheet
Google Sheet Link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xSb8Y_nVF1-8ICZHfQNjDWaeqBjqQfGzrYR7Ymgvi84/edit?usp=sharing
A simple tool to understand and visualize both your Initial Margin (IM) and Maintenance Margin (MM) requirements for Perpetuals, Futures, and Options.

Simple Leverage Examples - Google Sheet
Google Sheet Link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1CIcEq-0V2LeNeMos68MdMN-DqEDvKVclcqc5LVhFSAo/edit#gid=0
A quick and easy way to understand how leverage works on Deribit!


Education

Introduction to Cryptocurrency Options (BTC & ETH)
Link: https://insights.deribit.com/exchange-updates/introduction-to-bitcoin-options-profit-loss/
An introduction specifically to BTC Options, which can be applied to ETH Options, describing the basics of options and the specifics of cryptocurrency options on Deribit.
Introduction to Leverage and Margin
Link: https://insights.deribit.com/education/introduction-to-leverage-and-margin/
An introduction to Leverage and Margin on the Deribit Exchange.
Hedging the USD value of your BTC or ETH on Deribit
Link: https://insights.deribit.com/education/hedging-usd-value-by-shorting-1x/
An introduction as to how to peg your present cryptocurrency holdings (BTC or ETH) at the present market value of BTC/USD or ETH/USD for each asset on Deribit.
Comprehensive Resource Tools
Comprehensive Options Profit/Loss - Google Sheet
Google Sheet Link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vWn9f7kJ73ufuP8qa05Ct76DO58WkwyXVsGcUP2fkMY/edit#gid=1852961659
Learn how to create advanced multi-leg option positions as well as test possible edge cases or specific scenarios.

Market Data

If you are a retail trader and would like to pull historical data we recommend you use our API. If you would like data prepared or more specific data we recommend taking a look at our data providing partners.
Deribit Perpetual Historical Funding Rates - Google Sheet
Google Sheet Link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XHLiXHdFWKeXBc2WaqCp5-amcHzAyuorp7bW-Y8XfXI/edit?usp=sharing
A simple sheet to either manually check or use as your data source for funding rates across both BTC Perpetuals and ETH Perpetuals on Deribit.

Excel Tools:

Live Deribit Trading Data - Excel Spreadsheet
Link: https://insights.deribit.com/exchange-updates/live-data-in-excel/
A fully-featured Excel spreadsheet that can either serve as your central resource to pull live data from the Deribit Exchange or can form the base of building your own advanced spreadsheet.
Pull Old Data with an Excel Spreadsheet
Link: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1e_cWT2XZ_OXuckobcTMJU4lLI72zrzsdRkZWY-xmghE/edit
This can be appended to the “Live Deribit Trading Data - Excel Spreadsheet” or included in your very own to pull historical data.
Pull Options’ Greeks with an Excel Spreadsheet
Link: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1zaj1YIP6k3sQuG2QSqzkT77rxqdZDTZ5UiJCnqScgPU/edit
This can be appended to the “Live Deribit Trading Data Excel Spreadsheet” or included in your very own spreadsheet.
Pull Open Interest with an Excel Spreadsheet
Link: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1SRRAAmDj8c75AzDwqvDO4i1dCnXQMRLC_C6wUMLAo-E/edit
This can pull the present Open Interest of an instrument using the aforementioned “Live Deribit Trading Data - Excel Spreadsheet” or demonstrate the functionality for you to incorporate in your own spreadsheet.
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Credit must go to Cryptarbitrage for the creation of all Google Sheets and extended Code Snippets for Excel and Lennard for the creation of the original Excel Spreadsheet.
June - 2020
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Over the past 100 days, Grayscale has bought every third bitcoin

Over the past 100 days, Grayscale has bought every third bitcoin

Over the past 100 days, Grayscale has bought every third bitcoin
The Grayscale Investments cryptocurrency investment fund acquired every third bitcoin mined in the last 100 days. And in April, the fund bought 50% of all ETH mined. At the same time, despite the financial crisis and the fall of the cryptocurrency market in March, shares of Grayscale crypto funds in the first quarter of 2020 attracted record investments, which indicates a growing interest of institutional investors in the crypto industry. Why does the company need so many coins, what is its current position regarding the crypto market and what role does it play on it?

Grayscale Investors Believe in Bitcoin

Grayscale Investments, a subsidiary of Digital Currency Group (DCG), owner of the famous crypto media CoinDesk. The investment fund is the largest institutional holder of bitcoin. The company’s main product is the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), with which accredited investors can earn on bitcoin without actually owning it. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust tracks the price of bitcoin based on the TradeBlock XBX index.
Grayscale accumulates Bitcoin on an impressive scale. Reddit user under the nickname u/parakite noted that the fund added 60,762 BTC ($548.3 million on the day of publication) from February 7 to May 17. This is a third of the total number of bitcoins mined over the past three months.
The user made a table showing how the number of bitcoins in GBTC changed:
https://preview.redd.it/lb4nzuxvg9451.png?width=364&format=png&auto=webp&s=72b699f4b4c15a5b596e4030747c9ca574ee49f0
As you can see, the procurement rate of the MTC fund has been increasing since the end of 2019. GBTC has become more aggressive in its acquisitions since early April before the upcoming halving of the Bitcoin network. About 34% of the 60,762 MTC were purchased 17 days before the reduction in remuneration to the miners.
As of May 17, GBTC under management had a total of 343 954 BTC. This is 21% more than the 283,192 BTC held by the fund 100 days earlier. In value terms, the portfolio grew from $2.77 billion to $3.37 billion.
“Grayscale is just one of many, albeit the largest, ETFs that people use to buy bitcoin, not wanting to mess around with private keys and other problems,” commented u/parakite. — There is a demand for it. The supply is declining. Let’s see where we will be in 100 days.”
88% of Grayscale customers are institutional investors. Most likely, the sharp increase in the pace of the purchase of military-technical cooperation in addition to the last halving is due to the desire of investors to hedge risks during the developing crisis.

GBTC stock price over the past year, according to Yahoo.Finance. The price of shares (shares) of GBTC does not coincide with the price of the MTC, it depends on the mood of investors and can be traded with a premium or a significant discount. Usually it follows bitcoin, but sometimes the trends diverge. So, the difference between the July and current MTC rates is 20–30%, and between the same GBTC shares it is about 70%.

Grayscale also bought half of ETH mined in April

Aggressive Grayscale crypto purchases have recently been spotted with respect to ether. So, by April 24, the company had bought about 756 539 ETNs (accurate data are not publicly available) for its Ethereum Trust fund. This is about 48.4% of all 1.5 million coins mined since the beginning of this year. As a result, the company already owns 1% of all coins in circulation and only increases the pace of purchases. The first user to notice this was Reddit under the nickname u/nootropicat.
According to the latest quarterly report by Grayscale, the flow of investments in ETN reached a record level for the first three months of 2020 — $110 million. This is a very sharp increase, given that total investments in ETN for the previous two years amounted to $95.8 million. The total demand for the Ethereum fund grew over the quarter is almost 2.5 times compared with the fourth quarter of 2019.
From the beginning of the year until the end of April, the company issued 5.23 million shares of the fund at 0.09427052 ETN apiece.
At the same time, shares are traded with a premium of 420% relative to the current price of the coin — $92 against $17.70. That is, investors are willing to pay extra pretty much not to deal with cryptocurrency on their own.
Most likely, the increase in the rate of purchase of the coin is associated with the upcoming upgrade of the network to the state of Ethereum 2.0. It can take place at the end of July, but, most likely, it will happen not earlier than the end of the year. After the upgrade, the network will become more scalable and there will be the possibility of staking — validators will be able to receive passive income for providing their funds to confirm the blocks.
The crypto market, by the way, is also preparing for the transition of the ecosystem to a new stage. ETH has grown 55% since the crash in March, from $110 to $202 on the day of publication. At the end of April, CoinDesk drew attention to the increase in the number of long positions in ETH futures — this indicates expectations for further growth of the coin.

Last quarter — the most successful in the history of the company

In May, Grayscale released a report on the results of the first quarter of this year. “Despite the decline in risky assets this quarter, Grayscale’s assets continue to approach record highs, as does our share of the digital asset market,” the document says. And this despite the coronavirus pandemic, the global recession and the traditional cryptocurrency market volatility.
A record $503.7 million investment was raised in the first quarter. This is almost twice the previous quarterly maximum of $254 million in the third quarter of last year and accounts for 83% of the total capital of $1.07 billion raised for the entire 2019. New investors accounted for $160 million of raised funds. The main products of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust and Grayscale Ethereum Trust raised $388.9 million and $110 million, respectively. It is noteworthy that the company reduced the premium on stocks of funds relative to the price of assets.
88% of investments came from institutional investors, among which hedge funds prevail; 5% — from accredited individuals, 4% — from pension accounts (yes, pension funds are extremely conservative in nature, but also invest in bitcoin against the background of a decrease in the profitability of other assets); 3% came from family offices, and 38% of customers invested in several products at once.
It is noteworthy that two years ago the share of institutional investors was about 50% — it is obvious that they no longer consider bitcoin as something criminal. “Many of our investors see digital assets as medium and long-term investment opportunities and the main component of their investment portfolios. Quarterly inflows doubled to $ 503.7 million, demonstrating that demand is reaching new peak levels even in conditions of “risk reduction”, the document says.

Today, more than 46.5% of the inflow of funds was attracted from multi-strategic investors. Crypto investors accounted for only 11.2% of the inflow, according to the report.
Grayscale currently operates ten cryptocurrency investment products targeted at institutional investors. They cover PTS, ETN, ETS, BCH, ZEC, XRP, LTC, ZEN, XLM. The value of the assets under his management is more than $3.8 billion. GBTC is the most demanded product, most investors invest in it and it takes about 1.7% of the total volume of circulating bitcoins.

Aggregate quarterly flow of funds to different Grayscale products. Pay attention to the growing share of investors diversifying portfolios with products tied to altcoins.
Since January of this year, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust has been registered with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). According to it, the company provides quarterly and annual reports in the form of 10-K. The status makes it possible to sell shares of a trust in the secondary market after 6 months, rather than 12, as before, and also increases the confidence of conservative investors. Other products comply with OTCQX reporting standards in the OTC market and are approved by the US Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FINRA) for public offering.

Amount of assets managed by Grayscale as of May 20, 2020.
It is noteworthy that the news about the success of Grayscale comes amid news of how panicky investors in traditional assets are fleeing from market turmoil. So, the largest fund managers — BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street Global Advisors — lost several trillion in capitalization of their assets, and BlackRock in the first quarter for the first time in five years saw a net outflow of funds from its long-term investment products.

Bitcoin is the best asset for hedging portfolios in crisis

At the end of April, Grayscale also released a separate report on the analysis of the impact of regulators during a pandemic and the crisis caused by it and how it affected the bitcoin and cryptocurrency market as a whole.
The document said fiat currencies are at risk of devaluation as central banks print more and more money. Even the US dollar, which is the world’s reserve currency, risks being devalued if the US Federal Reserve continues to print the currency in trillions. A decrease in interest rates to zero and negative values deprives government bonds of the status of “safe haven” during the crisis.
Therefore, investors are trying to diversify their portfolios with alternative instruments. Cryptocurrencies are the best choice for this, according to the authors of the report. The text emphasizes the historical significance of gold as a global standard, but it is noted that in the modern digital world it is becoming increasingly burdensome for investors — it has complex logistics. Bitcoin seems resistant to the problems that other assets face. Therefore, in times of economic uncertainty, the first cryptocurrency is one of the best assets that investors can use to hedge their portfolios. The coin performs better than any other asset, including fiat currencies, government bonds, and traditional commodities like gold. The authors of the report emphasize that Bitcoin has already begun to show signs of becoming a protective asset.
At the same time, the company believes that bitcoin is an excellent asset not only in times of crisis. So, in December 2019, Managing Director of Grayscale Investments Michael Sonnenshine said that the company expects an influx of investments in bitcoin after the transfer of $68 trillion of savings between generations in the next 25 years. Today, this capital is invested in traditional assets, but a significant part of these wealth millennials will invest in cryptocurrencies. Already, according to him, investments in GBTC are among the five most popular among young people, ahead of, for example, investments in Microsoft and Netflix.

Finally

The unprecedented financial measures taken by the US Federal Reserve, as well as the worsening recession, are forcing even the most conservative investors to rethink their current strategies and portfolio composition. Many of them are increasingly beginning to appreciate the fixed emission and non-correlation of Bitcoin — it is becoming a tool for risk diversification. Growing institutional interest is driving the acceleration of coin prices.
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Bitcoin Market Weekly Report - Week of 01/06/2020

Bitcoin Market Weekly Report - Week of 01/06/2020

Coinviva BTC/USD Hourly Chart
The Bitcoin price continued to go sideway and form a range between $8,600 and $9,700, indicating a lack of directional movement similar to the stock market. The current resistance is at $9,800, while the support is at $8,600.
The market is likely to trade in a range bound next week until both volume and volatility start picking up again. If the BTC price drops below $9,000 while forming a low at $8,800, it could be an opportunity to accumulate and aim for a profit near $9,600.
Review of the week:
On May 28, the Digital Dollar Project, which was founded by former leaders of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and professional services company Accenture, released its white paper with a 30-page document detailing the potential applications of a CBDC. The project aims to be a pioneer as a way to explore the utilization of the digital dollar and how it can be used, including how it can be used in a crisis. But to make the project work within regulatory bounds, it explicitly does not seek to upend the current monetary system of the U.S. Several while it mentions maintaining the format of currency flowing from the Federal Reserve to financial institutions and then to the public to meet Know Your Customer or Anti-Money Laundering requirements. As for privacy, a central concern, CFTC’s former chairman Daniel Gorfine said: “This is a very meaty and important area. Ultimately, these are policy choices that need to be made by the government.”
Disclaimer: The above market commentary is based on technical analysis using historical pricing data, and is for reference only. It does not serve as investment or trading advice.
About Coinviva:
Coinviva aims to create the best crypto financial services ecosystem for both institutional and individual investors. We provide reliable fiat funding options, excellent trading liquidity, bank security level custody and one-stop high liquidity provision on-site & off-site. Our founding management team all come from top tiered investment banking (e.g. JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America Merrill Lynch), with fully comprehensive financial institution operation experience.
Homepage: https://coinviva.com/
Telegram: https://t.me/coinviva
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Market Weekly Report - Week of 25/05/2020

Market Weekly Report - Week of 25/05/2020

Coinviva BTC-USD Hourly Chart
The Bitcoin price was unable to break the $10,000 barrier last week and continued to show signs of a reversal after forming a lower high near $9,300. The BTC price is settling at around $9,200 at the moment.
The current support of the BTC price is at $8,900. If the price drops below $8,900, it will likely test the next support at $8,500 and then bounce back to the $9,000 level. The market will likely go sideways unless the volatility increases after testing the support level. If the volatility continues to increase, the price may experience further drop to $8,000.

Review of the week:

Anthony Pompliano, the co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital, pointed out that the driving forces behind real estate and gold (Interest rates dropping, the excess printing of the US dollar, and additionally the recent halving) at the moment would end up being the major drivers and catalysts of Bitcoin, as in when it takes charge.
Aleks Svetski, CEO and co-founder of Bitcoin investment platform Amber, said Bitcoin needs time to solidify its position as an effective investment option in the eyes of the public. This is not a technological revolution, he adds, but a currency revolution that traditionally takes centuries to manifest, whereas in the digital age Bitcoin may take decades to achieve.
Messari's latest report shows the potential of Bitcoin in the market as it is the first time an asset has been created on a computer-based sovereign network. The concept of sovereignty underpins many important properties of Bitcoin. This asset is the only absolutely scarce currency asset in the world, and this particular feature is ensured by a global network of diverse players running all the Bitcoin nodes. Unlike other legal-currency systems today, it is unlikely that any geopolitical tensions surrounding larger economies will limit the value transfer of Bitcoin. Bitcoin is not portable compared to other value-storing assets, such as gold and silver. Unlike gold and silver and other monetary metals, Bitcoin can be sent around the world in a matter of hours, and can be stored safely by individuals with a mnemonic. While it's hard to foresee the coming price volatility of Bitcoin, it's hard to deny the currency's strong fundamentals and resilience in the face of the current economic crisis.
Disclaimer: The above market commentary is based on technical analysis using historical pricing data, and is for reference only. It does not serve as investment or trading advice.

About Coinviva:

Coinviva aims to create the best crypto financial services ecosystem for both institutional and individual investors. We provide reliable fiat funding options, excellent trading liquidity, bank security level custody and one-stop high liquidity provision on-site & off-site. Our founding management team all come from top tiered investment banking (e.g. JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America Merrill Lynch), with fully comprehensive financial institution operation experience.
Homepage: https://coinviva.com/
Telegram: https://t.me/coinviva
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Market Weekly Report - Week of 20/04/2020

Market Weekly Report - Week of 20/04/2020
P95G Market Weekly Report

BTC/USD hourly chart
The Bitcoin price continued to go sideway during most of the week, as volatility has decreased. The price dropped to $6,500 at one point, and was able to recover and reached $7,200 toward the end of the week. It will retest the $7,400 resistance level again soon, with the current support at $7,000.
The BTC price at $7,400 is a key level. If the price breaks above $7,400, it will likely reach $7,650 and test $8,000. However, if the price retraced without breaking through $7,400, it could fall below $7,000 and start a new downward trend.
Reviews of the week:
According to CoinMetrics, USDC’s market capitalization, which equals the amount in circulation since it trades at par for dollars, has jumped 65 percent, from $444 million on March 1 to $734 million at press time. Jeremy Allaire, the Circle CEO and co-founder, explains that as the global coronavirus crisis is accelerating mainstream adoption of blockchain technology, the startup’s new business model has received an unexpected boost, and this time much of the demand is for payments in normal business transactions, not just to move money quickly between cryptocurrency exchanges. As a stablecoin, USDC is designed to hold its value against the dollar, and backed by real-world dollars held in a bank, for which it can be redeemed on demand. Referring to the stablecoin Circle issues in partnership with Coinbase, he said the past several weeks’ explosive interest and growth in USDC have been witnessed: “there is clearly very significant global demand for digital dollars and the use of digital dollars as a new payment medium.”
DCEP (Digital Currency Electronic Payment, DC/EP), which is the name of China’s official central bank digital currency (CBDC), has surfaced with its first mobile wallets being tested at Agricultural Bank of China (ABC). DCEP is reported already in the advanced testing phase in four Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities: Shenzhen, Xiong’an, Chengdu and Suzhou and it is positioning as replacement of M0 and using a two-tier operation delivery system. It shows that it will have the possibility to send and receive offline payments and it is not using a typical blockchain but more of a distributed ledger technology (DLT) style protocol. China is making giant strides in advancing with blockchain technology since China’s president Xi Jinping announced blockchain as one of the country’s technological priorities and advocated to “seize the opportunity” last year.
Disclaimer: The above market commentary is based on technical analysis using historical pricing data, and is for reference only. It does not serve as investment or trading advice.
About Coinviva:
Coinviva aims to create the best crypto financial services ecosystem for both institutional and individual investors. We provide reliable fiat funding options, excellent trading liquidity, bank security level custody and one-stop high liquidity provision on-site & off-site. Our founding management team all come from top tiered investment banking (e.g. JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America Merrill Lynch), with fully comprehensive financial institution operation experience.
Homepage: https://coinviva.com/
Telegram: https://t.me/coinviva

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Coinviva Market Weekly Report - Week of 05/04/2020

Coinviva Market Weekly Report - Week of 05/04/2020

BTC/USD Hourly Chart
The Bitcoin price was able to break out of the upper Keltner channel at $6,540 and reached as high as $7,285 at one point. It went back to $6,818 which is near the resistance level from last December. The higher highs and higher lows show that the price is back on an upward trend.
The BTC price is expected to test the $7,140 resistance next week. If the momentum keeps up, the price can potentially go back to $7,650 in the medium term. For the time-being, wait for the price to break above the Keltner channel again near $7,000 and then enter a long position, with support at around $6,650.
Review of the week:
Despite the economic downturn induced by the coronavirus pandemic, Kraken CEO Jesse Powell predicts that Bitcoin (BTC) and the crypto industry as a whole will perform well in the months ahead. In an interview with Forbes, Powell reveals that while many companies are laying off workers, the San Francisco-based exchange is increasing its staff by nearly 10% due to an uptick in interest in the cryptocurrency market at large ever since the coronavirus surfaced in China. He says that both the cryptocurrency and traditional markets have their share of retail investors who make trades on a whim, and that Bitcoin has remained relatively stable, with the price rebounding by 30% plus last week.
A closely-watched Bitcoin (BTC) whale Joe007, who earned $20 million in realized profits on Bitfinex between February and March, says he expects more pain ahead for the global economy and predicts waves of volatility as governments push to prop up traditional markets and combat a devastating loss of jobs: “It is going to be the biggest economic shock of our generation. It will unfold in waves and over time, giving false hopes and then crushing them. The focus of the crisis will be shifting through different areas. Attempts to alleviate and solve one crisis will lead to more mess.” He expects investors to continue shifting assets to US dollars – a dynamic that pummeled equities and the crypto markets in March.
In a letter to investors, CEO and co-founder of Quantum Economics, Mati Greenspan, says Bitcoin’s recent crash, along with traditional markets, is not surprising. He argues that concerns are overblown regarding whether the leading cryptocurrency still has a future after the volatile pullback: “There seems to be an existential question going around the crypto market at the moment where people are saying that if bitcoin can’t rise in this environment then it probably doesn’t have much of a reason to exist at all. After all, the narrative of using bitcoin as a safe haven in times of financial stress has been a rather strong one throughout the years and so now should really be BTC’s time to shine. Bitcoin was invented to give us an alternative to money that is controlled by governments and banks. The volatility is largely due to the fact that it’s quite new and adoption rates are unstable, which leads to large levels of speculation. So, a measure of success would be to see bitcoin remain on a slow but steady incline, rather than zooming towards the moon due to global uncertainty.”
Disclaimer: The above market commentary is based on technical analysis using historical pricing data, and is for reference only. It does not serve as investment or trading advice.

About Coinviva:
Coinviva aims to create the best crypto financial services ecosystem for both institutional and individual investors. We provide reliable fiat funding options, excellent trading liquidity, bank security level custody and one-stop high liquidity provision on-site & off-site. Our founding management team all come from top tiered investment banking (e.g. JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America Merrill Lynch), with fully comprehensive financial institution operation experience.
Homepage: https://coinviva.com/
Telegram: https://t.me/coinviva
submitted by Coinviva to u/Coinviva [link] [comments]

Coinviva Weekly Report - 2020/03/16

Coinviva Weekly Report - 2020/03/16

BTC/USD daily chart
The Bitcoin price was unable to hold the $8,470 support that was mentioned last week. It fell below $4,000 and erased the gains from the rally that started back in April 2019. It rebounded and settled at $5,200.
The hourly chart showed a flag and pennant pattern when the BTC price took a dive from $7,200 to $5,578 and then $6,091 to $4,550. The volatility has gone down since then. The price is expected to go sideway between $4,700 and $6,000. There is upside potential if the price breaks above $6,000 and can reach $7,000. Due to the recent market volatility, a long position should be paired with a stop loss at $4,990.

BTC/USD hourly chart
Review of the week:
Veteran Wall Street trader and cryptocurrency analyst Tone Vays, a long-term Bitcoin bull, is weighing in on the leading cryptocurrency’s perilous price action. Vays has issued warnings for months that Bitcoin would undergo a major pullback before gearing up for its next long-term bull run, that is back in November of last year, Bitcoin would likely break below $7,000 before May of 2020. In his latest video on the state of the markets, Vays now cautions crypto traders that Bitcoin could sink even lower, despite its recent plunge, below $4,800 before the bear market ends.
Co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital and noted crypto-personality Anthony Pompliano is of the opinion that Bitcoin is just following the pattern laid out by gold in terms of price fluctuations. Referring to the situation as a ‘liquidity crisis,’ he noted that the volatility is exploding with increases levels of illiquidity in the USD market, that is because Bitcoin has a liquid market and investors needed liquidity over anything else thus the selling happens. Putting things in perspective, Bitcoin’s price fall is seen as a regular pattern by many in the industry. While the digital gold narrative is strengthening, non-crypto enthusiasts are now forming a line to buy Bitcoin. The former National Security Agency agent Edward Snowden, in a recent tweet, “This is the first time in a while I’ve felt like buying bitcoin. That drop was too much panic and too little reason.”
Disclaimer: The above market commentary is based on technical analysis using historical pricing data, and is for reference only. It does not serve as investment or trading advice.
About Coinviva:Coinviva aims to create the best crypto financial services ecosystem for both institutional and individual investors. We provide reliable fiat funding options, excellent trading liquidity, bank security level custody and one-stop high liquidity provision on-site & off-site. Our founding management team all come from top tiered investment banking (e.g. JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America Merrill Lynch), with fully comprehensive financial institution operation experience.
Homepage: https://coinviva.com/
Telegram: https://t.me/coinviva
submitted by Coinviva to u/Coinviva [link] [comments]

03-15 06:04 - 'How do think of Bitcoin price would be in week of 03/15/2020?' (self.Bitcoin) by /u/Coinviva removed from /r/Bitcoin within 0-10min

'''

[ BTC/USD daily chart]1
The Bitcoin price was unable to hold the $8,470 support that was mentioned last week. It fell below $4,000 and erased the gains from the rally that started back in April 2019. It rebounded and settled at $5,200.
The hourly chart showed a flag and pennant pattern when the BTC price took a dive from $7,200 to $5,578 and then $6,091 to $4,550. The volatility has gone down since then. The price is expected to go sideway between $4,700 and $6,000. There is upside potential if the price breaks above $6,000 and can reach $7,000. Due to the recent market volatility, a long position should be paired with a stop loss at $4,990.

[BTC/USD hourly chart ]2
Review of the week:
Veteran Wall Street trader and cryptocurrency analyst Tone Vays, a long-term Bitcoin bull, is weighing in on the leading cryptocurrency’s perilous price action. Vays has issued warnings for months that Bitcoin would undergo a major pullback before gearing up for its next long-term bull run, that is back in November of last year, Bitcoin would likely break below $7,000 before May of 2020. In his latest video on the state of the markets, Vays now cautions crypto traders that Bitcoin could sink even lower, despite its recent plunge, below $4,800 before the bear market ends.
Co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital and noted crypto-personality Anthony Pompliano is of the opinion that Bitcoin is just following the pattern laid out by gold in terms of price fluctuations. Referring to the situation as a ‘liquidity crisis,’ he noted that the volatility is exploding with increases levels of illiquidity in the USD market, that is because Bitcoin has a liquid market and investors needed liquidity over anything else thus the selling happens. Putting things in perspective, Bitcoin’s price fall is seen as a regular pattern by many in the industry. While the digital gold narrative is strengthening, non-crypto enthusiasts are now forming a line to buy Bitcoin. The former National Security Agency agent Edward Snowden, in a recent tweet, “This is the first time in a while I’ve felt like buying bitcoin. That drop was too much panic and too little reason.”
Disclaimer: The above market commentary is based on technical analysis using historical pricing data, and is for reference only. It does not serve as investment or trading advice.
About Coinviva: [Coinviva]3 aims to create the best crypto financial services ecosystem for both institutional and individual investors. We provide reliable fiat funding options, excellent trading liquidity, bank security level custody and one-stop high liquidity provision on-site & off-site. Our founding management team all come from top tiered investment banking (e.g. JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America Merrill Lynch), with fully comprehensive financial institution operation experience.
Homepage: [[link]6
Telegram: [[link]7
'''
How do think of Bitcoin price would be in week of 03/15/2020?
Go1dfish undelete link
unreddit undelete link
Author: Coinviva
1: pre*i*w.re**.it/n6xth*88*rm41**ng*w*dth=1139&*fo*m**=png&**p;aut**web**amp*s=93bee*ae*47b1a154**ae*ae9a*7ce7d**4059*9 2: preview.r*d**it/*d7cc*jaz*m41.png?*idth*1138&a**;format=png&a*p;*u**=w*bp**mp**=0f***4*70*20a66*71f5792d1c0*a*a88d**8*6a 3: **inviva.com* 4: **invi*a.com/ 5: t.me/co**viv* 6: coinviva.com****4 7: t*me*coinviv*]^^*
Unknown links are censored to prevent spreading illicit content.
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Setting of the Sails - Role of Gold and Bitcoin in the FIRE Portfolio

One ship drives east and another drives west With the self-same winds that blow. ‘Tis the set of the sails And not the gales Which tells us the way to go.
Future returns are unknowable with any degree of precision. A portfolio must contend with all that future market prices and developments put before it, whilst seeking to earn the best possible return for the level of risk assumed.
This uncertainty is a core issue for portfolio design. Part of my approach to building my FIRE portfolio has been to target a small allocation to alternatives such as gold and Bitcoin to deliver reduced portfolio volatility, and improved returns. My current target allocation set earlier this year is 7.5 per cent gold and 2.5 per cent Bitcoin. This post explores the reasons for, and basis of, this approach.
Portfolio design - one wind, different directions
In designing the FIRE portfolio, the key guiding principle has been maximising the overall risk-adjusted return, whilst minimising unnecessary volatility.
The important implication of this is that it is not the performance of the individual portfolio parts that I am trying to maximise. Rather, it is the performance of all of the component parts as they interact that is of prime concern.
The objective is for the mix of all of these different holdings to play their part together to enhance portfolio returns or reduce volatility. Decisions on asset allocation - or the mix of assets held - has been repeatedly been shown in academic studies to explain around 90 per cent of the volatility of portfolio returns.
This approach is consistent with the simple guidance to diversify. Underlying it, however, are some observations of modern portfolio theory and the Capital Asset Pricing Model, that can be summarised in the following insights:
At any given time this can mean that one 'wind' will send the individual portfolio components in different directions. In short, the approach is not one that will deliver a portfolio without any losses or low returns in the set of assets held at any given time.
Asset correlation - assessing the crosswinds
The critical ingredients for the approach to be effective are assets that do not move together - that is, uncorrelated assets. A traditional example used in portfolio design are equities and bonds, which have over time often tended to move in opposite directions (e.g. be inversely correlated) in many markets. This is the basis for traditional investment guidance to include greater bond holdings to dampen the volatility of equities.
Gold has tended to have a low correlation to other asset classes. An example of the effects of this on equity portfolios is described in this research paper (pdf) - from the World Gold Council - which found that adding gold holdings to an all equity portfolio both lowered the volatility of returns and increased total returns over the 1968-1996 period (see p.47 and Figure 4.6). The academic evidence for the low correlation of gold to equity returns is, in fact, strong over multiple periods.
Moreover, this diversification benefit appears when most needed. As this recent paper in the International Review of Financial Analysis notes:
…we think that a review of the results from earlier papers on this issue, coupled with our findings, points to the fact that gold is always a hedge or, at worst, always an excellent diversifier of portfolio risk. Gold’s usefulness in managing risk does not disappear in a crisis when the prices of the vast majority of assets tend to be perfectly correlated. (He, 2018)
That is, gold seems to generally hold up as providing non-correlated returns, even when extreme market conditions prevail. Globally, central banks - including Australia's Reserve Bank - also seem to recognise this characteristic. It is in part why central banks collectively own around 17 per cent of gold currently above ground.
Setting the level of gold exposure - competing evidence
There is considerable discussion and debate on the right level of gold holdings to maximise the diversification benefit, and few definitive answers.
The optimum level will vary under most estimation approaches, which inevitably are based on models that build on historical observed relationships and correlations. These correlations themselves vary over time and between markets and countries.
An original study by Jaffe for institutional portfolio managers recommended a 10 per cent allocation against a basket of international equities. Additional studies (pdf) by other authors have recommended 9.5 per cent, and between 0.1 per cent to 12 per cent depending on which country the investor is in. As an example, the country-specific weights typically fell within 3 to 8 per cent for developed countries.
More complex methods than classical mean variance analysis, which take into account the positive skew of gold returns, produce different results again. A 2006 study which examined 1988-2003 data recommended a holding of 4-6 per cent under classical portfolio optimisation approaches, but a lower figure of 2-4 per cent taking return 'skewness' into account.
Diversification and Bitcoin - looking at the record
My purchase of Bitcoin began as an exploration of a new financial technology driven by curiosity. The present question is, however, does it deliver any additional diversification benefits beyond gold holdings?
Conceptually, Bitcoin can be said to share some characteristics with gold that might be expected to reduce any diversification benefit. They both represent highly liquid assets that when held personally are no other parties liability. They are not issued by central banks or other monetary authorities, and they can be transferred. So is there a case for holding just one or the other?
The tentative answer is that despite some conceptual similarities, they do appear to behave differently.
So far, in the decade between July 2009 and February 2019, Bitcoin has shown a low positive correlation to gold (see In Gold We Trust (pdf), p.245). This is consistent with my own observations in my portfolio in the last three and a half year period, with a low correlation of 0.1 over the entire period in the chart below.
[Chart]
On its face it appears Bitcoin may well be a useful complementary alternative holding, offering diversification benefits distinct from other combinations of holdings.
Unlike gold, there is not a clear empirical or academic basis for setting a 'right' level of exposure to Bitcoin. The recent In Gold We Trust report (pdf) discusses and analyses one possible approach - a 70/30 split between gold and Bitcoin, indicating that this delivered similar maximum drawdowns to a gold only portfolio, but with higher returns. Yet this finding is only a function of the extraordinary positive returns from Bitcoin to date, and may not be repeated.
Trade-offs, risks and limits of exposure to alternatives
There are acknowledged trade-offs and risks to investing in alternatives such as gold and Bitcoin.
First, they produce no income or cashflow. Their return is based entirely on capital gains. This is often cited as a definitive proof that they do not represent part of any proper investment portfolio.
Yet, as a part of a portfolio, alternatives can reduce the absolute volatility of the capital value of the portfolio, and - historically in the case of gold, can also increase overall returns. Given final capital value and returns over time are critical inputs into FI, these characteristics are relevant and worth considering.
A potentially stronger objection is that while alternatives may have been useful in the past, they cannot be guaranteed to be so in the future.
That is, the correlations and diversification benefit that has been observed, may disappear. This is entirely possible, and ultimately unknowable. The diversification benefits of gold have a far longer history. Its roles in industry, manufacturing and jewellery would seem likely to continue to guarantee that at any given time there will be some minimum demand for gold, and a relationship between its price and other asset prices that is not perfectly correlated.
For Bitcoin, the same cannot be said. There are many plausible scenarios in which Bitcoin's value declines, it falls in usage, and becomes the equivalent of niche digital collectible with little residual value.
The disappearance or long-term reversal of 'known truths' in finance is not impossible. There are significant periods in capital markets in which bonds outperformed equities, negative yielding debt has moved from something previously unobserved, to a commonplace across many world bond markets. By some measures, global interest rates are at 5 000 year lows. Few developments should be dismissed as inconceivable looking forward.
This suggests that any analysis based on historical trends should be relied on with modest expectations around its accuracy. Yet importantly, this applies not just to speculation around the role and benefits of alternatives. It also applies to traditional investment classes, such as equities or bonds.
For example, the continuation of a positive equity premium for Australia, or any other nation, is not foreordained. Australia's comparatively high equity returns are in fact an anomaly looking across developed countries (see Table 2 and 3, here (pdf)). There are no particularly strong reasons to suggest this will necessarily continue.
Set of the sails - applying the evidence to a FIRE portfolio
The role of gold and Bitcoin are primarily as non-correlated financial instruments for diversification, and as an insurance against extreme capital market events. No actual positive return is assumed for either asset. The evidence discussed above leads me to the following conclusions, for my personal circumstances and risk tolerance.
The alternatives target allocation set earlier this year is 7.5 per cent gold and 2.5 per cent Bitcoin. As of July 2019, a strict reading of these targets suggests I need to moderately lift my exposure to gold, and sell approximately 75 per cent of my Bitcoin holding.
I currently plan to do neither of these things. This is because:
So the sails are set, and the wind will come. These settings allow me to feel that whatever direction they happen to blow, there is the best chance possible based on evidence that they will help in the journey that remains.
The post, source citations and full charts can be viewed here.
Disclaimer: This article does not provide advice and is not a recommendations to invest in either gold, Bitcoin or any alternative assets. It's sole purpose is to provide an explanation of why - in my personal circumstances - I have chosen this exposure.
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Can something be a store of value even though its only utility is being a lousy medium of exchange?

Historically gold has been excellent in both store of value and as a medium exchange.
Gold scores high in Scarcity, Durability, Fungibility, Divisibility, Transferability.
I feel like Scarcity and Durability are more important for store-of-value "use", while Fungibility, Divisibility, Transferability are more important for medium exchange "use" of gold.
Now, one could claim that Bitcoin-BTC is actually better than gold in matters of Scarcity. It will eventually have a lower stock-to-flow ratio than gold, and any BTC "lost" by their owners will contribute to a reduction in the "supply" of BTC. I think it's fair to say, that if used as money, BTC will be more "deflationary" than gold.
BTC is a relatively new technology, and due to liquidity, and credibility it's very volatile, which makes it not a great store of value right now. But I see a lot of people on the internet that believes that as the technology gains more credibility/maturity/track record, the volatility will go away, and BTC might become a better store of value than gold.
Now in the matter of BTC acting as a medium of exchange, it is very effective in transferring large quantities across large distances, but when it comes to local exchanges for small amounts, it's pretty terrible, especially when there's an overload on the network (high transaction fees, and high confirmation times). Even the developers will tell you, that you shouldn't use the main-chain to buy a something like coffee. The developers have been promising a second layer solution for years, which would address such use-cases, but there's no real ETA for a user-friendly release of such solution.
When it comes to brand recognition, hash rate (i.e. network security), and market liquidity, BTC is miles ahead from the competition (other cryptocurrencies).
So my question is:
Is it possible that store-of-value, and medium of exchange become separate things in the future? If some other cryptocurrency (with the same stock-to-flow-ratio to BTC) becomes the "de facto" medium of exchange for both small and large transactions, is it bound to become the "de facto" store-of-value as well?
Or could it be that in the future there are going to be different kinds of money, some specialized in store of value, and some specialized in medium of exchange?
submitted by diogovk to austrian_economics [link] [comments]

Memory and Judgement | Monthly Portfolio Update - March 2019

Everyone complains of his memory, none of his judgement.
– La Rochefoucauld, Maxims
This is my twenty-eighth portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goals.
Portfolio goals
My recently revised objectives are to reach a portfolio of:
$1 598 000 by 31 December 2020. This should produce a real income of about $67 000 (Objective #1) $1 980 000 by 31 July 2023, to produce a passive income equivalent to $83 000 (Objective #2) Both of these are based on an expected average real return of 4.19%, or a nominal return of 7.19%, and are expressed in 2018 dollars.
Portfolio summary
Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $732 134 Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $42 428 Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $76 692 Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $104 802 Vanguard Australia Shares ETF (VAS) – $78 091 Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) - $216 609 Telstra shares (TLS) – $1 769 Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $13 393 NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $6 288 Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $83 212 Secured physical gold – $13 437 Ratesetter* (P2P lending) – $26 147 Bitcoin – $63 947 Raiz* app (Aggressive portfolio) – $14 491 Spaceship Voyager* app (Index portfolio) – $1 751 BrickX* (P2P rental real estate) – $4 621 Total value: $1 439 608 (+$40 302)
Asset allocation
Australian shares – 41.6% (3.4% under) Global shares – 23.6% Emerging markets shares – 2.7% International small companies – 3.5% Total international shares – 29.9% (0.1% under) Total shares – 71.5% (3.5% under) Total property securities – 0.3% (0.3% over) Australian bonds – 6.1% International bonds – 11.2% Total bonds – 17.3% (2.3% over) Cash – 1.2% Gold – 6.5% Bitcoin – 4.3% Gold and alternatives – 10.9% (0.9% over) Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.
Comments
This month saw the total portfolio reach and exceed the original portfolio objective set at the commencement of this journey of $1 476 000.
Since that time, portfolio goals have been updated, but nonetheless it feels as though a significant milestone has passed. Measured over the past twelve months, strong progress has resumed, that being in part a function of the dull echoes of 'Bitcoin bubble' of late 2017 falling out of the time period.
The portfolio increased by a significant $40 000 this month. Part of this was new investments in Betashares A200, and a majority of this gain is attributable to the second instalment from the lowering of my emergency fund discussed here being invested. In the end, averaging two parts of this lump sum into the equity market around three months apart did not make much difference, except perhaps a mild psychological benefit. Together these moves made up the majority of the total portfolio gains. The value of the small Bitcoin holding has also increased slightly, despite its volatility having substantially reduced over the past year.
Another milestone this month has been the finalisation of my first significant March quarter dividend from A200, which will total around $1900. This is lower than expected, being equivalent to around 0.9% for the quarter, and lower than the expected distribution rate of the broadly equivalent Vanguard VAS ETF. It is quite possible that the end of financial year results will be better, however, and on a total returns basis the A200 ETF has still tracked its benchmark closely.
With Australian equities continuing to stay close to their long term price-earnings ratio of 15, Australian equity ETFs will likely remain the primary focus of investment over the next few months. This has been one of the most dominant trends of the journey so far, with total Australian equity holdings growing from around $277 000 in January 2017, and 28 per cent of the portfolio, to around $600 000 this month, and over 40 per cent.
A small action this month has been passing up the option of further investment in Australian real estate through BrickX. Distributions had built up to a level to allow a further small fractional investment. The Australian residential debate continues in full force, however, I cannot justify even small further incremental investments at current low yields, especially given my view of the likelihood of further capital losses.
Overall, expenses continue to track at steady levels. The low red distributions line from July 2018 onwards is a product of low December half distributions, and may be able to be revised upwards once June distributions are known. This would be a welcome revision, as 'credit card' FI seemed to come into view through the last two years, and then disappear in a discouraging way with the December 2018 distributions.
Progress
Progress against the objectives, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below.
Measure Portfolio All Assets Objective #1 – $1 598 000 (or $67 000 pa) 92.6% 128.8% Objective #2 – $1 980 000 (or $83 000 pa) 74.8% 104.0% Credit card purchases - $73 000 pa 85.0% 118.2% Total expenses - $96 000pa 64.6% 89.9%
Summary
This month has brought the portfolio to approximately three-quarters of the way to my Objective #2, and Objective #1 also draws appreciably closer.
Over the past month, as progress has accumulated, I have found myself meditating more fully on the nature and value of time and freedom. What has surprised is the powerful but gradual feeling of decompression that knowledge of the increasing proximity to the goals has brought. Fewer external events, daily stresses, impinge on my daily outlook.
This recent podcast from the Econtalk series, crystallised some of these thoughts, the first 10 minutes contains the best economic and empirical analysis I have encountered on the intersection of time, money, leisure and work. One of its key points - relevant for seekers of FI - is that our growing wealth over time affects how we see and value leisure time itself, and it also has some useful reflections on the concept of 'busyness'.
This month has seen some of this more valuable leisure time used looking at the summary version of the Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook, released last month. This provides updated data from the single best long-term series on equity and bond returns across the world. One interesting aspect of this years updated estimate of long-term historical global equity returns (of 5 per cent) is that it includes for the first time markets that suffered total losses (Russia and China following revolutions in 1917 and 1949) - addressing the issue of survivorship bias. The report argues for significant modesty in expectations of future returns.
A practical implication of this is that my conservative long-term return assumption for global equities (of 4.5 per cent) may be marginally less conservative than when it was made at the start of the year. This podcast from Bloomberg, interviewing Yale Professor of Finance Roger Ibbotson - a key figure in the collection and analysis of historical financial market returns - will provide more related food for thought.
A further intriguing crossover from recent economic literature to FI issues is the release last week of this paper The Power of Working Longer by the National Bureau of Economic Research, which studies the relationship between the decision to work for longer, compared to investing more, prior to retirement. The intriguing summary finding is that delaying retirement by 3-6 months is equivalent to the effect of one percentage point of higher wages over a 30 year working life.
The Australian FI community has also been full of interesting content this month, with Aussie Firebug laying out the basics of FI in an excellent introductory podcast, and Strong Money Australia doing a short summary of his current progress in transitioning from property investment dominated portfolio to equities. Australian investor's benefits from higher dividend rates also got a mention in Big ERN's comprehensive safe withdrawal rates series. It was also great to see the appearance and progress of other new Australian FI bloggers, such a AFamilyOnFire.
With the month closed, the focus will now be shifting to awaiting and re-investing the quarterly dividends due, and contemplating that a further three months comparable to the last three - an unlikely but possible scenario - could see Objective #1 reached much earlier than my judgement had anticipated.
The post and graphs can be viewed here
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Elaborating on Datadash's 50k BTC Prediction: Why We Endorse the Call

As originally published via CoinLive
I am the Co-Founder at CoinLive. Prior to founding Coinlive.io, my area of expertise was inter-market analysis. I came across Datadash 50k BTC prediction this week, and I must take my hats off to what I believe is an excellent interpretation of the inter-connectivity of various markets.
At your own convenience, you can find a sample of Intermarket analysis I've written in the past before immersing myself into cryptos full-time.
Gold inter-market: 'Out of sync' with VIX, takes lead from USD/JPY
USD/JPY inter-market: Watch divergence US-Japan yield spread
EUUSD intermarket: US yields collapse amid supply environment
Inter-market analysis: Risk back in vogue, but for how long?
USD/JPY intermarket: Bulls need higher adj in 10-y US-JP spread
The purpose of this article is to dive deeper into the factors Datadash presents in his video and how they can help us draw certain conclusions about the potential flows of capital into crypto markets and the need that will exist for a BTC ETF.
Before I do so, as a brief explainer, let's touch on what exactly Intermarket analysis refers to:
Intermarket analysis is the global interconnectivity between equities, bonds, currencies, commodities, and any other asset class; Global markets are an ever-evolving discounting and constant valuation mechanism and by studying their interconnectivity, we are much better positioned to explain and elaborate on why certain moves occur, future directions and gain insights on potential misalignments that the market may not have picked up on yet or might be ignoring/manipulating.
While such interconnectivity has proven to be quite limiting when it comes to the value one can extract from analyzing traditional financial assets and the crypto market, Datadash has eloquently been able to build a hypothesis, which as an Intermarket analyst, I consider very valid, and that matches up my own views. Nicolas Merten constructs a scenario which leads him to believe that a Bitcoin ETF is coming. Let's explore this hypothesis.
I will attempt to summarize and provide further clarity on why the current events in traditional asset classes, as described by Datadash, will inevitably result in a Bitcoin ETF. Make no mistake, Datadash's call for Bitcoin at 50k by the end of 2018 will be well justified once a BTC ETF is approved. While the timing is the most challenging part t get right, the end result won't vary.
If one wishes to learn more about my personal views on why a BTC ETF is such a big deal, I encourage you to read my article from late March this year.
Don't Be Misled by Low Liquidity/Volume - Fundamentals Never Stronger
The first point Nicholas Merten makes is that despite depressed volume levels, the fundamentals are very sound. That, I must say, is a point I couldn't agree more. In fact, I recently wrote an article titled The Paradox: Bitcoin Keeps Selling as Intrinsic Value Set to Explode where I state "the latest developments in Bitcoin's technology makes it paradoxically an ever increasingly interesting investment proposition the cheaper it gets."
However, no article better defines where we stand in terms of fundamentals than the one I wrote back on May 15th titled Find Out Why Institutions Will Flood the Bitcoin Market, where I look at the ever-growing list of evidence that shows why a new type of investors, the institutional ones, looks set to enter the market in mass.
Nicholas believes that based on the supply of Bitcoin, the market capitalization can reach about $800b. He makes a case that with the fundamentals in bitcoin much stronger, it wouldn't be that hard to envision the market cap more than double from its most recent all-time high of more than $300b.
Interest Rates Set to Rise Further
First of all, one of the most immediate implications of higher rates is the increased difficulty to bear the costs by borrowers, which leads Nicholas to believe that banks the likes of Deutsche Bank will face a tough environment going forward. The CEO of the giant German lender has actually warned that second-quarter results would reflect a “revenue environment [that] remains challenging."
Nicholas refers to the historical chart of Eurodollar LIBOR rates as illustrated below to strengthen the case that interest rates are set to follow an upward trajectory in the years to come as Central Banks continue to normalize monetary policies after a decade since the global financial crisis. I'd say, that is a correct assumption, although one must take into account the Italian crisis to be aware that a delay in higher European rates is a real possibility now.
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/947/content_2018-05-30_1100.png)
Let's look at the following combinations: Fed Fund Rate Contract (green), German 2-year bond yields (black) and Italy's 10-year bond yield (blue) to help us clarify what's the outlook for interest rates both in Europe and the United States in the foreseeable future. The chart suggests that while the Federal Reserve remains on track to keep increasing interest rates at a gradual pace, there has been a sudden change in the outlook for European rates in the short-end of the curve.
While the European Central Bank is no longer endorsing proactive policies as part of its long-standing QE narrative, President Mario Draghi is still not ready to communicate an exit strategy to its unconventional stimulus program due to protectionism threats in the euro-area, with Italy the latest nightmare episode.
Until such major step is taken in the form of a formal QE conclusion, interest rates in the European Union will remain depressed; the latest drastic spike in Italy's benchmark bond yield to default levels is pre-emptive of lower rates for longer, an environment that on one hand may benefit the likes of Deutsche Bank on lower borrowing costs, but on the other hand, sets in motion a bigger headache as risk aversion is set to dominate financial markets, which leads to worse financial consequences such as loss of confidence and hence in equity valuations.
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/948/content_2018-05-30_1113.png)
Deutsche Bank - End of the Road?
Nicholas argues that as part of the re-restructuring process in Deutsche Bank, they will be facing a much more challenging environment as lending becomes more difficult on higher interest rates. At CoinLive, we still believe this to be a logical scenario to expect, even if a delay happens as the ECB tries to deal with the Italian political crisis which once again raises the question of whether or not Italy should be part of the EU. Reference to an article by Zerohedge is given, where it states:
"One day after the WSJ reported that the biggest German bank is set to "decimate" its workforce, firing 10,000 workers or one in ten, this morning Deutsche Bank confirmed plans to cut thousands of jobs as part of new CEO Christian Sewing's restructuring and cost-cutting effort. The German bank said its headcount would fall “well below” 90,000, from just over 97,000. But the biggest gut punch to employee morale is that the bank would reduce headcount in its equities sales and trading business by about 25%."
There is an undeniably ongoing phenomenon of a migration in job positions from traditional financial markets into blockchain, which as we have reported in the past, it appears to be a logical and rational step to be taken, especially in light of the new revenue streams the blockchain sector has to offer. Proof of that is the fact that Binance, a crypto exchange with around 200 employees and less than 1 year of operations has overcome Deutsche Bank, in total profits. What this communicates is that the opportunities to grow an institution’s revenue stream are formidable once they decide to integrate cryptocurrencies into their business models.
One can find an illustration of Deutsche Bank's free-fall in prices below:
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/946/content_2018-05-30_1052.png)
Nicholas takes notes of a chart in which one can clearly notice a worrying trend for Italian debt. "Just about every other major investor type has become a net seller (to the ECB) or a non-buyer of BTPs over the last couple of years. Said differently, for well over a year, the only marginal buyer of Italian bonds has been the ECB!", the team of Economists at Citi explained. One can find the article via ZeroHedge here.
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/953/content_2018-05-30_1451.png)
Equities & Housing to Suffer the Consequences
Nicholas notes that trillions of dollars need to exit these artificially-inflated equity markets. He even mentions a legendary investor such as George Soros, who has recently warned that the world could be on the brink of another devastating financial crisis, on lingering debt concerns in Europe and a strengthening US dollar, as a destabilizing factor for both the US's emerging- and developed-market rivals.
Ray Dalio, another legend in the investing world and Founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, "has ramped up its short positions in European equities in recent weeks, bringing their total value to an estimated $22 billion", MarketWatch reports.
Nicholas extracts a chart by John Del Vecchio at lmtr.com where it illustrates the ratio between stocks and commodities at the lowest in over 50 years.
As the author states:
"I like to look for extremes in the markets. Extremes often pinpoint areas where returns can be higher and risk lower than in other time periods. Take the relationship between commodities and stocks. The chart below shows that commodities haven not been cheaper than stocks in a generation. We often hear this time it is different” to justify what’s going on in the world. But, one thing that never changes is human nature. People push markets to extremes. Then they revert. "
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/954/content_2018-05-30_1459.png)
Bitcoin ETF the Holy Grail for a Cyclical Multi-Year Bull Run
It is precisely from this last chart above that leads Nicholas to believe we are on the verge of a resurgence in commodity prices. Not only that but amid the need of all this capital to exit stocks and to a certain extent risky bonds (Italian), a new commodity-based digital currency ETF based on Bitcoin will emerge in 2018.
The author of Datadash highlights the consideration to launching a Bitcoin ETF by the SEC. At CoinLive, our reporting of the subject can be found below:
"Back in April, it was reported that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has put back on the table two Bitcoin ETF proposals, according to public documents. The agency is under formal proceedings to approve a rule change that would allow NYSE Arca to list two exchange-traded funds (ETFs) proposed by fund provider ProShares. The introduction of an ETF would make Bitcoin available to a much wider share of market participants, with the ability to directly buy the asset at the click of a button, essentially simplifying the current complexity that involves having to deal with all the cumbersome steps currently in place."
Nicholas refers to the support the Bitcoin ETF has been receiving by the Cboe president Chris Concannon, which is a major positive development. CoinLive reported on the story back in late March, noting that "a Bitcoin ETF will without a doubt open the floodgates to an enormous tsunami of fresh capital entering the space, which based on the latest hints by Concannon, the willingness to keep pushing for it remains unabated as the evolution of digital assets keeps its course."
It has been for quite some time CoinLive's conviction, now supported by no other than Nicholas Merten from Datadash, that over the next 6 months, markets will start factoring in the event of the year, that is, the approval of a Bitcoin ETF that will serve as a alternative vehicle to accommodate the massive flows of capital leaving some of the traditional asset classes. As Nicholas suggests, the SEC will have little choice but to provide alternative investments.
Bitcoin as a Hedge to Lower Portfolios' Volatility
Last but not least, crypto assets such as Bitcoin and the likes have an almost non-existent correlation to other traditional assets such as stocks, bonds, and commodities, which makes for a very attractive and broadly-applicable diversification strategy for the professional money as it reduces one’s portfolio volatility. The moment a Bitcoin ETF is confirmed, expect the non-correlation element of Bitcoin as a major driving force to attract further capital.
Anyone Can Be Wrong Datadash, But You Won't be Wrong Alone
Having analyzed the hypothesis by Nicholas Merten, at CoinLive we believe that the conclusion reached, that is, the creation of a Bitcoin ETF that will provide shelter to a tsunami of capital motivated by the diversification and store of value appeal of Bitcoin, is the next logical step. As per the timing of it, we also anticipate, as Nicholas notes, that it will most likely be subject to the price action in traditional assets. Should equities and credit markets hold steady, it may result in a potential delay, whereas disruption in the capital market may see the need for a BTC ETF accelerate. Either scenario, we will conclude with a quote we wrote back in March.
"It appears as though an ETF on Bitcoin is moving from a state of "If" to "When."
Datadash is certainly not alone on his 50k call. BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes appears to think along the same line.
On behalf of the CoinLive Team, we want to thank Nicholas Merten at Datadash for such enlightening insights.
submitted by Ivo333 to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Halving: a Harbinger of a Bull Market or Coincidence?

Bitcoin Halving: a Harbinger of a Bull Market or Coincidence?
In this article, we will talk in detail about the Bitcoin halving, find out what it is, analyze how this event affected the market previously, study the theories of top traders and try to understand what to expect in the future. So, first things first.
https://preview.redd.it/58uagqpscqq31.jpg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ae0b5759cf7916fb3492685a78ca1d19d0a66a17

Inflation?

The mysterious Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto was a real genius, as he came up with a rather smart solution to maybe the most important problem of any currency - inflation. The current Bitcoin rate inflation is 4% per year, while the US dollar 1,91%, the Indian rupee 5,24%, the Russian ruble 4,33%, etc. However, Bitcoin inflation will continue to decrease until it reaches 0% in 2140.
To begin with, the Bitcoins issue is limited, in total, 21 million coins will be issued. As you know, Bitcoins are not issued by any single centralized authority - they are mined. And by analogy with precious metals, the mining complexity will constantly increase, while the reward for the work done will decrease. The whole thing is the correct implementation of source code, as well as the so-called halving, which means that the miners get half as many coins every four years. Thus, by rough estimates, the last Bitcoin will be mined in May 2140.

What is halving and how does it work?

To explain what halving is, let's first understand how Bitcoin works. So, this digital coin is based on blockchain technology, which is a decentralized data accounting book, exact copies of which are located on miner computers around the world.
As you know, each book consists of pages, in our case these are blocks. Each block has its own unique serial number. Miners solve complex mathematical equations to form a new block and receive a reward in the form of coins for the work done. The size of this reward is halved every 210 thousand blocks. Considering that about 144 blocks are mined per day, this event occurs approximately once every four years. This is what is called halving. The short Bitcoin history includes two halvings:
  1. 11/28/2012 the reward for the found block was reduced from 50 to 25 BTC.
  2. 07/09/2016 the award halved again from 25 to 12.5 coins.
The next halving should happen on May 23, 2020, then the reward will again decrease by half and amount to 6.25 BTC.

A brief analysis of the first halving

On the day when the first decrease in the reward for the found block happened, the BTC rate showed a slight movement - the price increased by only 1.7%. But if you look at the big picture, you can see that the asset began to grow several months before this event, and just continued to move up after halving. Thus, the BTC rate increased from 13 to 260 US dollars in just four months.
https://preview.redd.it/89x4xdmvcqq31.png?width=934&format=png&auto=webp&s=af38bb2957a876c9f447b411db7a7e09d5ea21bc
This was followed by a rollback in price up to $80, but later a real bull race started and lasted until December 2013. At that time, the asset grew to unimaginable values, its rate reached the level of 1150 US dollars. Well, and of course, after such an increase, a tight correction of the price and a protracted bear market followed.
Pay attention to the complexity of the Bitcoin network during this event. The chart below shows, that the hash rate began to increase rapidly a few months before the halving, and the growth did not stop after it.
https://preview.redd.it/ljb35j7xcqq31.png?width=1335&format=png&auto=webp&s=f61f7a35294d500163e495370c8ece9fd27d68f5

A brief analysis of the second halving

The second halving occurred in less than four years - on July 9, 2016. This time, the reward for miners fell to 12.5 BTC. It is important to note that the time between the first and second halvings was 1316 days or 3.6 years. Moreover, if to analyze the data, you can see that the market started an upward movement about 9 months before the event. During this period, the BTC rate rose by 112%, and after the Bitcoin halving, it continued to grow till December 2017 and stopped at around $20,000 per coin.
We can also see how the hash rate increased against the background of the second halving. The chart below shows that the complexity of the Bitcoin network throughout the bear market in 2014-2015 was about the same value, but this figure began to grow rapidly about six months before the halving.
https://preview.redd.it/wylqu1wycqq31.png?width=1366&format=png&auto=webp&s=a84acd976f6ae945c390615797234e20473fecaf
Therefore, the miners' interest in Bitcoin has grown significantly a few months before the event. And just like the previous time, the hash rate of the network continued to grow after halving.

In the run-up to of the third halving

As we all remember, a rather encouraging 2018 followed the euphoria of 2017, and the rates of all coins fell down to 90% of their peak values. According to technical indicators and the general mood in the market, we can say that the bear flag lasted until April 2, 2019. On this day, the Bitcoin exchange rate rose from $4,100 to almost $5,000, then an upward movement began. Note that this happened 13 months before the upcoming halving.
Further, the BTC rate continued to grow rapidly and reached the level of $14,000 at the end of June, followed by a rollback and the price held at around $10,000 for a long time. But on September 24, 2019, there was a fairly powerful price drop, the rate fell by $1,500 in less than a day, and at the time of this writing, the market price of one BTC coin is $8,200.
Note that the resumption of BTC growth this year was again accompanied by a significant increase in the hash rate. The complexity of the network from April to September has more than doubled, and it continues to increase.
https://preview.redd.it/dnivyfm0dqq31.png?width=1366&format=png&auto=webp&s=29c3ecbce63bfed760c0c98af0e2db5948a456d3

How will halving 2020 affect the price?

Many market participants are wondering how will the third halving affect the market situation? Unfortunately, we can’t know the future, we can only analyze the current situation, compare it with historical data and draw certain conclusions.
In this article, we take the theories of two famous traders - Bob Lucas and Sunny Decree. They both analyzed in detail previous halving and made their forecasts regarding the market reaction to the next halving.

Sunny Decree Theory

He believes that the expectation of a halving will lead to Bitcoin price rise, as it was in previous times. He uses the BLX index to confirm this theory - this is the most complete history of the BTC price on the Internet, this is data actually from its very foundation.
The first cycle until November 2012 (before the first halving) is not so important for us since at that time Bitcoin was still a fairly new concept. Almost no one knew about its existence, and there were not many exchanges where it could be traded. However, we can use the second cycle as a projection for the third, in which we are now. The key role in the formation of new cycles is not in the reduction of inflation itself (that is, the Bitcoin halving), but trading activity in anticipation of it.
https://preview.redd.it/4kczz6a2dqq31.png?width=1306&format=png&auto=webp&s=f0734155c3af4755935bcb052572585a124128f6
Each of these cycles can be divided into several phases:
  • The first phase, which is not highlighted in color, is the bull market when the price forms a parabolic upward movement and market participants are in euphoria
  • The second phase is highlighted in red - it is a bear market that afflicts traders and most investors.
  • The third phase is highlighted in orange - it is an accumulation that begins after reaching the bottom.
  • The fourth phase is marked in yellow - this is a parabolic movement after accumulation, which occurred throughout all three cycles.
  • The fifth phase is highlighted in gray - this is the continuation of accumulation until halving and a new bull rally.
It to look attentively at the current cycle (that is, the third) we can see:
  • the first phase is a bullish trend up to $20,000.
  • the second phase is a drop to $3200.
  • the third phase is flat, which did not differ in increased volatility, at that moment the whales accumulated coins.
  • the fourth phase - a sharp increase, up to $14,000.
  • the fifth phase - a new correction to $8,200 and the continued accumulation of assets.
This theory tells us about the continuation of accumulation until the next halving in May 2020, which should be followed by a new bullish trend.
Now let's move on to the price forecast. The difference between the high of the first and second cycle is about 3600%, between the second and third - 1600-1700%. That is, each time the profit as a percentage goes down, so the third cycle was approximately half weaker than the second. As a result, according to Sunny Decree's theory, projecting the estimated percentage of growth proportionally, we can expect that the next BTC high will be at around $185,000. Using the structure of the third cycle, we can suggest that the peak of the bull market will happen in the summer of 2021.

Bob Lucas theory

Next, let's look at the theory of professional trader Bob Lucas. He analyzes the so-called cycles. In his opinion, the last four-year cycle (which contained 52 weeks in the drop and 153 weeks in growth) came to its end, it took 205 weeks in total.
Bob Lucas believes that the price we saw on December 10, 2018, was the end of this cycle. It is important to understand that the video in which he tells this theory in detail appeared on his channel on April 2, 2019 - on the very day when the market began to grow, so six months later we can notice that he was right in many ways, but not in everything.
So, Bob Lucas says in his video that at the beginning of a new cycle we will see the incredible power that will rapidly push the price to new levels. Lucas noted that at the time of recording the video, a lot of people are beginning to actively buy BTC in hope on rapid growth.
He believed that in April the market was not yet at the stage of the final bull race. He said that there will be growing up to plus or minus $6,000 in the near future, followed by a tough correction that will unsettle many weak investors. In his opinion, during this correction, the price may even update the December bottom, and only after that, a new cycle will begin, which will last about 150 weeks in growth. As for the final price, he does not have a specific figure, but he believes that the rate of the first cryptocurrency will be more than 100 thousand US dollars.
He stated that a hard correction should happen around August 2019, but in fact, it did not happen. Even though he made a mistake with the time frame and the estimated rate of BTC, he predicted the vector of the development of the situation quite correctly. Recent events are an excellent confirmation of this when on September 24, 2019, the BTC rate fell by $1,500 in less than a day. It was the correction Bob Lucas spoke about, but it happened a month later than he expected. Yes, it`s not likely that the rate falls to $3,000, but in current conditions, it is quite realistic to imagine a BTC rate of $6,000. Indeed, many analysts and experts agree that the “bloody Tuesday”, September 24th was not the final fall, it caused the next phase of accumulation of assets, which will take some time.

Neironix research department opinion

Let's drop someone else’s opinion and do what professional investors usually do - just take the facts we have and analyze them with a cold head.
  1. If to take a look at the BTC chart for its entire history, you can see certain patterns that have been repeated in a cyclic form several times.
  2. These cycles are conditionally divided by halvings, according to the principle of one halving - one parabolic growth.
  3. Even after shocking price kickbacks, the BTC rate never again fell to the values ​​that were before the start of the parabolic growth.
  4. Each subsequent halving increases the cost of mining BTC, which plays an important role in increasing the value of the coin.
  5. Bitcoin Halving 2020 is a very hype event, so in any case, this will affect the price.
Can we predict the future based on this? Of course, we cannot know for sure what surprises the cryptocurrency market is preparing for us. But no doubt that the cryptocurrency market, moreover Bitcoin, has great prospects. Bitcoin should be considered only as a long-term asset, which has always shown huge returns for a long period of time.
But it is important to understand that this article is not a guide to action since the digital coin market is quite unpredictable and it is a rather difficult task to foretell any outcome in advance. Do not invest in cryptocurrencies more than you can afford to lose. If you spend more money than you can effort, then you will not be able to think rationally and survive often storms in this young market. Treat your investments with a cold mind, and then you will succeed.

Conclusion

Bitcoin has already survived two halvings during its short history, and in less than nine months, we will see another decrease in the reward for miners. If you carefully study the charts, you can see that the BTC rate always grows before the halving. And after it, the market goes into a phase of parabolic growth, it lasts about a year, and then comes the correction and a protracted bear market.
A similar scenario has already been repeated twice and many traders believe that we will see a similar picture in the future, since the next halving should take place in May 2020. We observed a significant increase in the hash rate, the number of wallets, transactions and an increase in the rate of the main cryptocurrency 13 months before this event.
Earlier that we carried a detailed analysis of the current state of the Litecoin cryptocurrency, and also analyzed its behavior against the background of the recent halving that took place on August 5, 2019. If you are interested in this topic, here is a link to our study.
submitted by neironixio to u/neironixio [link] [comments]

WARNING!!! BITCOIN EXTREME VOLATILITY IMMINENT!!! BTC WILL ... Historical Volatility Calculation with Excel - YouTube BITCOIN EXTREME VOLATILITY IMMINENT!! What’s REALLY Keeping $BTC Price DOWN?! Calculate volatility & yearly volatility in Excel (Bitcoin volatility) Bitcoin Expecting A High Volatility Move!!! (BTC Charts)

Historical Volatility of Hashprice Volatility of Hashprice (2018-2020) To give context to how volatile hashprice is, we put it up against the price of Bitcoin, WTI Oil and the S&P 500. Bitcoincharts is the world's leading provider for financial and technical data related to the Bitcoin network. It provides news, markets, price charts and more. Bitcoin price today is $13,157.97 USD with a 24-hour trading volume of $23,730,036,740 USD. Bitcoin is up 1.33% in the last 24 hours. The current CoinMarketCap ranking is #1, with a market cap of $243,779,373,909 USD. It has a circulating supply of 18,527,131 BTC coins and a max. supply of 21,000,000 BTC coins. You can find the top exchanges to trade Bitcoin listed on our Volatility is derived from the variance of price movements on an annualized basis. This calculation can be complex and time-consuming, but using Excel calculating an asset's historical volatility ... Berechnung der historischen Volatilität in Excel - 2020 - Talkin go money Historische Volatilität einer Aktie in Excel berechnen I Excelpedia (Oktober 2020). Inhaltsverzeichnis: Wir simulieren aus der Excel-Funktion = Der Wert der finanziellen Vermögenswerte variiert täglich. Investoren benötigen einen Indikator, um diese oft schwer vorhersehbaren Bewegungen zu quantifizieren. Angebot und ...

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WARNING!!! BITCOIN EXTREME VOLATILITY IMMINENT!!! BTC WILL ...

Please like and subscribe to the channel. This video shows how to calculate the volatility and the yearly volatility. In my video I calculated the volatilties of the Bitcoin. Comment below any ... Bitcoin is indeed a master of volatility, constantly changing its direction, with little rhyme or reason. In this video, we discuss how you can leverage parabolic moves across assets to increase ... Bitcoin Expecting A High Volatility Move!!! (BTC Charts) ----- Bitcoin ready to make some major moves going into the end of the month. Let's see what we can expect moving forward from here. Still ... #Bitcoin ready for major volatility as futures and options expire. #BTC looks for its first monthly candle close above $13k since the all time high! Crypto n... The historic volatility is showing us that we may see a huge move in the price of Bitcoin in the near future. I want to have a look at which levels I'm watch...

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