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How to play dice: Strategy with BTC
Dice games are one of the simplest and purest casino games online today. There are thousands of different dice games available to play online, but recently dice games with bitcoin are getting very popular. Bitcoin dice is called the only “provably fair” game. Unlike other dice sites, platforms that offer Bitcoin or crypto dice don’t force players to trust the casino itself. Instead, Bitcoin dice runs on a transparent blockchain system that allows players to independently verify that the games they play are far, without stacked odds. What is Bitcoin Dice? Dice gambling games all follow the same fundamental process, but there are key two differences between Bitcoin dice and traditional dice game that make it highly popular with gamers. Firstly, Bitcoin dice is provably fair. Bitcoin dice game can be checked by players themselves to ensure that it’s fair and free from any odds tampering — the odds you see are what the odds you play. Secondly, Bitcoin dice allows players to gamble Bitcoin. This provides players with a massive advantage — casino players are normally required to rely on casino platforms to release their withdrawals and pay out their winnings. Bitcoin dice, however, allows players to withdraw their winnings in Bitcoin at any time. Bitcoin withdrawal transactions typically take less than one hour to complete, providing players with the ability to access their winnings much faster than any other platform. How to play Bitcoin Dice? Playing Bitcoin dice is extremely simple, and is comparable to many other simple BTC gambling games. In a dice Bitcoin game, players choose a number between 1 and 100 and place a wager on whether a dice roll between the same numbers will roll above or below that number — it’s that simple. Betting that a dice roll will result in a number lower than 75, for example, is the same as betting that the roll will land over 25. Most Bitcoin dice game odds are transparent, with a 1% house edge. The basic steps of playing Bitcoin dice are:
Choose a number that you predict the dice roll will land over or under and place a wager
Roll the dice!
Bitcoin Dice Tips & Examples: There are a number of tips and tricks you can use to increase the chances of winning big on Bitcoin dice:
Consider playing with a dice strategy, such as the Martingale strategy
When you play dice game, use different strategies with Autobet. For example: Roll under 48, set initial bet — 10 satoshi and increase bet amount by 300%. When you play dice, change this percentage to 45% and higher to test different ways. Some of the ways might work.
Slowly increase your bet amount when you’re on a winning streak — don’t get too hasty!
Bank half of your winnings to ensure a profit when you’re on a roll.
Consider playing on a platform that provides benefits, such as a Bitcoin faucet. Bitcoin faucet is free bitcoin, which you can get after a certain amount of time, like one hour. Using free bitcoin is a good motivation and chance to win more free bitcoin.
What is common between bitcoin dice & wagering contest? Dice platforms usually offer dice wagering contest. It’s a competition between crypto players in all over the world. Players have to wager in the dice gmae during a certain amount of time. Players who wager the most during that time, will get nice prizes. Especially, if you play dice game with bitcoin or crypto, it gives huge inspiration. Everyone is welcome to try bitcoin dice game with faucet in TrustDice platform — one of the popular dice game in crypto community. It’s transparent and provably fair, offers free faucet. Just try out TrustDice, if you’re interested in the topic. _______________________________________________________________ Article was supported by TrustDice game! To try Bitcoin dice game: LINK
My friend is caught up in a martingale "Investing" company, help needed.
A friend of mine and business associate, along with a good deal of his family has put a good deal of money in a 'investment company' that trades gold, silver & forex using a 'guaranteed system' that 'offers reliable returns. All the buzz words are words that worry me, so after much asking, I finally took a look at the brochures the company puts out. In the end, and it's even stated in the brochure I got, they are just using leverage with a martingale strategy. I have tried to explain to him that martingales work up until you're bankrupt, then you're lost with everything. His response (And those of all the family members he has), has been that it's impossible for any strategy to fail in this setup simply because gold and forex has value and isn't simple gambling. My response to them has been that since they're using margins, they more-or-less are trading in assets that can have $0, or even negative value should the market move very rapidly in one direction and wipe out the margin reserve. I told him that I would ask a group of people that know more than I do, so here I am. I do not actively trade stocks (Only long term buy & hold), so this is all something I can't claim much knowledge on, but feel my thoughts are correct about this 'system'.
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One hour ago I self-excluded from all o my favorite online casinos. Please help me stop torturing myself.
Oh boy. It all started when I got my first bank account at 16 and realized I could place bets on basketball online (at the time, I lied that I was 18 and made my deposits with paper checks lol). I didn't have a problem yet, I'd deposit $50 and bet $5 per game until it was gone, and since it took 2 weeks or so to re-deposit, it was easy to avoid going on tilt. Gambling never really became a serious problem for me until I was about 25 and discovered online blackjack. One night I lost $300 at Bovada which seemed like the end of the world so I self-excluded. My memory of my time-line is extremely hazy but something like months, perhaps a year later I called up and had them re-activate my account. I didn't really have a problem. In 2011, I started betting sports again, this time on 5 dimes. I figured I never really had a problem with sports betting as long as I avoided the casino. Well, eventually temptation won. I deposited $200 at 5 dimes and started playing blackjack. Over the course of 1-2 weeks, I ran that $200 up to about $7,000. More money than I'd ever held at one time. I mean, I was on an unbelievable hot streak. I was playing a reverse Martingale system and was convinced I had found a way to exploit the casino. I couldn't lose. I'd walk away at a nice round $10k which I had no doubt I'd hit. Until I started losing. Lost it all in roughly 48 hours. Not once did I even entertain the thought of cutting my losses and walking away once I got down to 4, 3, or 2 thousand. I blinked, it was gone. I was miserable for months thinking about what I could've done with that money. Fortunately I was too depressed and lifeless to even summon the energy to make a deposit lol, so I quit again for a while. It's March 2016 and I've now discovered the joys of online slots. The crack cocaine of gambling. I don't know how long I've been playing online slots at this point. Maybe a year, maybe 3. I kept my deposits small and stuck to $1 spins. I hadn't suffered any catastrophic losses but it kept me mired in the paycheck-to-paycheck struggle. I was flying east for vacation in about 2 weeks and had no idea how I'd afford to enjoy it. So on one Sunday night, I throw in $25 on bovada for shits and giggles. Money I definitely couldn't afford to deposit since I couldn't afford to spare $25 - and probably more after I start chasing. I play for about 30 minutes, get up to about $50 and play it back down to $20. Then, it happens. I spin, not a winner - until I glance to the upper left and see my account balance is $5,900. WTF!? Takes me a moment to process. I hit the progressive jackpot!!!! I cried. This was it. I won what was for me a life changing jackpot. I had rollover from a bonus to complete so I started $100 spins to clear out about $600 worth of remaining rollover so at worst, I'd walk with $5300. I didn't lose. I won an additional $1,300, walked with $7200! I immediately placed a withdrawal before i could bet again. I kept my deposits small after this and won another $1700 a few weeks later on a different casino. I kept some of my winnings in bitcoin (2 bitcoin worth) when the price was about $1200. Right before the price jump. At one point I had $25,000 worth of bitcoin and $5,000 in the bank. I started gambling, drinking excessively and doing coke. Living way beyond my $45k per year income means. Lost everything including the bitcoin by midway through 2018. Stopped drinking, other drugs (except weed), gambling. I up about $1000 since January 3 days ago. I hadn't gambled in 3 days. Thought I was done. Monday night, I figured a $50 deposit wouldn't hurt. Ran it up to $480 in like 15 minutes. Lost it just as quickly. I'm now down $1,200 since Monday night. It happened so quick. I still have my bills paid and some money to get by with until payday but I was going to pay down a chunk of my credit card and now my safety net is pretty much gone. I'm torturing myself. One measly $50 deposit could easily recover a huge chunk of my losses. It's happened plenty of times before. Or I could run myself out of money and not be able to eat for a week. So I banned myself from all online casinos an hour ago. I don't know why I keep torturing myself. I could have smoked bowls and watched netflix or read books when I was bored and feel fulfilled rather than empty. I need to realize I'll never get that money back and aside from the money, every time I lose I waste hours, days of my time to this shit. Yesterday I played slots from the time I woke up and didn't stop for 13 hours...only stopping because my debit card was flagged for suspicious activity and I was too embarrassed to call the bank and potentially have to lie about my degeneracy. Oof. It felt good to get that off my chest. I'm looking forward to checking my bank account and not having the first 12 transactions be to some merchant in Istanbul or Bahrain lol. Would love to hear others share their stories especially if involves successfully breaking free of this horrible compulsion.
Another great game is called Dice, a crypto dice game. Here your task is to predict whether a number the dice will roll is higher or lower than a certain digit from the range from 0.000 to 99.999. This is not a classic dice game, but it still gives you a possibility to use different systems as Martingale or D’Alembert to predict the final outcome. https://www.ooobtc.com #ooobtc #obx #IEO #Coin_of_month #crypto #bitcoin #ethereum #Airdrop #launchpad #blockchain #btc #toqqn #dogecoin #Btk #usdt #cryptocurrency #Btcone #OVC
Another great game is called Dice, a crypto dice game. Here your task is to predict whether a number the dice will roll is higher or lower than a certain digit from the range from 0.000 to 99.999. This is not a classic dice game, but it still gives you a possibility to use different systems as Martingale or D’Alembert to predict the final outcome. www.ooobtc.com #ooobtc #obx #IEO #Coin_of_month #crypto #bitcoin #ethereum #Airdrop #launchpad #blockchain #btc #toqqn #dogecoin #Btk #usdt #cryptocurrency #Btcone #OVC
Starting with almost nothing, I made almost $500,000 gambling with Bitcoin. I then lost it all in about 60 seconds. I am now $50k in debt and will most likely lose my job, my visa status, my fiancee. AMA.
EDIT: 01/12/14 EDIT: Thank you all for taking the time to read this. The overwhelming majority of your responses have been very supportive, and I feel that I got a lot of perspective. I am in tears right now, because in my self-loathing state I really did not expect so much positive feedback. I need to come clean to my fiancee, because that is the one variable that I can control. This is a story of luck, hope, greed, despair, stupidity. Over the past 10 days I have gone one a rollercoaster ride of the full spectrum of human emotion. I am trying to live down what happened, and maybe this AMA will help me. I feel this can work both ways too, and I am grateful for any advice I receive. Hopefully also it will help you! I say that I hope my story will help you and I really mean that any of you, because let me start off by saying that I am not a gambler, and I have never even exhibited gambling tendencies before. I am a risktaker and I enjoy new experiences, but I have always considered myself responsible and I have a sound understanding of the maths behind gambling. I know that the house always wins. But after what happened to me, how quickly I got sucked in, how much money I made, and how it all ended just days later, I honestly do not feel that I was fully in control of my actions. If it happened to me, it can happen to you too, and I sincerely hope that after reading this, it never will. Let me give some more specific details, so that you have a more complete picture. I will fill in the rest in response to your questions. EDIT: I ran out of space for proof, please see comments.
My name is Bob. I am a grad student in math, living in California1 .
I got into Bitcoin as an investment. The last 15 days or so have been extremely tempestuous for Bitcoin, and the events of this AMA coincided with the biggest crash in Bitcoin's history.
Around late march I started learning how to play blackjack, just as a fun hobby. I am a multi-faceted person with many interests, and this was just another mini-hobby that I took up. I was very interested in basic strategy, and was hoping to use it at a casino on our 2-year anniversary with my fiancee. She loves to "gamble" in a very innocent sense of the word: she and her girlfriends will go to a casino, have some drinks and have fun losing a bunch of $25 promotional vouchers. I wanted to come with her and impress her by scraping a small profit with basic strategy2 .
I then discovered bitZino (www.bitzino.com), and I realized that the best way to learn basic strategy is to have a small financial stake to motivate me. I played for small stakes, made some money, then took a couple of bad beats. I lost most of my investment profits and was down to about $4,000. Then I switched to roulette3 . I quickly recouped my losses, and began to lose myself. This was the beginning of the end.
On April 1, Bitcoin broke $100 for the first time. I played more and more, and the value of my winnings increased more and more. I was suddenly into big money.
By April 10, I had worked my way up to almost $500,000. I realized how lucky I was to have this amount of money. It was Bitcoin, but it was one click away from being in my bank account: this was real money.
That morning, the crash began. I kept playing. On April 10 I lost all my profits. (I don't want to clutter the summary with specific details, but if you are interested, I posted them below.)
At this point I was in full-tilt mode. Mt.Gox was closed for a 24-hour cooldown following the crash, but even this 24-hour period was not enough for me. A part of me just shut off, and this was when I made the Really Big Mistake. I dipped into my student tuition loan (around $50,000). I turned into an animal, and I lost everything.
I literally went almost mad at this point. Out of grief I contacted bitzino and exchanged some pitiful emails. They were very supportive, emotionally4 . I am not even sure what I hoped to achieve (I did not sleep for 2 days, drank and took a lot of anti-anxiety meds, which can make you act in weird ways).
My fiancee knew I was upset, and I owned up that I lost a lot of money. I said it was due to the crash (which did happen on the same day). She could see the charts so she believed me, but she does not know that I lost every single cent. Lies, but I felt that I did what I had to do (her dad had a major gambling and alcohol problem, so I really could not break her heart like that.)
The money that I lost is for tuition. It's just under $50k as I already said. The most immediate payment is due end of May, which is around $5k (the remainder of this academic year). The rest ($40k) is due over the following academic year (13/14). If I can pay off the $5k I will at least survive until the summer and maybe nobody will notice. I have not told anybody what happened, except my flatmate who I have known since high school and am pretty close with.
The reality is I will most likely be forced to withdraw from the program, because the payments are due September and Christmas and my visa status does not permit me to work part-time. I will have to return home to England and I will lose my fiancee (who is also on a student visa).
So this is pretty much my story. I meant for this to be short, but I now I'm almost at the word limit. I hope there is still room for questions! I realize that there are a lot of people who will say that I had it coming, and I fully accept that. The truth is that I am a bad person, and it was not even some conflict of good and bad, this was just all bad. I lose as a human being, and I deserve nothing but the worst of what life has to offer me in the future. And if I sound incongruently cheerful, it's probably because the gravity of the situation has not fully sunk in yet. Trust me, I am not cheerful. I have literally lost everything, I am suicidal, and there is literally no silver lining here. So please reserve your judgment; I will be judged to the fullest extent over however long a time I have left to live. Gambling details:
By April 10, I had gambled my way up to almost $500,000. That morning, the crash began. I foresaw the crash, but like most speculators, I did not know where the top was going to be. It was at $266. I put in a sell when the price went below $230, which was my stop, but Mt.Gox (the main Bitcoin exchange) was lagged so badly that my order would not go through.
Not being able to sell, I got greedy and decided to "top up" one more time with roulette. I felt justified in this somehow because it was Mt.Gox's fault that I could not cash out my ridiculous profits. I started with a $100 bet I believe. I bet on red. What followed was a run of about 20 occurences of black5 . There must have been two reds in between the stream of blacks. After hitting the max bet I just kept hitting red, and it kept turning black. Once you hit the max bet, the martingale essentially turns into a random walk. So a single red does not save you. Instead you rely on more red than blacks, within a certain safety margin. I failed both the martingale and the random walk. I lost ~1800 BTC (~$380,000 and depreciating quickly) in less than 1 minute.
I still had $50,000 left in USD. After the crash died down, I immediately bought in BTC to make up the losses. I kept betting red, and hit another run of about 12-15 black5 . I lost the $50,000 the same way.
April 12: at this point I was in full-tilt mode. I figured if I can just double up, then I can at least make up for the previous bullet point, if not the one before that. I kept betting on red, as a matter of stubborn principle (surely not again). And I swear you could not make this shit up: another run of 10+ black5 . I lost it all.
1 Some of the names and places may be fictitious. 2 I was never a gambler, but I do have a degree in math: there's around a 90% chance that you will top up by 10% if you combine basic strategy with martingale. The inherent variance, 3/2 payouts and doubling makes the whole process very confusing to an untrained eye, and it's not that obvious that you are using a cheap and flawed betting system. Scraping a small profit is very easy and fun. I guess I just wanted to impress my fiancee and her friends. 3 The bad beats with Blackjack were mainly due to variance. The problem with Blackjack is that the house edge is calculated by considering a large number of hands with the same starting bet. But with martingales, getting a 3/2 payout is more beneficial with higher bets; likewise having to split/double is good with higher bets, but not good if you're up against the max bet. So the luck further compounded by variance of the bet amount with respect to the starting hand. In roulette the house edge is worse, the but game is a lot more homogeneous. 4 I gave bitZino about 6 months of their earnings from last year in just under one minute: http://arstechnica.com/business/2013/01/bitcoin-based-casino-rakes-in-over-500000-profit-in-six-months/ 5 The probability of a run of 7 black is just under 1%, which is a number that we can relate to, it's 1 in 100. Pretty unlikely. If your luck sucks you might hit it a few times. The probability of 10 blacks is just under 0.1%. So if you hit one of the above, then only count is 1 in 10 times. Your luck has got to really suck to hit that more than once. The probability of an initial run of 12 black is around 0.02%, which is just ridiculously low. The probability of 20 black is about 0.0001% which is astronomically low. Disregarding the 2 reds, since I hit the max limit, so not really a fair account, but still. This is almost impossible.
The Dice Game Another great game is called Dice, a crypto dice game. Here your task is to predict whether a number the dice will roll is higher or lower than a certain digit from the range from 0.000 to 99.999. This is not a classic dice game, but it still gives you a possibility to use different systems as Martingale or D’Alembert to predict the final outcome. www.ooobtc.com #ooobtc #obx #IEO #Coin_of_month #Crypto #bitcoin #ethereum #Airdrop #launchpad #blockchain #btc #toqqn #dogecoin # Btk #usdt #cryptocurrency #Btcone #OVC https://preview.redd.it/rdjzasfpgex21.jpg?width=400&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7d4e7215e6c107c25075de0813930bd9f91c808e
Another great game is called Dice, a crypto dice game. Here your task is to b a number the dice will roll is higher or lower than a certain digit from the range from 0.000 to 99.999. This is not a classic dice game, but it still gives you a possibility to use different systems as Martingale or D'Alembert to predict the final outcome. #ooobtc #obx #IEO #Coin_of_month #crypto #bitcoin #ethereum #Airdrop #launchpad #blockchain #btc #toqqn #dogecoin #Btk #usdt #cryptocurrency #Btcone #OVC. https://www.ooobtc.com/
Abstract We compute the revenue ratio of the Trail Stubborn mining strategy in the Bitcoin network and compare its profitability to other block-withholding strategies. We use for this martingale techniques and a classical analysis of the hiker problem. In this strategy the attacker could find himself mining in a shorter fork, but we prove that for some parameter values it is still profitable to not give up. This confirms previous numerical studies. References  I. Eyal, E. G. Sirer. Majority Is Not Enough: Bitcoin Mining Is Vulnerable, International Conference on Financial Cryptography and Data Security, Springer, p.436-454, 2014.  W. Feller.An introduction to probability theory and its applications, 2nd edition, Wiley, 1971.  C. Grunspan and R. P´erez-Marco. Double spend races, International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance, Vol. 21, 2018  C. Grunspan and R. P´erez-Marco. On profitability of Selfish Mining, arXiv:1805.08281, 2018.  C. Grunspan and R. P´erez-Marco. On profitability of Stubborn Mining, arXiv:1808.01041, 2018.  T. Koshy. Catalan Numbers with Applications, Oxford University Press, 2008.  S. Nakamoto. Bitcoin: a peer-to-peer electronic cash system, Bitcoin.org, 2008.  K. Nayak, S. Kumar, A. Miller, E. Shi. Stubborn Mining: Generalizing Selfish Mining and Combining with an Eclipse Attack, 2016 IEEE Europ. Symp. on Security and Privacy, 2016.  F. Stern.Conditional expectation of the duration in the classical ruin problem, Mathematics Magazine, 48, 4, p. 200-203, 1975.
Abstract We compute and compare profitabilities of stubborn mining strategies that are variations of selfish mining. These are deviant mining strategies violating Bitcoin's network protocol rules. We apply the foundational set-up from our previous companion article on the profitability of selfish mining, and the new martingale techniques to get a closed-form computation for the revenue ratio, which is the correct benchmark for profitability. Catalan numbers and Catalan distributions appear in the closed-form computations. This marks the first appearance of Catalan numbers in the Mathematics of the Bitcoin protocol. References  I. Eyal, E. G. Sirer. Majority is not enough: bitcoin mining is vulnerable, Int. Conf. Financial Cryptography and Data Security, Springer, p.436-454, 2014.  C. Grunspan and R. P´erez-Marco. Double spend races, arXiv:1702.02867, 2017.  C. Grunspan and R. P´erez-Marco. On profitability of Selfish Mining, arXiv:1805.08281, 2018.  C. Grunspan and R. P´erez-Marco. On profitability of Trailing Mining, ArXiv, 2018.  T. Koshy. Catalan Numbers with Applications, Oxford University Press, 2008.  S. Nakamoto. Bitcoin: a peer-to-peer electronic cash system, Bitcoin.org, 2008.  K. Nayak, S. Kumar, A. Miller, E. Shi. Stubborn Mining: Generalizing Selfish Mining and Combining with an Eclipse Attack, 2016 IEEE Europ. Symp. on Security and Privacy, 2016.  S. Ross. Introduction to Probability Models, 10th Edition, Academic Press Inc, 2012.  M. Williams. Probability with Martingales, 5th Edition, Cambridge University Press, 1991.
The Benefits and Downsides of Dollar Cost Averaging
Good Day Bitcoinmarkets, I thought it might not be a bad idea to discuss this investment method, and whether it should really be employed or not. My interest is personal, but perhaps others are in the same boat. So the idea behind dollar cost averaging, as I understand it, is to keep you average purchase price down. If I buy a bitcoin at $400 and it drops to $300, it makes sense to buy another bitcoin at that price. It would then only need to rise back to $350 for me to break even on my investment. In reality, following this method in a market that just doesn't want to stop going down is problematic. In order to keep your average purchase price down, you have to keep buying with every new drop. This will work out as long as it goes back up eventually, but as we've seen, there is no guarantee that it ever will. I believe the phrase is, "the market can stay irrational far longer than you can stay solvent." One of the key principles of investing that gets repeated time and again on this subreddit is "never invest more than you can afford to lose." However, if one were to follow the dollar cost averaging method, it can become very easy to break that rule. Much like the martingale betting system, it requires you to keep putting more and more money on the line until you finally get a win, and the success of the system requires a win eventually. (Which may never happen.) Though I'm nowhere near the level of investing more than I can afford to lose, by following this method, I've found myself with an uncomfortable percentage of my portfolio invested in this speculative asset. On a psychological level, I feel it's enabling me to feel really good about small gains. Buying on the recent drop to $278 made me feel really great about the rise back to it's current level, but I'm still below my dollar cost average, and it could drop again. Anyway, I'm starting to feel like this is a very bad and very dangerous system of investing, and I was just curious to hear other people's thoughts on it. Edit: Thanks everybody for your input! TIL that I did not know what DCA is.
The EBBCOIN scam is going to be exposed here. Watch how it works. This has been trade is not based on a “one off” trade but rather a series of trades with an ever increasing stake to recoup the previous losses and then make a slight profit when the last trade in the series wins. This was once termed a “Pyramid Staking Plan” (aka Martingale) and every Martingale strategy ever devised has one thing in common. THEY ALL IMPLODE AND LOSE ALL THE MONEY... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system)) Short term--- It is possible to do well with martingale over a short number of trades. Long term--- account destruction. Eventually, you will hit a losing streak that will wipe you out. It may happen in the first week, or it may take a few months. Rest assured, it will happen. It is a mathematical certainty. Before the last trade won in this losing sequence of trades the drawdown was already a staggering -23%.If that trade had lost, I very much doubt whether the system could take the next stake of 22.40 regardless of the extraordinary high leverage used. Martingale strategy Warning, https://www.ebbcoin.io/ (look at the terrible site for fun!) WTF! Now we come to the whole point of this group and EBBCOIN. Your Myfxbook martingale system with its almost perfect equity curve is designed to entice novice investors to buy your coin and of course just before implosion EXIT SCAM with all the Bitcoin. You are nothing more than cheap criminals who have been exposed as SCAM ARTISTS. Only very gullible or very foolish ( and you know what they say about a fool and his money) would fall for this rubbish. We have to help new investors not get scammed. Remember an anonymous team is a huge red flag! Ask questions!
How to bet efficiently on Satoshidice and why you shouldn't use the martingale method
With Bitcoin and Satoshidice or similar websites, gambling has become easier than ever. I am sure that many of you will try it out at some point even if it is only for one bitcent. This also means that there'll be an influx of people who have never gambled in their lives and might take very bad decisions. This small guide is to provide an introduction to the odds offered by Satoshidice, and specially how to gamble if you're a practical person like me. The house always wins It is impossible to beat Satoshidice. This is the first rule you must learn. Whatever happens on that site, as long as it keeps running, it will make profit from the small advantage it has on each bet. This also means that in the long run you'll be losing money and that if you kept playing forever there is no way you would make a profit. Assuming that you're a practical person like me and that you play to win some money (not only to lose it) then it is necessary that you stop at some point. The sooner, the better. What is the Martingale method and why you should avoid it The Martingale method is a very popular betting system that will eventually bring you more grief than pleasure because its design often causes players to spend more than they are willing to bet just to recover the initial investment. Let's assume you're playing at 50% odds. The strategy you would have to follow, according to Martingale would be to bet always the same amount if you win, and keep betting double if you lose. Let's say I bet 1 BTC and I win. Good! Next time I'll bet another BTC... but I lose this time. In order to recover from the loss and still make a profit I should bet double next time, which would be 2. If I win the 2 BTC bet I will have won aproximately 4 BTC. Since I have made a total investment of 3 BTC (first bet + second bet) and won 4 BTC I have effectively recovererd all my previous bets and still made the profit I wanted in the first place. So... Where's the problem? First of all, you need to remember that even if you had huge funds and there was no Maximum bet that in the end you would still lose a small percentage of your total investment due to the house advantage. But that's not all:
You don't have unlimited money.
There is a Max bet which you'll eventually reach and which breaks the system.
To see how fast and easy it is to reach the Max bet, you must remember that the bet increase will be exponential. Usually on the 50% bet on Satoshidice the Max Bet is 250 BTC. We'll assume we're starting with a 1 BTC bet. 1 BTC - First Bet 2 BTC - Second Bet 4 BTC - Third Bet 8 BTC - Fourth Bet 16 BTC - Fifth Bet 32 BTC - Sixth Bet 64 BTC - Seventh Bet 128 BTC - Eigth Bet (Last bet) ~256 BTC - Out of limits!~ Assuming you follow this method, you could lose 7 times in a row and then recover all your investment + make your original profit of 1 BTC by winning on the eigth time. The chance of winning during one of those eight times before you hit the limit is 99.6%. But just take a look at what you are really doing and why there is no point in Martingale: By the eigth bet you will have made a total investment of 1+2+4+8+16+32+64+128 = 255 BTC just to win one miserable BTC. Assuming that you have the money, you'll be betting $3442 just to win a little less than $13.5 Of course the odds of losing are very low and they will be even lower if you start with 0.01 instead of one whole bitcoin... but were you willing to bet so much money in the first place? And trust me, if you keep doing this it will bite you and you'll end up loisng much more than you ever intended to bet. Here's a nice video of a guy who tries to show it live and miserably fails and loses. Let's roll back to the first example and take a look at what happened: First bet: 1 BTC - We lose Second Bet 2 BTC - We win 4 BTC What are the chances of winning the second time? 75% What is our investment/return ratio: 3:4 It is exactly the same to bet 2 times on 50% using Martingale than just placing a single 75% bet. If you were willing to bet and risk 3 BTC with 75% chance in order to win 1 additional BTC, why didn't you directly place a 75% bet? What Martingale does is pushing you always further to risk money you didn't want to risk in the first place. How to bet efficiently
Determine how much you're willing to lose on a single day.
Determine how many different days you'll probably be playing.
If you're an avid gambler and you know you're going to play many games, then it is possible to bet on low odd games because you know that if you lose one time there will probably be another time in which you will break even or even make a slight profit. If you don't gamble often, then you should stick to the high odd games. You know that if you lose you're probably not going to be back tomorrow in order to keep pushing the odds, so it is important for you to make a profit as fast as possible. Now that you know this, place your max bet, all or nothing, on the virtual dice table and cross your fingers. If you win: Horray! You have won Satoshidice! You have made a profit even though the odds were against you. Now stop playing. Forever. Of course you could continue playing and try to maximize your profit, but remember that each time you visit Satoshidice the chances are that you will lose a small percentage of thet total accumulated investment and that you'll never make a profit. If you keep playing, you are bound to lose. It is only a matter of time. Also, remember that the more you bet, the more you will end up losing. The only way to make money from satoshidice is in the short time. If you lose: Don't try to bet double or to recover that bet by betting more than you were willing to lose in the first place. You will only be fooling yourself. Close the website and return another day when you've got more money that you are willing to risk. Remember that if you keep playing, odds will be against you and that it is possible that you never recover your initial bet investment or even make a profit. If you keep playing in a regular manner, it is probable that you recover that amount but it is not certain. That is the reason why you should always bet money you are willing to lose. Question: Why would you want to bet it all at once? If you're playing for fun then you might want to split the amount you're willing to risk and make several smaller bets. But in the end it is exactly the same. Don't fool yourself thinking that by making smaller bets you are increasing your luck. Remember that in the end it is exactly the same as placing one big all or nothing bet.
Introduction Congratulations on owning some Bitcoins and being a part of this Global Revolution! If you don't already own one, buy one easily from an exchange like Bitstamp.net, Coinbase.com, or from someone near you at Localbitcoins.com. Once you own Bitcoins, you can easily trade them for any available Alternative Cryptocurrency from an altcoin exchange like Cryptsy. I like to use Cryptsy because they have so many available coins, and I also find them to be quite reliable. So you've been seeing tons of people making money trading Altcoins, while you've been losing tons of Bitcoins buying high and selling low? Whether you're simply frustrated with your "bad luck", or just want to learn more & make more Bitcoins daytrading, I'm here to help! So here's an easy-to-understand guide to picking and trading Bitcoin and Altcoins profitably, and of course, more essential daytrading tips to help us all become profitable cryptocurrency traders. I know you're all eager to make money, but keep in mind that nothing comes for free and I can only help you so much. Just because you've made 5 good trades doesn't make you a profitable trader, and neither does making 5 bad trades necessarily mean you're a lousy trader. Anyone can flip a coin and see 'heads' 5 times in a row. What we want to look for is consistency, and to do that you'll have to start forming Your Own trading strategy. Before I go on, keep these following points in mind when building up your personal Trading Strategy:
Learn the basics; read my last few blog posts, and also other trading resources to learn more about Technical Analysis and other trading tips. "I don't think that you can write music if you don't know how to play an instrument. You have to know the basics, then you can go forward." ~Alber Elbaz
Discipline is key; be patient and build up a fundamental understanding of the markets, and more importantly, hone that keen trading sense of yours. We all have it in us, just takes a little discipline and practice.
Markets are ever-evolving; don't treat it like its static because past actions are not an indication of future performance. Always be open to and learn from other's opinions, be objective about it, and constantly adapt and improve your strategy.
Lazy = poor; Nobody can help you but yourself, don't expect to be spoon-fed. Be an active learner and constantly seek new ways to improve your strategy. Reflect on what went wrong and don't make the same mistakes again. When in doubt, ask Google.
There's only so much you can learn from reading; you don't learn how to ride a bicycle by reading a book, go out there and put your knowledge into practice. Start small to test your strategy and build your confidence.
How to Find new Altcoins? So the first thing is to actually find new altcoins and to read up more about what it has to offer. To begin with, I always browse through the Alternative Currency announcements page on Bitcointalk to see what's popular. All new coins are definitely posted here so you shouldn't miss anything, and since threads with the newest post always appear on top, you usually don't have to look further than 2 pages. Things to look out for include the added value a coin brings (as I'll explain more in the next section), as well as the popularity and virality of the altcoin (i.e. high number of pages in a short time). Another place to look at is Cryptocointalk where you can find a long list of altcoins available, sorted according to new coins or by algorithm. This list is not completely updated, but is organized much better if you want to find out more about a particular coin. Secondly, you also want to cross-check your information about these coins on social media sources such as Reddit and Twitter. Start off on...
What to Look Out For? With so many alternatives out there, we really need to be picky when choosing the next altcoin because you don't want to spread yourself too thinly. Firstly, clones of existing ideas/coins are mostly not worth holding for anything more than the short-term. In this sense, there's a few different kinds of coins with their respective leaders in each category, each with their own pros & cons:... Where to Buy? When/What's a Good Price to Buy/Sell? For new altcoins, and especially clones, all you'll need is to find a good price to buy, since there's no charts for you to do any TA yet. I found a pretty useful formula for calculating a fair price, and have found it to be pretty accurate. Use it, let me know what you think about it, and how we can improve it to apply to different coin types etc. by Tweeting me or leaving a comment below. Here's the Secret Formula to calculate a Fair Price for new altcoins: (Maximum BTC Supply ÷ Maximum Altcoin Supply) ÷ 5000to10000. #crystalball How to Trade? Obviously, the most important rule in trading is to "buy low sell high". Unfortunately, that's usually harder to execute than it sounds because of panic and greed. Haven't you learn enough from bubbles? Whatever goes up must come down. Markets will always look for a correction after a big spike. Don't chase the bubble! EVERY parabolic curve/rise is a bubble, and a chance for you to sell your altcoins for a profit. Just wait for it and always set sell positions ready to eat up those buys. https://twitter.com/onemanatatime/status/432542011410104321 Trading Tips #0: Don't join Pump & Dumps, period. For someone to make money, someone else has to lose. Don't be the one caught with the short end of the stick. #1: Always trade with a plan. Before entering a trade, plan not only your entry but also your exit. Don't fall into the trap of panic buying/selling. Once you get over that, everything will start to come together. #2: Discipline. Be patient and wait for good setups. Plenty of opportunity everyday, don't spread too thin. On a side note, I can't wait for a margin platform for altcoins to be built. If you're building one, hit me up and let see how we can work together (I'm a Business Development and Online Marketing Major). #3: Money management. Don't spend more than 5-10% of your entire BTC portfolio on a single Altcoin, unless you're damn sure it's gonna be profitable in the mid-long term. #4: Understand human psychology. Here's a good 5 part series to get you started: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEcZQdCEiKE Most Common Pitfalls 1) Placing too much importance on:
Buy/Sell Walls. I barely look at buy/sell walls because these can be manipulated so easily especially for lower volume altcoins. I only use this, if ever, to have a better idea of support/resistance levels, although I know many people will tell me these work wonders and I trust you too.
Market Capitalization. Market caps are nothing more than two numbers multiplied by each other; total supply and price. It gives you a good judgement of how a crypto is currently doing, but in no way does it say if an altcoin is a good buy/sell now. I think what's more important when looking for long-term buys is the total hashrate (and rate of growth) of the cryptocurrency.
News Stories. More often than not, news is already factored into price by the time you read about it. Of course, exceptions include "big" pieces of news such as China's government intervention, recent Russia's ban, and issues with (then) leading exchanges.
2) Overtrading. I'll let the guy whom I learnt all my Bitcoin trading fundamentals from speak about this: Bitcoin Trading Webinar - How To Make Money Trading Bitcoin (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJ-xROFn0zg). Follow him on Twitter @ChrisDunnTV (https://twitter.com/ChrisDunnTV). Long video, but worth it especially for beginners. 3) Not having a plan beforehand. I can't emphasize this enough. Many people jump into buying an altcoin without thinking about their exit plan. What is your target, when you do sell and take profit, when do you sell and cut losses, or do you have more funds/positions ready to buy more if it continues to dip? Are you holding this for the short term or long term? These are all important questions to ask yourself before making a trade. If you don't have a sound and comfortable strategy before entering trades, more likely than not, you're going to end up losing Bitcoins over the (not so) long run. 4) Trying to predict a bottom/top. Nobody can predict exactly where the price is going next, only a better and more informed guess. I personally think this is the toughest problem to tackle, because when greed takes over, you always think "I could have made so much more if only I sold higher or bought lower". 5) Chasing the bubble. What goes up must come down. https://twitter.com/onemanatatime/statuses/432546827196305408 6) Getting emotionally attached to a particular altcoin. I have to admit this is still a problem for me, and I'm still holding onto bags of WDC, ZET, EAC, MSC, that are currently unprofitable. I bought them earlier on, and didn't take profits from the bubbles. But most important thing is that we learn from our mistakes, and that's why I now like to sell some positions to get into a position to "freeroll". 7) Using Technical Analysis as the sole determinant for making trades. Every indicator is useless - by itself. The market is not stagnant, and prices are affected by everything we can, and cannot think of. Don't be bound by one system of analysis; use every single piece of information you can find, and objectively analyze the markets with a bird's eye view. My Cryptocurrency Trading Strategy Firstly, I must emphasize that I'm VERY Bullish on Bitcoin for the Long Term. I've invested every single FIAT dollar I have into Cryptocurrencies since November 2013, and I literally have to start selling Bitcoins 2 months later to pay my rent (or wait for a Bitcoin ATM to appear here). Because of this, I spend a ton of time & effort researching Bitcoin and Altcoins to constantly look for ways to grow my number of Bitcoins. I also have a high risk propensity and so not all my trades will be comfortable for you. My point basically is that nobody's situation is exactly the same, so keep in mind that you'll have to build your own strategy to suit your personal needs, risk preference, available resources, and environment... My Current Altcoin Watchlist Long Term:
Reggie Middleton's UltraCoin layer
Others (Not so impressive but still watching):
MaxCoin. Way overpriced. Could probably fall 10x-100x. Wait and see where the bottom is.
KarmaCoin. Decently priced. I think 1 to 2 Satoshi is definitely a steal. Provided this coin can gain enough traction for a bubble.
Cryptocoinchart.info recently launched a new Social Trading feature; Investment Club. Pretty cool. Check it out: http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/v2/investment_club. Don't forget to stop by periodically and bookmark my Cryptocoinchart Investment Club profile (http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/v2/investment_club/trade12) for updates on which coins I'm eyeing/buying. Frequently Asked Questions 1. How do you feel about XYZ coin? First of all, there are over 100 altcoins out there, so don't expect me to know about every coin. If it's an exactly clone of Bitcoin, Litecoin, or anything already available, chances are, it's not worth either of our time. Secondly, read my tweets and do your own research (lazy = poor). If its worth mentioning, I probably did mention it. If you can't find it on my timeline because its too cluttered, again, do a Twitter search for the Altcoin and find out what the World has to say about it. Thirdly, there's 100s of altcoins out there for you to choose from. Don't spread yourself too thin and buy into every possible bottom. Leave the shitcoins to die, and stick to altcoins with a stronger fundamentals. 2. If I'm holding a bag of XYZ coin, should I just wait or sell for a loss now? Rule #1 of the game: Buy Low Sell High. But obviously easier said than done. If you think the coin isn't going make it to the mid-term, and want to liquidate them, you have two options. Sell now and take the loss; that's the hardest thing to do, but also what every good traders knows he needs to do. Or if you think the coin has potential, buy more at where you think is a low, so your average buy price drops, and you can liquidate some/all as soon as it bounces back up. Think Martingale (doubling) strategy.
P.S. This post took 5 months of hard work and research, and one full work day (with overtime) to write. Feel free to donate some coins my way or send some altcoins to my Cryptsy Trade Key: 9c1e289981a685bf0b8a4e48bc00b35eb1380afa. BTC: 16ka98tnhs9fAjWEXRmEWVrPfTEwmr9orV LTC: LW4qr8aSfgTwGuU6uvEjnhNKRyJJR9iUbR Read the full post on: http://alunacrypto.blogspot.nl/2014/02/how-to-pick-trade-next-profitable-altcoin-bitcoin-daytrading.html P.P.S. I recently came across an idea of a Cryptocurrency Hedge Fund; form a network/team of crypto traders to synergistically work together and achieve profitable returns. Different teams mining, selling altcoins, buying altcoins, looking for potential entry positions, trading bitcoin etc. If you'd like to discuss the idea, feel free to email me at alvinlee133(at)gmail.com or hit me up on twitter @onemanatatime.
Hey Reddit gamblers, I am curious as to some of your opinions regarding the controversial "Martingale system". I understand how this is a much loved and then very quickly hated system of betting. I also fully understand the risks of using such a technique and how quickly it can turn a bank roll into a painful hangover. However. The internet has opened up a new world of opportunity in terms of gambling. While Martingale players have continued attempting the strategy in online casinos hoping to beat the odds it seems it may have gotten a little help in terms of bankroll management. One of the Martingale systems problems is how quickly the bets multiply and even quicker reach the max betting limit on tables. Enter Cryptocurrency (Bitcoin and the like) These currencies can be broken down into 0.00000001 if needed, this means with just 1 coin you can achieve almost 20 bets in a martingale system. Admittedly , you are playing for very little money each time but this can be done very quickly online. Now a bitcoin currently is worth around $600. But other cryptocurrency is much much lower,for example the popular DOGECOIN is worth around 38 cents per THOUSAND coins. My question to you, Would a Martingale system work pretty unhampered with the ability to sustain 20,30 and even 40 consecutive losses. I understand over a long enough lifeline it will even fail,however what are the odds being the highest recorded streak on roulette is 32 in a row. Opinions, thoughts all welcome! If you are interested in seeing what i mean try out this site. First is my refer link the second is the normal pending on which you would like to use. http://freedoge.co.in/?r=1384 http://freedoge.co.in/
So I discovered Satoshi Dice a few weeks ago. I was quite lucky and won 1BTC doing small bets in a few hours. I'm such a genius that I thought I'd become rich by applying my method to a bot, and lost everything I had won a few hours later :) Anyway, my SO saw the bot and thought it was cool and suggested me to share it with the world. So here it is if you are feeling lucky.
If you can't see the website wait a few hours. The domain is new and the DNS are still propagating. The bot is designed to use a Martingale system, but you can also bet a constant amount that you can change manually. You can configure the win threshold, your initial bet, the multiplier when you lose, and if you want to go back to your initial bet once you win a losing streak. If /Bitcoin has suggestions on more parameters or behaviours to add don't hesitate to tell me. (If you are a programmer don't judge me by the messy JS code. It was a one afternoon project and it was never intended to be shown to the world.) TL;DR I made a Satoshi Dice bot http://satoshidicebot.website/
Sie können das Martingale Trading System jederzeit mit einem kostenlosen Demokonto testen. Die meisten Broker stellen Ihnen hierfür 10.000 Euro als „Spielgeld“ zur Verfügung. Nutzen Sie am besten unseren umfassenden Forex Broker Vergleich, um den richtigen bzw. besten Broker für das Martingale Trading System in Deutschland oder ... The Martingale System. The Martingale System focuses on roulette bets on red or black, and is perhaps the most well-known strategy of all. With the Martingale system, you bet on one colour, and keep doubling your bet as long as you lose, until you win, at which you go back to the base bet. The Grand Martingale System– In Action. Grand Martingale example: Take your aim: You decide to start with $5 with the aim of winning $5. First spin: However, the first spin result is black and you’ve bet on red. Compare: The standard martingale system would now require a $10 bet, but the grand martingale system requires a $15 (you’ve ... One of the most famous and widely used Roulette strategies – the Martingale system – is a great example of a progressive strategy. Martingale suggests that you double your bet after every loss. This method is popular because it’s very straightforward and newbie-friendly. You start with a small amount, preferably the table minimum, and keep betting the same until you lose. When this ... ** Same as my previous martingale script but this version = opensource ** inwCoin Martingale Strategy is the proof of concept strategy that in the end, anyone who using martingale strategy will kaboom their portfolio. For those who don't know what is "martingale".. it's a simple double down strategy in the hope to cover the loss in previous entry.
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