XE: CAD / XBT Currency Chart. Canadian Dollar to Bitcoin Rates
Best USD to CAD Exchange Rates - Compare Providers & Save
Live: BTC to CAD: 17,056.67 CA$ Bitcoin Price to ...
XE: Convert XBT/CAD. BTC to Canada Dollar
[WTS] 1965, 1966 and 1967 Queen Elizabeth II Gold Sovereign 0.235ozt AWG
ITEM IS STILL AVAILABLE Selling some of my grandfather's old gold coins. First PM, First Served. Coins: Queen Elizabeth II Gold Sovereigns 0.235 oz troy AWG. Years: 2x 1965, 1x1966, 4x1967 Proof: https://imgur.com/a/BRxsCO5 Asking Price: $610 CDN + shipping/fees ($25 over spot $2500) PM about a discount if buying 4+ coins. Exchange rate is $1.00 USD = $1.33 CDN ~ Shipping: I live in Waterloo, Ontario, Canada. PM me if you are close enough to buy in person instead of shipping and we can work out a meeting spot. For Canadians, shipping costs $20 CDN (Quoted from Canada Post) For Americans, shipping costs $10 CDN (Canada Post charges less, it's weird) For International buyers, please PM me for a quote with country, city, postal code, and preferred carrier. Insurance from Canada Post to Canadians is 2.25% of insured value. Another carrier is needed for insured shipments to US/International. Open to buyer's preferred carrier. Insurance is optional when payment is sent first. Payment: Willing to use Bitcoin for all buyers. For Canadians: I prefer Email Money Transfer, PPGS+3%, PPFF For Americans: TransferWise, PPGS+7.2%, PPFF+3.5%. For International: TransferWise, PPGS +7.4%, PPFF+4.0%. Open to other means of payment. Mailing a USD check, waiting 20 business days to clear would work for me. I would have 0% fees with this. Certified checks clear faster but cost money. I will be posting other coins for sale soon, Canadian, American and foreign coins. PM me about a grouping discount.
ITEM IS STILL AVAILABLE Selling some of my grandfather's old gold coins. First PM, First Served. Coin: 1917 Netherlands 10 Guilder Gold Coin 0.19 oz t Proof: https://imgur.com/gallery/zTAJK7g Asking Price: $505 CDN + shipping/fees ($30 over spot $2500) Exchange rate is $1.00 USD = $1.33 CDN ~ Shipping: I live in Waterloo, Ontario, Canada. PM me if you are close enough to buy in person instead of shipping and we can work out a meeting spot. For Canadians, shipping costs $20 CDN (Quoted from Canada Post) For Americans, shipping costs $10 CDN (Canada Post charges less, it's weird) For International buyers, please PM me for a quote with country, city, postal code, and preferred carrier. Insurance from Canada Post to Canadians is 2.25% of insured value. Another carrier is needed for insured shipments to US/International. Open to buyer's preferred carrier. Insurance is optional when payment is sent first. Payment: Willing to use Bitcoin + 1% for all buyers. For Canadians: I prefer Email Money Transfer, PPGS+3%, PPFF For Americans: TransferWise, PPGS+7.2%, PPFF+3.5%. For International: TransferWise, PPGS +7.4%, PPFF+4.0%. Open to other means of payment. Mailing a USD check, waiting 20 business days to clear would work for me. I would have 0% fees with this. Certified checks clear faster but cost money. I will be posting other coins for sale soon, Canadian, American and foreign coins. PM me about a grouping discount.
Greetings, this is dumnem, also known as Theorchero, but you can call me Theo. I'm an experienced Tarkov player and I'm writing this guide to try and assist new Tarkov players learn the game, because it has one hell of a learning curve. We'll be going over a lot of different aspects of this guide, and it is going to be huge. Feel free to digest this in parts. Additionally, this is a work in progress. I will write as much as I can in one Reddit post, but subsequent parts will be in additional comments. Google Docs Version (Note: Link is placeholder atm) Disclaimer: I haven't played Tarkov regularly in a couple months. It's possible there has been extensive changes that I have not kept up with. If there is anything I have gotten wrong or may have omitted, please let me know. This is Primarily directed towards Tarkov Novices. It hopefully includes everything you need to know to be able to go into a Raid equipped for success and to successfully extract with gear. Want to play with friends? Want to have fun and learn Tarkov? Check out my discord here.
Escape from Tarkov is a tactical, realistic, FPS with MMO elements developed by Battlestate Games. It is currently in closed Beta. The game features several maps in which your primary character, your PMC, goes into Raids in order to find and salvage loot and useful equipment to survive and thrive in Tarkov. Death is very punishing in Tarkov. If you die you lose everything you had on you when you die (with the exception of what's inside your Container and your melee weapon) including any equipment you brought with you or what you found inside the Raid. Enemies can be players (PMCs) or 'Scavs' (Scavengers) that are either controlled by AI or by players. Unlike many shooters, AI enemies in Tarkov are deadly - they can and will kill you on sight. It features beautiful and immersive environments, intricate and in-depth weapon modification system, a complex health system, attention to detail with loot placement, and options for combat. Do you want to play slow and stealthy, to avoid fights, or set up a deadly ambush on an unwary foe? Or do you prefer to raw combat, where only your quick wit, placements of shots, and tenaciousness determines who gets out alive? It's your Tarkov. You make the rules.
Tarkov Resources - Useful links
I take no credit or responsibility for any of the content in these links. To the best of my knowledge, these are updated consistently and are accurate, but user beware.
Absolutely fantastic resource. You can visit them here. It is a massive collection of everything that we players have been able to find. They contain trades, user-created maps, lists of ammo, parts, weapons, loot, etc. If it's in the game, it's on the Wiki, somewhere. I highly recommend opening the wiki page for the Map that you plan on raiding in. Factory Customs Woods Shoreline Interchange The Lab ('Labs')
Map Keys and You
Huge collection of all the keys in the game. These are also on the wiki, but this page has them all on one page, and tries to inform the user if the key is worth keeping or using. Check it out here. This section is open to revision. Mention me in a thread (or in the comments below) about a resource and I'll see about adding it here.
Courtesy of Veritas (Send me his reddit username?), It's located here. (Open in new tab.) Contains: Detailed information about: Ammunition, Health, Firearms, Body Armor, Helmets, Rigs & Backpacks, Labs & Quest keys.
Tarkov features several maps - ranging from wide, beautiful vistas to ruined factory districts, to an abandoned laboratory where illegal experiments were being conducted. It is important to learn the maps you intend to play. In order to keep your gear, you must 'extract' at one of your designated exfiltration points. Not all exfils will be active every game, and some are conditional.
To see what extracts are available to you, double tap 'O' to show raid time and your exfils. If it has a ???? it might not be open.
You can load Raids in an OFFLINE status, which allows you to explore the map or practice against AI without losing gear. You do not keep any EXP or gear you find in the OFFLINE Raid, though. To access OFFLINE Raids, head into a Raid normally until you see this screen. Simply check 'Enable OFFLINE mode for this Raid' and you're good to go! You even have a choice on whether or not to add AI. You can also control how many AI enemies spawn, fewer than normal or a great deal more! You can even make Scavs fight each other. (Framerates beware.)
Gate 3 Extract A small, fast-paced map that was primarily created for PvP. Scavs spawn in all the time. Very close quarters, shotguns and SMGs tend to dominate here. PMCs can only access one Exit (Gate 3) without the Factory Exit Key. Good place to go if you need PMC kills as action is pretty much guaranteed. It is recommend NOT to bring in a lot of gear to Factory until you are experienced.
Extract map A fairly large map that was recently expanded. Essentially, players spawn either on 'warehouse' or 'boiler (stacks)' side. If you see a large red warehouse near you (Customs Warehouse), then you spawned on the warehouse side. If you don't, you likely spawned near Boiler side. The location for most quests in the game. Finding geared players here is very easy, so if you are low level attempting to complete early quests (like The Bronze Pocketwatch) it's recommend to AFK in the raid for 20 mins or so, as most players will have moved out of spawns and hit the 'hot' areas already, so it's less likely to be contested, so you may grab your quest item(s) and proceed immediately to Exfil. Contains a Scav Boss, which is a group of scavs with above-average to high-tier gear that has a chance to spawn in Dorms or Gas Station.
Woods Map with Exfil A very large map that is mostly just a large forest, with the occasional bunker, and the Lumber Mill in the center. The Lumber Mill is the primary point of interest, as it contains a couple quest locations and is the primary location to farm Scavs, as Scavs killed on woods is the only known location to find the Arsenal Key, which is the rarest and most valuable key in the game at the moment. Since the map is so large and open, sniper rifles with scopes usually reign king here. You will see a lot of players with Mosin rifles as they are a cheap way to train the Sniper skill (for a quest later on) and are capable of killing geared players and scavs alike. Overall, not usually very populated. An early quest from Prapor sends you here to kill a number of Scavs. A good map to learn the game, as although the loot is not fantastic, you can get experience with how the game runs and operates while fighting AI and possibly getting lucky with a key find off a scav.
Shoreline Map, with Loot, Exfil, etc A very large map, notorious for its FPS hit. Generally speaking, one of the better maps for loot. The primary point of interest is the Resort, but scavs spawn there, and is primarily occupied by hatchlings (players only with hatchet, ie melee weapon) and geared players. Resort has great loot, but requires keys to access most of it. A great map to learn though from new players as the outskirts still contains plenty of loot and combat opportunities with AI scavs. You can hit Villa, Scav Island, Weather station, Docks, etc and come out with a backpack full of valuable gear fairly easily. Location of many quests, including a large quest chain where players are required to kill many, many, scavs on Shoreline.
Detailed map Great, great loot area, but very complex map. Doesn't run very well on old computers. Features a mostly-binary exfil system like Shoreline, but.. kinda worse. Exfil camping is fairly common on this map. Huge map with multiple floors and many many different stores. Communication with teammates is a challenge on this map, but the map is also fantastically detailed. This map features a lot of loot that depends on the kind of store you're in. It's a great place to farm rare barter materials which are valuable to sell on the Flea market or to use for quests. An early quest (from Ragman) sends you here to kill a large amount of Scavs. I'd recommend getting Ragman to level 2 and accepting his quest before going to Interchange, as getting this quest done can take a while as it is and you want all scav kills to count towards progress.
Here's a map. This is a very complex map, so I highly recommend you read the Wiki article and look at all the maps to get an idea of what it's like.
INSURANCE DOES NOT WORK ON THIS MAP.
If you purchase insurance and lose your items on this map, doesn't matter from whom, you will not get them back.
LABS IS NOT LIKE OTHER MAPS. READ THIS SECTION CAREFULLY.
Labs is by far the most lucrative map to play at the moment. You can easily earn several million roubles per hour by killing Raiders (Juiced-up scavs that are ONLY on Labs), looting their equipment, then running to one of the many, many extracts. Extract camping is hard to pull off and pretty much not viable on Labs.
DISCLAIMER: Labs, like much of Tarkov, is under constant development, so issues may be fixed or created without warning. Always check patch notes!
Raiders are the avatars of Death in Tarkov, clad in USEC and BEAR hats, high-end armor, and plenty of firepower to boot. Do not fight Raiders directly. They WILL kill you. Raiders are absolutely broken this patch, and are getting fixed next patch to help fix their exploits of both poor AI and how they're a little.. insane. At the moment, the only way to kill raiders is to camp a hallway, room, or door, and attract the scavs to you, headshotting them the moment they enter before they have a chance to lock onto you. Raiders can see you through and shoot you through surfaces you cannot. This means you have to be very careful when engaging them. They are also often equipped with very high-end ammo, meaning that most faceshields (even Killa helmets) can be useless vs a Scav who spawned with 'big boy' ammo, 7N39. They can shoot your head if it's even slightly visible. They can prone instantly, as they have no ping. If they drop without slumping over, get to cover immediately. Typically, strategies to farm Labs (barring rushing certain rooms for static loot) involve rushing a camp-spot and baiting raiders to your location and taking them out quickly, efficiently, and with no mercy. There are many locations to camp, and since there's so many exfiltrations, it's ultimately up to personal preference. Raiders often spawn with armor (often Troopers and Gen4s) a rig (Sniper or Ana Alpha rig, usually) and a variety helmets and weapons. Always check the ammo the raiders spawn with. If they spawn with ANYTHING other than PS (and 12 gauge) LOOT IT! You can right click their magazine and hit 'unload ammo' to get the ammo without having to grab the mags, which saves space. BS, BT, BP, 7N39, etc can be worth several hundred roubles a round on the market. They're extremely valuable. Additionally, Raiders spawn IFAKS, Morphine, and grenades (F-1 & Flashbangs (Zarya)) with regularity. They can also spawn with random consumables and large clumps of cash in their pockets as well. They can spawn several backpacks, most of them being rather large, if relatively uncommon. Additionally, Raiders can have American names, breach doors, and mumble as if they are a USEC PMC because some of the Raiders are actually USECs. You will learn with experience what the Scavs will or will not say.
Experience Farming on Labs
Labs is perhaps the best place to farm experience on the current patch. Killing a Raider with a headshot awards 1100 Experience. This does not include any looting, inspection (searching bodies), examine, streak, or other experience. Killing a large sequence of Raiders gives additional bonus experience in the form of Streak rewards, usually 100 bonus exp per additional kill. Surviving the raid multiplies all of these sources of experience by 1.5x
Changes coming to Labs
Disclaimer: I am not a BSG developer or employee. This is what I have seen on this subreddit and heard elsewhere. Some might be purely rumor, but other points are confirmed by Nikita. Labs is currently undergoing an overhaul. At the moment, you require consumable Keycards to enter Labs, which may be purchased from Therapist or bartered Mechanic in exchange for 1 Bitcoin starting at Loyalty Level II. They can also be found in drawers and jackets. Scavs can drop permanent keycards that replace most keys used in the previous iteration of labs. The full extent of the changes coming is not known. Remember, you can load a map in OFFLINE mode to practice against bots or to learn the map without fear of losing gear.
Tarkov's Health System
Tarkov Wiki Article Tarkov has a very advanced health system, and while it might seem overwhelming at first, you'll get the hang of it rather quickly. It features a very wide variety of effects and injury, including hydration, energy, blood pressure, blood loss, fractures, contusion, intoxication, exhaustion, tremors and more. Not all of the Health System is implemented yet. Expect changes! Your character (PMC, or otherwise) has a combined Health of 435. Each of his limbs have separate health. Taking damage to a limb that reduces it to 0 'blacks' that limb. Blacked limbs are a problem. They greatly impair the activities your PMC performs, and taking damage in a blacked limb amplifies the damage by a multiplier and spreads that damage among your other non-black limbs equally. You cannot heal a blacked limb. Notes:Bloodloss applies damage to the affected limb and can be spread like other damage to a blacked limb. Treat immediately. Also causes significant dehydration! Losing a limb applies additional effects. Fractures also apply these effects but not the damage amplification (Except for damage if running on fractured leg.) Dehydration is what happens when your Hydration level reaches 0. You can view your Hydration level in your gear page, at the bottom left. Becoming dehydrated is extremely bad. You take constant damage. Taking dehydration damage can kill you if you have a black chest or head. Head/Chest: Bullet damage resulting in losing your head or chest is instant death. Note: Bloodloss resulting in your Head/Chest being black does not result in death, but any damage to them beyond that point will! A back chest will causes you to cough (much like your stomach!) Painkillers: Prevents coughing that comes from your chest. Doesn't help otherwise. Stomach: Massively increased rate of dehydration and energy loss. You must find liquids or exit the Raid soon. Additionally, your PMC will cough sputter loudly, attracting attention. Painkillers: Significantly reduces the frequency and volume of the coughs. Arms: Makes activities like searching, reloading, etc, take additional time, as well as adding a sway, reducing accuracy. Arms have a .7x damage multiplier. Painkillers: Reduces sway, removes debuff Pain. Legs: Blacked legs cause your PMC to stumble and be unable to run. Blacked legs have a 1x damage multiplier. Painkillers: Allows you to walk at full speed and to run. WARNING: Running while your legs are blacked or fractured WILL DAMAGE YOU.
Tarkov features many health items - 'Aid' items, which can be used to restore your characters health and to fix ailments or injuries he receives as the result of combat or mishaps. The two most important health conditions to consider are bloodloss and fractures, which have both been covered above. Some food items may have ancillary effects, such as losing hydration. Since in the current patch the only ailments to worry about are bleeding and fractures, it changes which health items are most necessary. We'll go over them below.
Medical Items on Wiki AI-2 medkit The newb's medical kit. You receive several of these when you start Tarkov - they'll already be in your stash. Available from Level I Therapist, they are cheap and effective way of healing early in the game. They will not stop bloodloss. Because of this, you also need to bring bandages or a higher-grade medical kit. Affectionately called 'little cheeses' by the Tarkov community. Using it takes 2 seconds, and because of how cheap it is, it's often brought in by higher level players to supplement their healing without draining their main kit (which is capable of healing bloodloss or sometimes fractures). Due to its short use time, it's often very useful during combat as you can take cover and quickly recover damage taken to a vital limb. Bandages The newb's bloodloss solution. Available from Therapist at Level I. A better version, the Army Bandage is available at Level II, after a quest. Mostly obsolete after unlocking the Car Medical kit. Activating takes 4 seconds, and removes bloodloss to one limb. Splint The newb's solution to fractures. Cheap, takes five seconds to use, and takes up 1 slot. Not generally recommended to take because fractures effects can be greatly mitigated with the use of Painkillers. Available from Therapist at Level I, no quest needed. Car Medical Kit The newb's first real medical solution. Available LL1 as a barter (2 Duct Tape) and available for Roubles after completing Therapist's second quest. Has a larger health pool than AI-2's (220, vs AI-2's 100), and removes bloodloss. Takes up a 1x2 slot, so requires to be placed in a tactical rig in order to be used effectively. Cheap and fairly efficient, takes a standard 4 seconds to use. Rendered effectively obsolete when the Salewa is unlocked. Salewa Good medkit for use in mid and end-game. Contains 400 total health and can remove bloodloss. Relatively expensive at 13k roubles per kit, though. Same size as the Car medical kit, so requires a tactical rig to use effectively. Because Tarkov does not currently have effects like Toxication in the game at the moment, this kit is favored by most players who go into a raid with at least a moderate level of gear. Unlocked at Therapist Level II after completing a level 10 Prapor quest, Postman Pat Part II. IFAK Fantastic medical kit, and is the one preferred by most players. Features 300 health and the ability to remove bloodloss and a host of other negative effects that are not yet implemented into the game. It does not, however, remove fractures. Taking up only a single slot, it is favored by players in all stages of gear, and it is recommend to carry one in your Secure Container in case of emergencies. Is available at Therapist Level II for a barter (Sugar + Sodium), and may be purchased for Roubles at Level III after completing Healthcare Privacy, Part I. It is a fairly expensive kit, but due to its durability, its small size, and ability to remove bloodloss, it is a very common medical item used by players of all levels. Grizzly The 'big daddy' medical kit, boasting an impressive total health resource of 1800. It is also a very large kit, taking up 4 slots (2x2) - in order to be able to use this quickly, it would require specialized tactical rigs that feature a 2x2 slot. It removes all negative effects (some costing HP resource), including fractures. Used by highly-geared players who intend on staying in raids for an extended period of time, or by players with additional Secure Container space available in case of emergencies. It is available for barter at Therapist Level II, and purchase at Therapist Level 4.
Using any of these items results in your character being 'On Painkillers' which allows you to sprint on fractured and blacked legs, as well as reducing effects of fractures and blacked limbs, and removing the debuff Pain. Essentially, the only difference between most of these items are the speed of use, price, availability, and duration of the effect. Analgin Painkillers The holy grail of pain medication. With the recent changes, "Painkillers" now have 4 total uses, not 1. The total duration is now greater than Morphine and less risk of waste. Takes a short time to use, and is available from Therapist Level 1 for both barter and Roubles. Morphine Quick application of painkillers. Favored by some highly geared players as it has greater usability in combat then it's typical counterpart, Painkillers. Has a longer duration, but only one use. Is required for a fairly early Therapist (and a late Peacekeeper) Quest, so it is recommend to hoard 10 of them, then sell the rest unless you intend on using them. They are worth a good amount to Therapist and take up little space so they are a valuable loot item. Available from Therapist for Roubles at Level 4, after completing Healthcare Privacy, Part 3. Augmentin Basically a cheaper Morphine. One use, 260s. Not recommended over Painkillers due to its cost. No current barter for this item, so usually it's just a fairly expensive, small loot item to sell to Therapist when found. Ibuprofen Powerful painkiller. Lasts 600 seconds and has 12 uses. However, it is not recommended to use it as a Painkiller. It is very valuable because it cannot be purchased from Dealers, it must be found, and it is a barter component to late-game containers, the Keytool and THICC Items Case. Vaseline Powerful medical item. Cannot be purchased from dealers. Has 10 uses. Removes Pain. Golden Star Balm Fairly useful medical item. It can remove Pain and Contusion (not a big deal of a debuff, goes away on its own shortly) and provides a small bonus to hydration and energy. However, because Hydration is usually easy to restore (Liquids are easy to find as 'common' or 'trash' tier loot), and Energy at the moment can't run to 0 within current Raid timers, it is Recommended to just to sell to Therapist as a Loot item.
Medical Injectors are not covered here. Essentially, they are powerful but niche items with strong side effects. Most recommended use is to store them in your Secure Container and sell them either on the Flea Market or to Therapist for roubles.
To be able to Hotkey a medicine item, they must be in a tactical rig or your pockets.
Tarkov's Quest, Progression, and Experience Systems
Tarkov features a very immersive progression system where your main character (PMC) is going into raids to acquire loot - goods that can be sold for a profit to other players, to Dealers (NPC Merchants), or used to fulfill quest requirements in order to complete them and receive your rewards. Additionally, your main character will increase their prowess in a number of skills, which increases everything from how much they can run, increases the ease of which recoil can be controlled, and even how far you can throw grenades. These are referred to 'soft skills.' Additionally, your PMC is assigned a Level. You can increase your Level by earning Experience - which is rewarded by performing numerous tasks throughout the Raid, completing quests, examining new items, killing other players and Scavs, etc. Successfully extracting from a raid will increase the experience you earn from the raid via a multiplier. Increasing your PMC's level will allow you to complete additional quests, which increases your Reputation with certain Dealers (and may reduce your Reputation with others) allowing you access to better equipment to purchase. Additionally, completing quests will often reward you with large sums of currency and sometimes equipment, and certain quests unlock items for purchase from that dealer. A Dealer's arsenal of available weapons, ammo, mods, medication, containers, and etc to purchase by you is determined by their Loyalty Level - or LL, for short. Certain Dealers specialize in different kinds of equipment, and they will pay different rates or straight up not buy particular items. In a future release, eventually Dealers will offer discounts to the player based off their Loyalty Level. Article on Dealers
Increasing Loyalty Level
Increasing your Trader's loyalty level is extremely important to your progression and overall success in Tarkov. Being able to purchase better Ammo and Equipment is essential to being able to fight other players and secure their loot for your own. Owning Prepare for Escape and Edge of Darkness (EoD) editions of Escape from Tarkov will increase your starting Reputations with Traders. It is unclear if this change will stay after the game's full release. Typically though, you need three things to increase your Trader's level.
This is accomplished via quests. Completing a quest will reward you with an increase in the quest givers' reputation, sometimes an increase in another trader's reputation, and sometimes will reduce the Reputation of another trader. Not all Traders need a certain level of Reputation to increase their loyalty Level to II. Peacekeeper and Ragman, for example, just need you to spend a certain amount of money with them.
Character Level and Experience Gain
The primary gate behind your trade level (and thus your overall economy and gear leverage) is your Character Level. You increase this by gaining Experience. The easiest way to gain experience is to Loot high value areas, fight players, and kill scavs while completing quests. Generally speaking, your level will advance as you play the game at a moderate pace. One way to farm experience though is to avoid looting all-together and just focus on killing a large number of scavs from a safe distance, after learning where they tend to spawn on any given map. This patch however, labs is fantastic for experience gain. (See above.) Another strategy (albeit one that takes longer) is to loot everything, then drop what you don't want. You gain experience for finding items and picking them up, so picking them up to drop them is technically the best way to gain the most exp per kill. You can receive additional bonuses to Experience earned. Successfully extracting will increase your experience by a multiplier, typically 1.5x the experience gained during the raid, escaping also rewards a 300 exp Escape bonus which is added to your total before the multiplier is applied. You can also receive experience bonuses for Exploration, so visiting different parts of the map will reward you with sums of experience, usually 100 to 300 or so. Killing multiple enemies in a row will reward you with Streaks, whose rewards increase as you get more kills. Getting a kill with a Headshot also significantly improves experience gain from kills. You also receive a (very small) bonus when you survive consecutive raids. Note: Completing a Raid too early (via extraction) will cause you to receive a Run-Through status, which reduces experience earned in that raid by 50%. Most Quests require you to be a certain level to unlock, and upon completion rewards you with a lot of exp and usually the ability to purchase specific equipment.
This is pretty self-explanatory. As mentioned above, Peacekeeper and Ragman can be increased easily just be selling and buying from them. If you need to artifically inflate the amount spent, a good idea is to purchase a large amount of cheap items from them and sell them back to the Trader. You still take a significant loss, usually around 50-60% per purchase, but since the money spent counts both items sold to the vendor and purchases, you get about 140-150% credit per item at about half the cost.
Not all dealers pay the same for certain items. It is important to note that a lot of this is my personal experience, and prices can fluctuate as the Developers may change them for any reason. Use your own common sense and check various dealers before selling particularly lucrative items.
Sells AKs, Magazines, many different Ammo types, Grenades, and weapon modifications. I don't tend to sell to him very often, as he doesn't pay the highest for any items that I have personally seen and because you tend to buy most Ammo and mags from him it's not a particular issue to level him up with money spent.
Sells medical supplies, food and drink, and storage cases, which are items that effectively increase the size of your stash because they have more space inside than they take up. Most storage items are restricted to certain item types. Pays most for items like Keys, Statues, Rolers, Bitcoin, etc. Many of these items should be sold on the market instead of to her, but often times it's not worth the hassle.
Pays least for items, sells items for more than other Dealers. Items other players have sold will appear here. Only sell items to Fence that other dealers will not take! Basically a placeholder for an expanded Market.
Sells various weapons, mods, ammo, Euros, and containers. Pays most for items like Armor, backpacks, headgear, facemasks, flashlights, sights, etc. It is important to note, that Skier will not buy Weapons or most Mods. That means for things like flashlights, you have to take the flashlights/sights off the mount or rail in order for him to buy them, but he pays the best.
Deals entirely in Western equipment, UN armor, helmets, etc. Will buy most items, but will pay USD for them. Deals entirely in USD. One good way to get his money spent requirement is just to buy USD, which is used for a later quest from Skier, which unlocks his quest chain. He has a lot of good deals, experiment for yourself. At the moment his MP5 for 10 'bars' knives (scav knives) is an exceptionally good deal and easy to accomplish for new players.
Sells mostly completed weapons with various modifications and unique names, and mods. Sells magazines and some ammo. Offers containers as you progress. His quests are easy to complete, but often are money dumps in exchange for large sums of EXP more than anything else. Pays the most for modifications (except for sights and suppressors) and stripped guns.
Sells backpacks, armor, tactical vests, and helmets mostly. Offers aesthetic clothing. Can obtain LL2 by just purchasing from him, does not require reputation. In fact, his first quest tasks you with that very objective. As far as I can see, he does not pay the most for any items in particular. But he is a very useful merchant once you have him at level 2. He will sell Scav Backpacks, which are an extremely efficient backpack to use as it's fairly large but very cheap.
Rule of Thumb for selling items at most value
Weapons: Strip the weapon! Take apart ALL pieces of it (including gas tubes, separating flashlights from ring mounts, etc), sell what you can to Skier. For the rest, sell to Mechanic. Keys, Food, Medical Items, Statues, Bitcoin, Rolers, etc: Therapist or the Market. For items like this, ALWAYS check the Market first! A lot of these kinds of items are in valuable trades or are required for quests; this means that other players are often willing to pay more for them, above trader prices.
Continued below in a comment, due to character limit.
Bitcoin Original: Reinstate Satoshi's original 32MB max blocksize. If actual blocks grow 54% per year (and price grows 1.54^2 = 2.37x per year - Metcalfe's Law), then in 8 years we'd have 32MB blocks, 100 txns/sec, 1 BTC = 1 million USD - 100% on-chain P2P cash, without SegWit/Lightning or Unlimited
Remember, regardless of "max blocksize", actual blocks are of course usually much smaller than the "max blocksize" - since actual blocks depend on actual transaction demand, and miners' calculations (to avoid "orphan" blocks).
For most of the past 8 years, Bitcoin has obeyed Metcalfe's Law, where price corresponds to the square of the number of transactions. So 32x bigger blocks (32x more transactions) would correspond to about 322 = 1000x higher price - or 1 BTC = 1 million USDollars.
We could grow gradually - reaching 32MB blocks and 1 BTC = 1 million USDollars after, say, 8 years.
An actual blocksize of 32MB 8 years from now would translate to an average of 321/8 or merely 54% bigger blocks per year (which is probably doable, since it would actually be less than the 70% increase in available bandwidth which occurred last year).
A Bitcoin price of 1 BTC = 1 million USD in 8 years would require an average 1.542 = 2.37x higher price per year, or 2.378 = 1000x higher price after 8 years. This might sound like a lot - but actually it's the same as the 1000x price rise from 1 USD to 1000 USD which already occurred over the previous 8 years.
Getting to 1 BTC = 1 million USD in 8 years with 32MB blocks might sound crazy - until "you do the math". Using Excel or a calculator you can verify that 1.548 = 32 (32MB blocks after 8 years), 1.542 = 2.37 (price goes up proportional to the square of the blocksize), and 2.378 = 1000 (1000x current price of 1000 USD give 1 BTC = 1 million USD).
Combine the above mathematics with the observed economics of the past 8 years (where Bitcoin has mostly obeyed Metcalfe's law, and the price has increased from under 1 USD to over 1000 USD, and existing debt-backed fiat currencies and centralized payment systems have continued to show fragility and failures) ... and a "million-dollar bitcoin" (with a reasonable 32MB blocksize) could suddenly seem like possibility about 8 years from now - only requiring a maximum of 32MB blocks at the end of those 8 years.
Simply reinstating Satoshi's original 32MB "max blocksize" could avoid the controversy, concerns and divisiveness about the various proposals for scaling Bitcoin (SegWit/Lightning, Unlimited, etc.).
This would maintain Bitcoin's decentralization by leveraging its economic incentives - fulfilling Bitcoin's promise of "p2p electronic cash" - while remaining 100% on-chain, with no changes or controversies - and also keeping fees low (so users are happy), and Bitcoin prices high (so miners are happy).
Details (1) The current observed rates of increase in available network bandwidth (which went up 70% last year) should easily be able to support actual blocksizes increasing at the modest, slightly lower rate of only 54% per year. Recent data shows that the "provisioned bandwidth" actually available on the Bitcoin network increased 70% in the past year. If this 70% yearly increase in available bandwidth continues for the next 8 years, then actual blocksizes could easily increase at the slightly lower rate of 54% per year. This would mean that in 8 years, actual blocksizes would be quite reasonable at about 1.548 = 32MB:
Hacking, Distributed/State of the Bitcoin Network: "In other words, the provisioned bandwidth of a typical full node is now 1.7X of what it was in 2016. The network overall is 70% faster compared to last year."
https://np.reddit.com/btc/comments/5u85im/hacking_distributedstate_of_the_bitcoin_network/ http://hackingdistributed.com/2017/02/15/state-of-the-bitcoin-network/ Reinstating Satoshi's original 32MB "max blocksize" for the next 8 years or so would effectively be similar to the 1MB "max blocksize" which Bitcoin used for the previous 8 years: simply a "ceiling" which doesn't really get in the way, while preventing any "unreasonably" large blocks from being produced. As we know, for most of the past 8 years, actual blocksizes have always been far below the "max blocksize" of 1MB. This is because miners have always set their own blocksize (below the official "max blocksize") - in order to maximize their profits, while avoiding "orphan" blocks. This setting of blocksizes on the part of miners would simply continue "as-is" if we reinstated Satoshi's original 32MB "max blocksize" - with actual blocksizes continuing to grow gradually (still far below the 32MB "max blocksize" ceilng), and without introducing any new (risky, untested) "game theory" or economics - avoiding lots of worries and controversies, and bringing the community together around "Bitcoin Original". So, simply reinstating Satoshi's original 32MB "max blocksize" would have many advantages:
It would keep fees low (so users would be happy);
It would support much higher prices (so miners would be happy) - as explained in section (2) below;
It would avoid the need for any any possibly controversial changes such as:
Bitcon Unlimited (the newly introduced parameters for Excessive Block "EB" / Acceptance Depth "AD").
(2) Bitcoin blocksize growth of 54% per year would correlate (under Metcalfe's Law) to Bitcoin price growth of around 1.542 = 2.37x per year - or 2.378 = 1000x higher price - ie 1 BTC = 1 million USDollars after 8 years. The observed, empirical data suggests that Bitcoin does indeed obey "Metcalfe's Law" - which states that the value of a network is roughly proportional to the square of the number of transactions. In other words, Bitcoin price has corresponded to the square of Bitcoin transactions (which is basically the same thing as the blocksize) for most of the past 8 years. Historical footnote: Bitcoin price started to dip slightly below Metcalfe's Law since late 2014 - when the privately held, central-banker-funded off-chain scaling company Blockstream was founded by (now) CEO Adam Back u/adam3us and CTO Greg Maxwell - two people who have historically demonstrated an extremely poor understanding of the economics of Bitcoin, leading to a very polarizing effect on the community. Since that time, Blockstream launched a massive propaganda campaign, funded by $76 million in fiat from central bankers who would go bankrupt if Bitcoin succeeded, and exploiting censorship on r\bitcoin, attacking the on-chain scaling which Satoshi originally planned for Bitcoin. Legend states that Einstein once said that the tragedy of humanity is that we don't understand exponential growth. A lot of people might think that it's crazy to claim that 1 bitcoin could actually be worth 1 million dollars in just 8 years. But a Bitcoin price of 1 million dollars would actually require "only" a 1000x increase in 8 years. Of course, that still might sound crazy to some people. But let's break it down by year. What we want to calculate is the "8th root" of 1000 - or 10001/8. That will give us the desired "annual growth rate" that we need, in order for the price to increase by 1000x after a total of 8 years. If "you do the math" - which you can easily perform with a calculator or with Excel - you'll see that:
54% annual actual blocksize growth for 8 years would give 1.548 = 1.54 * 1.54 * 1.54 * 1.54 * 1.54 * 1.54 * 1.54 * 1.54 = 32MB blocksize after 8 years
Metcalfe's Law (where Bitcoin price corresponds to the square of Bitcoin transactions or volume / blocksize) would give 1.542 = 2.37 - ie, 54% bigger blocks (higher volume or more transaction) each year could support about 2.37 higher price each year.
2.37x annual price growth for 8 years would be 2.378 = 2.37 * 2.37 * 2.37 * 2.37 * 2.37 * 2.37 * 2.37 * 2.37 = 1000 - giving a price of 1 BTC = 1 million USDollars if the price increases an average of 2.37x per year for 8 years, starting from 1 BTC = 1000 USD now.
So, even though initially it might seem crazy to think that we could get to 1 BTC = 1 million USDollars in 8 years, it's actually not that far-fetched at all - based on:
some simple math,
the observed available bandwidth (already increasing at 70% per year), and
the increasing fragility and failures of many "legacy" debt-backed national fiat currencies and payment systems.
Does Metcalfe's Law hold for Bitcoin? The past 8 years of data suggest that Metcalfe's Law really does hold for Bitcoin - you can check out some of the graphs here: https://imgur.com/jLnrOuK https://i.redd.it/kvjwzcuce3ay.png https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/800/1*22ix0l4oBDJ3agoLzVtUgQ.gif (3) Satoshi's original 32MB "max blocksize" would provide an ultra-simple, ultra-safe, non-controversial approach which perhaps everyone could agree on: Bitcoin's original promise of "p2p electronic cash", 100% on-chain, eventually worth 1 BTC = 1 million dollars. This could all be done using only the whitepaper - eg, no need for possibly "controversial" changes like SegWit/Lightning, Bitcoin Unlimited, etc. As we know, the Bitcoin community has been fighting a lot lately - mainly about various controversial scaling proposals. Some people are worried about SegWit, because:
It's actually not much of a scaling proposal - it would only give 1.7MB blocks, and only if everyone adopts it, and based on some fancy, questionable blocksize or new "block weight" accounting;
It would be implemented as an overly complicated and anti-democratic "soft" fork - depriving people of their right to vote via a much simpler and safer "hard" fork, and adding massive and unnecessary "technical debt" to Bitcoin's codebase (for example, dangerously making all UTXOs "anyone-can-spend", making future upgrades much more difficult - but giving long-term "job security" to Core/Blockstream devs);
It would require rewriting (and testing!) thousands of lines of code for existing wallets, exchanges and businesses;
It would introduce an arbitrary 1-to-4 "discount" favoring some kinds of transactions over others.
And some people are worried about Lightning, because:
Your funds "locked" in a Lightning channel could be stolen if you don't constantly monitor them;
Lighting would steal fees from miners, and make on-chain p2p transactions prohibitively expensive, basically destroying Satoshi's p2p network, and turning it into SWIFT.
And some people are worried about Bitcoin Unlimited, because:
Bitcoin Unlimited extends the notion of Nakamoto Consensus to the blocksize itself, introducing the new parameters EB (Excess Blocksize) and AD (Acceptance Depth);
Bitcoin Unlimited has a new, smaller dev team.
(Note: Out of all the current scaling proposals available, I support Bitcoin Unlimited - because its extension of Nakamoto Consensus to include the blocksize has been shown to work, and because Bitcoin Unlimited is actually already coded and running on about 25% of the network.) It is normal for reasonable people to have the above "concerns"! But what if we could get to 1 BTC = 1 million USDollars - without introducing any controversial new changes or discounts or consensus rules or game theory? What if we could get to 1 BTC = 1 million USDollars using just the whitepaper itself - by simply reinstating Satoshi's original 32MB "max blocksize"? (4) We can easily reach "million-dollar bitcoin" by gradually and safely growing blocks to 32MB - Satoshi's original "max blocksize" - without changing anything else in the system! If we simply reinstate "Bitcoin Original" (Satoshi's original 32MB blocksize), then we could avoid all the above "controversial" changes to Bitcoin - and the following 8-year scenario would be quite realistic:
Actual blocksizes growing modestly at 54% per year - well within the 70% increase in available "provisioned bandwidth" which we actually happened last year
This would give us a reasonable, totally feasible blocksize of 1.548 = 32MB ... after 8 years.
Bitcoin price growing at 2.37x per year, or a total increase of 2.378 = 1000x over the next 8 years - which is similar to what happened during the previous 8 years, when the price went from under 1 USDollars to over 1000 USDollars.
This would give us a possible Bitcoin price of 1 BTC = 1 million USDollars after 8 years.
There would still be plenty of decentralization - plenty of fully-validating nodes and mining nodes), because:
70% yearly increase in available bandwidth, combined with a mere 54% yearly increase in used bandwidth (plus new "block compression" technologies such as XThin and Compact Blocks) mean that nearly all existing nodes could easily handle 32MB blocks after 8 years; and
The "economic incentives" to run a node would be strong if the price were steadily rising to 1 BTC = 1 million USDollars
This would give a total market cap of 20 trillion USDollars after about 8 years - comparable to the total "money" in the world which some estimates put at around 82 trillion USDollars.
So maybe we should consider the idea of reinstating Satoshi's Original Bitcoin with its 32MB blocksize - using just the whitepaper and avoiding controversial changes - so we could re-unite the community to get to "million-dollar bitcoin" (and 20 trillion dollar market cap) in as little as 8 years.
USD (DXY) up 0.15%, EUR down 0.23%, GBP up 0.10%, JPY down 0.01%, CNY Onshore down 0.16%, CNH Offshore down 0.19%, AUD down 0.18%
VIX up 4.16% to 10.01
Gold up 0.02% to $1,304.78
Silver up 0.17% to $17.44
Copper up 2.46% to $321.05
WTI Crude up 1.42% to $52.18
Brent Crude up 1.35% to $57.94
Natural Gas down 1.40% to $2.96
Corn down 0.28% to $3.52/bu
Wheat up 0.06% to $4.40/bu
Bitcoin up 0.51% to $5,643.07
Treasuries 2yr yields are up ~1.6bps at 1.509%, 10yr yields are up ~1.6bps at 2.289% and 30yr yields are up ~0.9bps at 2.814%
Japan 10yr yields 0.054%, up ~0.0bps on the day
France 10yr yields 0.805%, down ~0.8bps on the day
Italy 10yr yields 2.051%, down ~1.9bps on the day
Spain 10yr yields 1.577%, down ~1.8bps on the day
Germany 10yr yields 0.392%, down ~0.9bps on the day
What’s happening this morning? There were a bunch of headlines but the broader US narrative isn’t changing dramatically (US S&P futures are flat-to-up 1 point). The main eco highlight this morning was the China Sept inflation numbers (CPI was inline while PPI firmed by more than expected). Recall it was the China Aug inflation numbers back on 9/11 that kicked off the recent reflation trade. Central bank messaging was very mixed over the weekend as a slew of officials spoke on the sidelines of the IMF/World Bank meetings; the coming meetings are likely to bring tightening rhetoric/actions (ECB tapering guidance 10/26, BOE hike 11/2, FOMC hike 12/13) but officials remain concerned about the state of global inflation (and Draghi emphasized on more than one occasion how ECB ZIRP would likely stay in place for some time after the end of the LSAP). A Bloomberg article this morning talks about how the ECB may run out of QE capacity soon (the limit may be EU2.5T but the ECB will have bought EU2.3T by the end of this year). On the political front, US Sen. Susan Collins said she would likely vote “yes” on this week’s budget resolution (passage is necessary for tax but this is a relatively minor step in the overall process), the Catalonia situation remains unresolved as the region failed to clarify whether it intended to declare independence (it faces a new deadline this Thurs morning), tensions flared in Iraq as gov’t forces moved to recapture Kurdish-held oil fields and a military base near Kirkuk (this news has oil up ~1% this morning), and polls in Japan point to a strong victory for Abe’s coalition (the election is Sun 10/22). Stocks in Asia generally did well – TPX +0.62%, NKY +0.47%, Hang Seng +0.76%, HSCEI +0.72%, SHCOMP -0.36%, Taiwan +0.47%, Korea +0.26%, Australia +0.56%, and India up ~60bp. Tech stocks in Korea continued to bleed lower (Hynix -2.2%, Samsung Electronics -0.15%) while they generally saw gains in Taiwan (Largan +4.05%, Hon Hai +1.4%, Quanta +7%, TSMC +0.21%, etc.). Europe’s major indices are flatto- up small; basic resources are the big upside standout (SXPP +1.6% - it was bolstered Fri on the China import numbers and the PPI figure out of the country is helping this morning) while chemicals, media, healthcare, and energy are all doing well too; industrials, staples, tech, and utilities are small laggards. Convatec Group PLC is down ~20% after issuing a profit warning and Kuehne + Nagel is weak on earnings. o Tactically fade reflation as narrative begins fraying at the margin; 2-10 TSY spread just a few BPs from hitting 52w tights – the reflation narrative has enjoyed several weeks of uninterruptedly favorable news, including firming inflation, solid real growth, expansionary fiscal policy announcements, and hawkish CB rhetoric/decisions. However, the news is beginning to turn more neutral at the margin and this could cause pro-reflation themes to consolidate (at least).
Calendar of events for the week of Mon 10/16 – the main focus this week will be on earnings, China, and US taxes. The China National Congress kicks off Wed 10/18 and the country will be publishing a lot of eco data (inflation out Mon morning 10/16 and Q3 GDP along w/Sept retail sales/IP/FAI out Thurs morning 10/19). Investors will keep an eye on North Korea as media reports suggest the country could fire off some missiles around the China Congress. In the US investors will be digesting earnings (the week of 10/16 is the first busy one of the CQ3 season) and macro news should be limited aside from some Fed speakers (including Yellen who speaks Fri 10/20 after the close). The US tax process will continue w/the Senate voting on a budget resolution (likely Thurs 10/19) - passage is expected but the final vote will likely be close; Rand Paul seems a hard “no” while McCain and a few others are question marks; investors will be watching to see if any Democrats cross the aisle. Keep in mind that the Senate budget resolution will need to be reconciled w/the one from the House. Finally, the EU Leaders Summit runs 10/19-20 and the Japanese snap election takes place Sun 10/22.
Calendar for Mon 10/16 – the focus will be on earnings (SCHW pre-open and BRO, CE, IEX, NAVI, NFLX, Rio Tinto, RT, and SONC after the close).
Top Headlines for Monday
Economic data/monetary policy recap for Mon 10/16 – the main highlight this morning were China inflation numbers and the figures were generally solid (http://bit.ly/2yk55wf). CPI for Sept was largely inline (+1.6%) while PPI firmed by more than anticipated (+6.9% vs. JPM +6.3% and vs. the St +6.4%). o Central bank leadership uncertainty – Reuters discusses how the world’s major central banks may all see leadership changes over the next 1-2 years. The Fed, BOJ, and PBOC may all have new leaders in early ’18 while Draghi is due to depart the scene the following year. Reuters http://reut.rs/2yqVWkJ o Central bankers adopt dovish tone regarding policy at weekend IMF/World Bank meetings given tepid inflation trends – “central bankers cling to stimulus amid weak inflation” – WSJ http://on.wsj.com/2gIt6TW o Rosengren said in an interview Friday that a Fed rate hike in Dec remained likely. “A failure to tighten would risk both the labor market and financial prices getting into an area where we would have to react more quickly, and that would increase the probability that we end up having a recession” (WSJ http://on.wsj.com/2ieTh88); Rosengren added that he anticipates 3-4 hikes next year (Reuters http://reut.rs/2xIze41). o ECB running out of QE capacity – total ECB bond purchases will hit EU2.28T by the end of ’17 and some within the central bank think the ultimate limit is only EU2.5T (meaning it may only be able to purchase an additional ~EU200B worth of bonds in 2018) – Bloomberg. https://bloom.bg/2xIiBFP o China’s central bank governor said growth in the country could accelerate slightly to +7% in H2 – Reuters http://bit.ly/2xIsRTa
US taxes – while Republican deficit hawks aren’t nearly as assertive as they once were, disagreements over the fiscal implications of the GOP’s tax plan risk imploding the entire initiative. Politico http://politi.co/2idPsjK
US taxes – mortgage interest deduction to stay but become worthless? The GOP blueprint would double the standard deduction for individuals and couples, making the mortgage interest deduction worthless for anyone who doesn’t itemize. WSJ http://on.wsj.com/2ieCnGC
Thy God Emperor Trump privately predicts he will appoint four Supreme Court justices by the end of his first term – Axios http://bit.ly/2yr549d
Spain – Catalonia’s leader failed to clarify by a Mon morning deadline whether he declared the region independent. Spain has warned that anything but an unequivocal statement would be taken as a declaration of secession and invite reprisal from Madrid. Catalonia now has until Thurs morning to provide additional clarity. WSJ. http://on.wsj.com/2gdue15
Iraq tensions escalate - Iraqi forces moved to recapture Kurdish-held oil fields and a military base near the city of Kirkuk; the Iraqi gov’t was looking to recapture terrain it held prior to 2014 (when it abandoned the territory in the face of an ISIS assault) – Washington Post. http://wapo.st/2zc0aKL
Japan – Abe’s ruling coalition is on track for a big win in the upcoming election (the election takes place Sun 10/22) – Reuters http://reut.rs/2ynu7Io
Brexit – two of the world’s largest banks are now planning for a hard “Brexit” and will seek to protect their access to the EU once the UK departs in 2019 – Bloomberg https://bloom.bg/2xK2xZ6
S/TMUS – the companies will announce merger plans by the end of Oct or early Nov and the agreement won’t call for immediate asset sales (the companies want to engage w/regulators rather than volunteer asset sales) – Reuters http://reut.rs/2hJizrc
CHTR, VIA’b – the companies agreed to a short-term carriage extension so as to avoid an immediate blackout of Viacom channels on CHTR’s systems – Reuters http://nyti.ms/2yr561e
FB is looking to hire people w/national security clearance as it looks to battle against foreign operators looking to exploit its social network – Bloomberg
GE – the WSJ thinks GE should be aggressive in resetting expectations and capitalized on neg. investor sentiment; by frontloading the bad news now, GE could dramatically reset the bar and begin delivering upside surprises for investors down the road – WSJ. http://on.wsj.com/2zcVUuD
GE – the FT speculates on a dividend cut at GE – “GE is failing to cover its dividend payments from its core operating cash flows, a position that is ultimately unsustainable”; GE reports earnings Fri 10/20 and will update investors on 11/13; if the 11/13 restructuring plan isn’t aggressive enough, GE’s new mgmt. team could face pressure to break the company apart – FT http://on.ft.com/2kStpzO
Bombardier – the co is seeking investors for its aerospace businesses and is considering the sale of some operations; Airbus could buy certain assets from Bombardier – Bloomberg. https://bloom.bg/2gedsPc
Brooklyn Nets – Mikhail Prokhorov is seeking a valuation of ~$2B for the team as he pursues a sale – NY Post. http://nyp.st/2wXryeB Top Headlines from the Weekend
Sentiment – the cover article in this week’s Barron’s, entitled “Echoes of the 1987 Crash” (http://bit.ly/2gjdXeu), can hardly be accused of optimism (it focuses on the market’s structural changes and the rise of technology, including quant-based strategies and ETFs, and how this could sow the seeds for an ’87-like crash) but its sentiments aren’t necessarily unique either. The recent Economist title (from 10/7) lamented elevated asset valuations (“The bull market in everything” http://econ.st/2xVXOjv) and warned of what will happen once central banks begin withdrawing liquidity. BLK’s Larry Fink on Friday warned that risks in the financial system at present are comparable to 2007 levels (http://reut.rs/2zmk5ax). o Investors are right to be nervous but not necessarily because of technology or central banks. Rather, the fact the economy is late-cycle with valuations near peak levels is the main source of risk when it comes to equities. However, late-cycle doesn’t mean end-cycle (as discussed in this JPMorgan note http://bit.ly/2wTZRCK) and the absence of gross imbalances suggests a downturn isn’t imminent while multiples can easily expand a few additional turns (and each turn means ~140 SPX points given current earnings estimates while tax may add ~$7-10+ to EPS). o Flow vs. stock – central bank liquidity. The Wall St narrative when it comes to central banks and LSAPs tends to emphasize the “flow” piece of the equation (i.e. the actual buying of assets) but it is in fact the ownership of assets (“stock”) that acts as the mechanism for accommodation. Therefore rather than focus on central bank buying to gauge the appropriation of liquidity it is more critical to assess balance sheet size and on that basis central banks don’t appear on the cusp of an acute liquidity withdrawal (as discussed in this JPMorgan note – G4 CB balance sheets will be little changed over the next 3-4 years http://bit.ly/2xAACJL).
Yellen delivered comments Sun 10/15 in conjunction w/the IMF/World Bank meetings in Washington. Overall her speech echoed many of the same sentiments she’s expressed in recent communications and the a rate hike on 12/13 still seems likely. “Economic activity in the United States has been growing moderately so far this year, and the labor market has continued to strengthen”. Yellen says the recent storms will likely depress economic activity but only temporarily (she thinks jobs growth will rebound from the depressed -33K pace of Sept). “Wage indicators have been mixed, and the most recent news, on average hourly earnings through September, was encouraging”. Yellen thinks inflation will firm from the current soft trend (“my best guess is that these soft readings will not persist, and with the ongoing strengthening of labor markets, I expect inflation to move higher next year”) although she does acknowledge that something more structural may be occurring (“the fact that a number of other advanced economies are also experiencing persistently low inflation understandably adds to the sense among many analysts that something more structural may be going on…. we will be paying close attention to the inflation data in the months ahead”). http://bit.ly/2ykNjZM o Kuroda spoke over the weekend in Washington and said the BOJ would continue pursuing an aggressive monetary easing policy. “Achieving the 2% target is still a long way off”. WSJ. http://on.wsj.com/2kPwAZ3 o Draghi spoke positively about Eurozone growth but he reiterated a cautious view on inflation; Draghi said underlying inflation remains too weak and as a result the ECB would need to continue providing large degrees of monetary accomodation. WSJ http://on.wsj.com/2yLTeb9 o Central banks – tightening actions/rhetoric expected from three of the four major central banks before the end of the year: EBC 10/26 (media reports suggest the LSAP will be extended by 9 months w/the purchase pace tapered down from EU60B to ~EU30B), BOE 11/2 (market expects a hike), and FOMC 12/13 (market expects a hike).
Global central bankers and fin mins watch Fed chair process very closely – the identity of the next Fed chair was as key topic of conversation at the weekend IMF/World Bank meetings in Washington according to the WSJ (http://on.wsj.com/2gbzPor). o Why will be the next Fed chair? All the media reports suggest the race is still between Warsh and Powell (with the former person having a small edge) although John Taylor’s name is being mentioned more (Thy God Emperor Trump interviewed Taylor at the White House on Wed according to multiple media reports); of all the chair candidates (Warsh, Powell, Yellen, Cohn, and Taylor), Taylor would likely cause the most market disruption (at least initially). Larry Kudlow spoke on CNBC Fri afternoon (after the market close) and said Thy God Emperor Trump’s decision could wind up being a Warsh/Taylor combination (chaivice chair).
Budget resolution vote coming up in the Senate (likely Thurs 10/19) - Larry Kudlow on CNBC (at 4:40pmET Fri afternoon) reiterated that 50 GOP votes don't exist right now for the budget resolution in the Senate (the vote is tentatively scheduled for Thurs 10/19). Republican Sen. Thad Cochran's health issues (which could keep him from Washington) will complicate things for Republicans (Cochran was discussed in Politico Fri morning http://politi.co/2i8Plpu). o Sen. Collins said she would likely vote “yes” on the budget resolution this week (passing the budget resolution is a necessary, but rather minor, step in the tax process) – Reuters http://reut.rs/2wWzOvv
Taxes – passing a budget resolution is the easy part o Republicans are still struggling to reach a consensus around the most controversial pieces of the 9/27 blueprint. This week’s budget resolution vote is a necessary but rather easy part of the tax process. The harder parts of the tax debate are still waiting awaiting resolution – rates, brackets, income thresholds, deduction changes, deficit tolerance, etc. BAT and SALT were supposed to be the key incremental sources of revenue to pay for reduced rates but one is already scrapped (BAT) and the other (SALT) is facing enormous resistance. Some media reports suggest Republicans may reach a SALT compromise (whereby individuals with annual incomes of ~$400K+ will lose the ability to deduct SALT) but this doesn’t raise a whole lot of revenue. Even with reasonable dynamic scoring, it gets very difficult to lower rates meaningfully without any incremental revenue. o Tax – what will pass and when? Investors still think “something” can happen but that something will likely be much less ambitious than the 9/27 GOP blueprint (corporate rate to ~25-30% w/some lowemiddle-income individual relief). Nearly no one expects tax action in 2017. o Tax – what is priced into stocks? This question is being asked w/increased frequency but providing a precise answer is difficult. Roughly speaking, the St is penciling in ~$138-143 in tax-free 2018 SPX EPS w/a tax bill adding ~$5-15. At the middle of the tax-free range (i.e. $140) the SPX PE is ~18.2x – assuming investors would try and keep the PE around ~17.5x that would imply a 2018 EPS expectation of ~$145 which suggests stocks are assuming some benefit from tax (albeit a relatively small one).
Thy God Emperor Trump risks overloading Congress – Thy God Emperor Trump has thrown several contentious issues in the lap of Congress just as Senate and House Republicans undertake the most dramatic overhaul of the tax code since ’86. Between immigration/DACA, the Iran nuclear pact, and healthcare/ACA, Congress will be forced to act over the coming months while also juggling the tax debate. WSJ http://on.wsj.com/2wUhTFF o Thy God Emperor Trump’s move to end ACA exchange subsidies raises the risk of a gov’t shutdown on 12/8; Democrats may demand the funds be authorized legislatively or threaten a shutdown – Washington Post. http://wapo.st/2z7C7MT
Thy God Emperor Trump backs Bannon on pledge to primary insubordinate Republicans – Thy God Emperor Trump called Bannon and offered words of encouragement to the former strategist over his pledge to oppose any Republican not actively backing the president’s agenda – WSJ http://on.wsj.com/2wUhTFF o Bannon reiterates his disgust w/”Establishment Republicans” and vows “war” against McConnell – Bannon spoke over the weekend at the Values Voter Summit in Washington. http://politi.co/2ig3Mby o Bannon thinks Thy God Emperor Trump will be reelected with 400 electoral college votes in 2020 – ABC http://abcn.ws/2ylNJge
Thy God Emperor Trump vs. Corker feud continues – Sen. Corker spoke to the Washington Post on Friday and criticized Thy God Emperor Trump for “castrating” Sec. of State Tillerson. http://wapo.st/2hGgbkN o Tillerson says he's 'fully intact' despite Corker's 'castrate' comment – CNN http://cnn.it/2wXD6yy o Tillerson won't say if he called Thy God Emperor Trump a 'moron' – CNN http://cnn.it/2yn9CM5
Health insurers were preparing for the ACA subsidies to end and many signaled an intent to stay in the exchanges – WSJ http://on.wsj.com/2znlnlL o Healthcare - Thy God Emperor Trump would oppose any legislative attempt to "fix" the ACA exchanges and restore subsidy payments unless he got something in return – Politico http://politi.co/2ggN3nJ o Drug price battle shifts from Washington to the states – pharma companies are fighting a host of drug price-control measures being adopted by states across the US. FT http://on.ft.com/2yLrcwp
NAFTA talks aren’t going well – demands made by the US last week have increased the odds of NAFTA’s demise (at the least the demands make it unlikely an agreement on NAFTA changes will be reached by the end of the year) – Reuters http://reut.rs/2zaxZM4 o NAFTA demise emerging as a new risk for investors – the risk of NAFTA collapsing is rising and this is something investors are beginning to consider. WSJ http://on.wsj.com/2yniIs8
China economic growth – China’s money supply statistics were released over the weekend and they came in strong. M2 money supply rose 9.2% in Sept (vs. the St +8.9%) while new yuan loans came in at CNY1.27T (vs. the St CNY1.2T); see JPMorgan’s takeaways here: http://bit.ly/2wXModQ. The head of China’s central bank spoke over the weekend and said economic indicators show “stabilized and stronger growth” (https://bloom.bg/2xHjYJy).
German coalition gov’t unlikely to form until 2018 – Reuters http://reut.rs/2yJ2JYo o Merkel’s CDU suffered a defeat in Lower Saxony state elections (the SPD secured 37.5% compared to 35% for the CDU) – Bloomberg https://bloom.bg/2gkmJZJ
Austria – Sebastian Kurz looks set to become the next chancellor of Austria although his People’s Party (OVP) failed to win an outright majority (it secured 57 out of 183 seats). The OVP is widely expected to form a coalition with the Freedom Party (FPO) which secured 51 seats. CNN. http://cnn.it/2ykzIlo
North Korea – the US and South Korea will hold joint navel exercises this week; media reports suggest a NK missile test could come at any time – Bloomberg/WSJ. http://on.wsj.com/2yozsPY o The book Mattis reads to be prepared for war w/North Korea. T. R. Fehrenbach’s This Kind of War, a 54-year-old history of the Korean War – Politico.
Pentagon reaches out to HFTs and quant hedge funds to help identify market vulnerabilities; the Pentagon is concerned about hackers sowing instability and chaos on US financial markets. Some of the scenarios thought up by the group of Pentagon advisors include flooding the market w/false information and/or fake sell orders or hacking a key cog in the system (such as a credit-card company, payment processor, or payroll processor). WSJ http://on.wsj.com/2wWBULZ
Passive investors are becoming the market’s bad guys – the FT highlights the “passive aggression” occurring in the market as criticism rises around ETFs due to their price insensitivity and lack of interest in company mgmt. http://on.ft.com/2gaiCfn
Jim Grant says he was wrong to imply something suspicious was going on at Bridgewater – CNBC http://cnb.cx/2z7A4bF
Nestle, HSY – HSY is among the companies expected to submit a bid for Nestle’s US confectionery business according to sources cited by CNBC. The US unit is expected to sell for $2-2.5B. CNBC. http://cnb.cx/2gHDfA5
GOOGL, WDAY, CRM: Barron’s discusses how the easiest way for GOOGL to catch up to AMZN and MSFT in cloud technology would be through M&A. The article highlights WDAY and CRM as two attractive takeover candidates for Google. https://goo.gl/tg15mz
Shire – Sachem Head Capital is urging Shire to explore a sale or spin-off of several of its assets – Sky News. http://bit.ly/2zawtcN Calendar of events for the Week of Mon Oct 16
Calendar of events for the week of Mon 10/16 – the main focus this week will be on earnings, China, and US taxes. The China National Congress kicks off Wed 10/18 and the country will be publishing a lot of eco data (inflation out Mon morning 10/16 and Q3 GDP along w/Sept retail sales/IP/FAI out Thurs morning 10/19). Investors will keep an eye on North Korea as media reports suggest the country could fire off some missiles around the China Congress. In the US investors will be digesting earnings (the week of 10/16 is the first busy one of the CQ3 season) and macro news should be limited aside from some Fed speakers (including Yellen who speaks Fri 10/20 after the close). The US tax process will continue w/the Senate voting on a budget resolution (likely Thurs 10/19) - passage is expected but the final vote will likely be close; Rand Paul seems a hard “no” while McCain and a few others are question marks; investors will be watching to see if any Democrats cross the aisle. Keep in mind that the Senate budget resolution will need to be reconciled w/the one from the House. Finally, the EU Leaders Summit runs 10/19-20 and the Japanese snap election takes place Sun 10/22.
Calendar for Mon 10/16 – the focus will be on earnings (SCHW pre-open and BRO, CE, IEX, NAVI, NFLX, Rio Tinto, RT, and SONC after the close).
Calendar for Tues 10/17 – the focus will be on Eurozone Sept auto registrations (2amET), German ZEW survey results for Oct (5amET), US import prices for Sept (8:30amET), US industrial production for Sept (9:15amET), the US NAHB housing index for Oct (10amET), and earnings (CMA, CSX, GS, GWW, HOG, JNJ, MS, Pearson, PLD, Remy Cointreau, SNV, and UNH pre-open and ADTN, BHP, CP, CREE, IBM, LRCX, and NAVI after the close).
Calendar for Wed 10/18 – the focus will be on the start of the China National Congress (begins 10/18), US housing starts for Sept (8:30amET), US building permits for Sept (8:30amET), the US Beige Book (2pmET), Fed speakers (Dudley, Kaplan), and earnings (ABT, Akzo Nobel, ASML, MTB, MTG, NTRS, Reckitt Benckiser, SVU, and USB pre-open and AA, AXP, BDN, BHE, BXS, CCI, CCK, EBAY, GHL, HXL, KALU, SLG, SLM, STLD, TCBI, and URI after the close).
Calendar for Thurs 10/19 - the focus will be on China eco data (Q3 GDP and Sept retail sales/IP/FAI out Wed night/Thurs morning), the EU Leaders Summit (10/19-20), the US Leading Index for Sept (10amET), and earnings (ADS, BBT, BK, BX, DGX, DHR, DOV, GPC, KEY, Nestle, NUE, Pernod Ricard, PM, PPG, Publicis, RCI, Roche, SAP, SNA, SON, Thales, TRV, TSMC, TXT, Unilever, VZ, WBC, and WGO pre-open and ASB, ATHN, ETFC, ISRG, LHO, MXIM, NCR, PBCT, PFPT, PYPL, WDFC, and WERN after the close).
Calendar for Fri 10/20 – the focus will be on comments from BOJ’s Kuroda in Japan, the EU Leaders Summit (10/19-20), US existing home sales for Sept (10amET), comments from Yellen (7:15pmET), and earnings (Assa Abloy, BHGE, CFG, CLF, Daimler, DST, GE, GNTX, HON, InterContinental Hotels, KSU, MAN, PG, SLB, STI, SYF, and Volvo).
Catalysts – big events to watch over the coming months
North Korea provocations - South Korea’s national security adviser Chung Eui-yong said he expected Pyongyang to act around Oct. 10 and 18 (Reuters).
CQ3 earnings – the week of Mon 10/16 is the first busy week of the CQ3 reporting season.
Fed chair decision during the week of 10/16? Based on Thy God Emperor Trump’s “two to three” weeks comment (on Fri 9/29), his decision on a Fed chair could come as soon as the week of 10/16. Media reports suggest the Fed chair frontrunners are Warsh and Powell followed by Yellen and Cohn.
China - the National Congress of the Communist Party of China starts Oct 18.
China Q3 GDP and Sept retail sales, IP, and FAI (Wed night/Thurs morning) – Thurs morning 10/19.
EU leaders hold summit in Brussels. Oct 19-20. Brussels.
Yellen speaks to National Economists Club in Washington. Fri 10/20. 7:15pmET.
Japan – the country will hold snap elections on Sun 10/22.
Flash PMIs for Oct – Tues 10/24
ECB meeting/press conf. Thurs Oct 26. The ECB is expected to provide guidance on LSAP tapering at this meeting (St assumes LSAP drops from EU60B now to ~EU30B w/9 month extension).
Fri Oct 27 – China Sept industrial profits (Thurs night/Fri morning).
Fri Oct 27 – US Q3 GDP, personal consumption, and core PCE for Q3. 8:30amET.
Fri Oct 27 – US Michigan Confidence numbers for Oct. 10amET.
Fri Oct 27 – earnings before the open: B, MRK, PSX, SC, TRU, Volkswagen, WY, XOM.
Mon Oct 30 – US personal income/spending and PCE for Sept. 8:30amET.
Mon Oct 30 – US Dallas Fed index for Oct. 10:30amET.
Mon Oct 30 – analyst meetings: CSX
Mon Oct 30 – earnings before the open: HSBC
Mon Oct 30 – earnings after the close: AVB, CGNX, RE, RTEC, VNO
Tues Oct 31 – BOJ rate decision (Mon night/Tues morning).
Tues Oct 31 – US Employment Cost Index for Q3. 8:30amET.
Tues Oct 31 – US Case-Shiller home price index for Aug. 9amET.
Tues Oct 31 – US Chicago PMI for Oct. 9:45amET.
Tues Oct 31 – US Conference Board Sentiment readings for Oct. 10amET.
Tues Oct 31 – earnings before the open: ADM, AET, Airbus, AMT, Barclays, BNP, CMI, ECL, FIS, GGP, K, MA, OSK, PFE, XYL.
Tues Oct 31 – earnings after the close: APC, CHRW, CXO, PLT, WFT, X
Wed Nov 1 – US ADP jobs report for Oct. 8:15amET.
Wed Nov 1 – US Markit Manufacturing PMI for Oct. 9:45amET.
Wed Nov 1 – US Manufacturing ISM for Oct. 10amET.
Wed Nov 1 – US construction spending report for Sept. 10amET.
Wed Nov 1 – US auto sales for Oct.
Wed Nov 1 – FOMC meeting decision. 2pmET.
Wed Nov 1 – earnings before the open: AGN, APO, CEVA, CLX, EL, GRMN, HFC, LFUS, Novo Nordisk, ORBK, Standard Chartered, TAP, TRI.
Wed Nov 1 – earnings after the close: ALL, BHF, BXP, CACI, CAVM, CSGS, EGOV, FB, LNC, MANT, MET, MUSA, OXY, PRU, QCOM, ULTI, XPO.
Thurs Nov 2 – BOE rate decision. 8amET.
Thurs Nov 2 – US nonfarm productivity and unit labor costs for Q3. 8:30amET.
Thurs Nov 2 – earnings before the open: ADP, AN, BCE, CI, Credit Suisse, DISCA, H, ICE, LDOS, Royal Dutch Shell, Sanofi, Swiss Re, WRK.
Thurs Nov 2 – earnings after the close: AAPL, AIG, ATVI, CBS, CRUS, FLR, HLF, JCOM, RMAX, SBUX, UNIT.
Fri Nov 3 – US jobs report for Oct. 8:30amET.
Fri Nov 3 – US trade balance for Sept. 8:30amET.
Fri Nov 3 – US factory orders and durable goods orders for Sept. 10amET.
Fri Nov 3 – US non-manufacturing ISM for Oct. 10amET.
Mon Nov 6 – Fed’s Dudley speaks at The Economist Club of New York.
Tues Nov 7 – RBA rate decision. Mon night/Tues morning.
Tues Nov 7 – US JOLTs jobs report for Sept. 10amET.
Tues Nov 7 – US consumer credit for Sept. 3pmET.
Thurs Nov 9 – US wholesale trade sales/inventories for Sept. 10amET.
Fri Nov 10 – US Michigan Confidence preliminary numbers for Nov. 10amET.
Tues Nov 14 – US PPI for Oct. 8:30amET.
Wed Nov 15 – US CPI for Oct. 8:30amET.
Wed Nov 15 – US Empire Manufacturing for Nov. 8:30amET.
Wed Nov 15 – US retail sales for Oct. 8:30amET.
Wed Nov 15 – US business inventories for Sept. 10amET.
Thurs Nov 16 – US import prices for Oct. 8:30amET.
Thurs Nov 16 – US industrial production for Oct. 9:15amET.
Thurs Nov 16 – US NAHB housing index for Nov. 10amET.
Fri Nov 17 – US housing starts and building permits for Oct. 8:30amET.
Mon Nov 20 – US Leading Index for Oct. 10amET.
Tues Nov 21 – US existing home sales for Oct. 10amET.
Wed Nov 22 – US durable goods for Oct. 8:30amET.
Wed Nov 22 – US final Michigan Confidence numbers for Nov. 10amET.
Wed Nov 22 – FOMC 11/1 meeting minutes. 2pmET.
Fri Nov 24 – US flash PMIs for Nov. 9:45amET.
J.P. Morgan Market Intelligence is a product of the Institutional Equities Sales and Trading desk of J.P. Morgan Securities LLC and the intellectual property thereof. It is not a product of the Research Department and is intended for distribution to institutional and professional customers only and is not intended for retail customer use. It may not be reproduced, redistributed or transmitted, in whole or in part, without J.P. Morgan’s consent. Any unauthorized use is strictly prohibited.
Can we talk about communication? Your miners are pissed.
As you can probably tell by now, the miners have been pretty upset since the announcement that MainNet would be launching. A lot of it is due to the communication of the project to the miners.
The pre-mine was pretty obnoxious. I know the devs don't want to call it a premine, but let's call it like it is. For days on end, two addresses held all BTM. One more address finally hit a block, but wealth distribution was widely in Bytom and Bitmain's favor. When questioned, devs said that a "few" miners were set up to test the network. The earliest anyone is set to receive a B3 is on Friday, 5/4. Bitmain will have been mining for at least 10 days before anybody else could touch the coin, with the exception of a pool in China who wrote a custom GPU miner (per bytom_Martin).
Devs knew that MainNet would launch with ASICs on them right away. The public knew that ASICs existed (that's why the coin exists), but didn't expect them at block 0. CPU mining on the wallet was even limited in number of threads (see this Issue on Github) to give the ASICs even more of an advantage. Since block 400, I have pointed five nodes with Xeon e5-2620s and couldn't manage to hit a single block. How can devs encourage the public to mine on CPU while they know the launch would be flooded with nearly 2,000 ASICs.
Bitmain's total stake
Bitmain is averaging about 800 blocks per day at this point, that's 330,360 BTM per day, or 3.3 million BTM by the time the first person receives a B3. That's around 1% of the total mineable supply in less than 10 days.
Release of discounted Batch 2 with fast shipping
Since there are only 2,500 units being shipped (per Bitmain's support), early adopters will surely have an advantage, right? No, because Bitmain released Batch 2 immediately following the first shipment of Batch 1 set to ship in as early as a week. Oh, and did I mention that Bitmain discounted them $865? I could see if the Batch 1 owners had a legitimately early start to discount the price so quickly, but most people who ordered Batch 1 didn't even have a shipment yet. Instead, we got the short end of the stick. There's no way we're mining $125 in BTM per day to compensate for the $865 price difference. Why would you allow your partner to hurt your early adopters like this? It speaks volumes about how this project has begun to unfold.
Only China gets refunds
So Chinese early adopters get pissed and even threaten Bitmain with committing suicide at their headquarters. Bitmain offers to refund them ~$628 USD within a month, but no mention to the other markets that were screwed over. Not even a peep. The miners even wanted to buy Batch 2, but won't do so without a coupon that can be 100% utilized on Batch 2. No response from Bitmain after hours, which isn't surprising.
Lack of pool support
As of this post, there are still no instructions on how to mine in a pool. I have personally asked and @mentioned devs at least four times to ask about pool mining, and how to connect the local wallet to a pool. Each time I was ignored, no matter the channel of communication that I used. I even opened up an issue on Github that did not receive a response.
Lack of general support
We've been asking for a way to view local hash rate for some time. In the release of 1.0.1, there was a new command, get-hash-rate, available to use. But this number doesn't seem to make any sense. It will fluctuate from 200KH/s to 1.3MH/s. I asked about this command's functionality on Discord and Telegram several times with no answer.
Lack of general information
Miners will hit people this week and there's still no information about the token swap. No idea if we should keep ERC20 tokens on exchanges, on a local wallet, or what. When asked, Bytom says to wait until more information is available and provides no other information. Meanwhile, we'll be mining a coin that we can't send to exchanges (if we can ever get information about how to connect to a pool). Not to mentioned the promised airdrop (which at 10 BTM per user is rather scant). We don't know how to be eligible for that either.
Claims that Bytom didn't know about Bitmain's plans
Staff claimed that they were surprised by Bitmain's move, yet the founder's news source, 8BTC literally reported on it. Why lie? I've mined a lot of coins at MainNet launch, and I mean a lot. But this has been one of the most unorganized and frustrating launches I have ever experienced - and that's saying a lot considering I mined Signatum when it launched. Check Discord, Telegram, and BitcoinTalk. Your community is pissed with your partnership and you're not listening.
The team is often available on Discord for discussion and assistance. If you have lost your 2FA for the website, please send an email to [email protected] from your registered email address, with proof of identity documentation. There is a file size limit of 1MB, so attach a file under that size. The Crypto20 Fund Links
Information FAQ can be found here. Investment Information Please see a list of Hyperion's investments here. Meridian Fund Series [Minimum investment 100,000 USD] The Meridian Fund Series is composed of three index funds which track the top 10 crypto-currency assets by market capitalization. Each fund option has a variable contingency for cash allocation. Please see the links below for more information:
C10 Hedged C10 is a fund offered by Invictus, composed of the top 10 crypto-currency assets by market capitalization. Through a hedging mechanism, this fund offers greater drawdown protection for investors who may be more risk adverse. The fund is open-ended, and available to purchase through the Invictus Capital portal. Additionally, the use of margin-lending is designed to reduce fees.
FAQ can be found here. Invictus Margin Lending Fund The Invictus Margin Lending Fund offers investors the ability to take advantage of the volatile nature of the cryptocurrency market without risking direct exposure. The fund aims to maximize interest income on USD and USD equivalents with zero anticipated drawdown risk. Returns have a low or negative correlation to the S&P500, VIX, GLD and TNX — making for an excellent portfolio diversification tool. The fund targets compounded interest returns of 10 to 25% p/a net of fees on USD (and USD backed cryptocurrencies such as TUSD). This target should not be used as a prediction of performance. Investors will have access to daily performance reporting via the website and an API.
Emerging Markets Solar Fund The Emerging Markets Solar Fund aims to earn healthy returns whilst contributing to global clean energy production. The Fund provides investors with an opportunity to raise living standards in emerging markets, provide access to modern energy services, reduce global reliance on fossil fuels and offset their carbon emissions. The Emerging Markets Solar (“EMS”) Fund has teamed up with a launch partner, the Sun Exchange, to initiate the Fund. The Sun Exchange is a US-domiciled company operating out of Cape Town, South Africa and is the world’s first global, peer-to-peer, solar-cell micro-leasing online marketplace. They have a strong presence in the African market and have an impressive track record to date. Check out the fund via the Litepaper linked below!
Invictus Gold Plus Fund Gold has been favored and fought over by humans for thousands of years. With scarce supply and unwavering demand, the unmistakable precious metal has remained central to man’s concept of money and the preservation of wealth. Despite gold's initial sell-off in the wake of coronavirus fears, if history is to be a guide then the precious metal is poised for significant growth given the immense increase in money supply by global reserve banks (at this stage $2 trillion in the US alone) in an effort to buoy consumer demand. Invictus Capital presents our latest fund - the Invictus Gold Plus Fund - an open-ended fund that tracks the underlying gold price and earns an additional yield on your investment. The fund’s objective is to outperform gold as a long-term benchmark. The Fund will be held predominantly in gold-backed tokens, namely Tether Gold (XAUT) and PAX Gold (PAXG), with a small portion invested in our Margin Lending Fund (IML) for 24/7 liquidity purposes. The targeted outperformance will be accomplished by taking advantage of arbitrage opportunities and utilizing our proprietary software to margin lend the underlying tokens on platforms such as Bitfinex, expanding on the success and experience gained from operation of our IML fund. For reference, margin lending rates on Tether Gold haved spiked into the double digits in terms of annualized returns (25% APR as of 26/3/2020) due to the recent surge in trading activity.
Invictus Bitcoin Alpha Fund Invictus Capital is proud to present our Bitcoin Alpha Fund (IBA), an open-ended fund that is always long on Bitcoin (BTC), and aims to outperform it by utilizing options and lending strategies to offer both downside protection and yield. The Fund will have long BTC exposure, and it will utilize OTM put options as a protective mechanism which allows BTC downside to be capped at a maximum of 10% of the US dollar value of the Fund per month. Significant Bitcoin gains are made during any period of drawdown exceeding 10%, and IBA has, historically, strongly outperformed its benchmark of BTC. Bitcoin enjoys a first-mover advantage as well as substantial brand recognition, and it remains a popular investment choice for new market entrants. In historical terms Bitcoin has demonstrated low correlation to major asset classes such as equities, bonds and commodities. It can therefore offer superior risk-adjusted returns compared to more traditionally-oriented portfolios. A key aspect of Bitcoin is its scarcity and it can thus translate to a store of value for investors. With a current market capitalization of less than 5% of gold, there is significant room for Bitcoin to capture a larger share of global wealth. Bitcoin's property of scarcity can also serve as a bulwark against the inflationary pressures faced by fiat currencies and other risks associated with the traditional financial system. The IBA Fund offers the benefits of Bitcoin with reduced volatility - a concern which acts as a barrier to entry for many investors. In addition:
No management fee will be charged by the Fund
Portfolio margin agreements allow the fund to engage in lending activities of the USD collateral to generate interest returns as per the Invictus Margin Lending (IML) Fund. These yields will be applied to offset the cost of the purchased put
The Fund will also offset the cost through sale of OTM call options. The premium received from the sale of the call option helps to pay for the put option cost while capping the maximum fund gain to 30% for a given month
Backtested performance of the fund strategy over the past two years shows strong outperformance against the Bitcoin spot price, particularly in market drawdown
Perseus Perseus is a secure, end-to-end ICO raise platform. Perseus was developed by Invictus Capital to assist projects with their raise process in an efficient manner. Though often associated with the Hyperion Fund, any project can apply for this service. Perseus offers front-end, back-end, business, legal, technical, as well as marketing services. Projects can customize according to their requirements. On the front-end, Perseus provides a secure investment portal, including KYC/AML processes. This portal caters to different languages and currencies. Funds are received securely and stored cold, with user-specific information according to their investment history. On the back-end, analytics and reconciliation reports are available. This is in addition to other administrative and wallet tools. Business services can include assistance with exchange listings, advisors, community development, and ICO strategy. Perseus can also assist with roadmap and tokenomic planning. In terms of legal services, this extends to the drafting of agreements (such as SAFTs) and the creation of contractual terms. Technical services encompass the development and auditing of smart contracts, token issuance and security pen-testing. On the marketing side of things, this relates to content creation and dissemination, community management, brand consulting, campaigning, as well as general strategy. Perseus brings value to the blockchain ecosystem, and increases the chances of partner success. Please find FAQ regarding Perseus here.
The intelligent investors guide to cryptocurrency: Part 3a - The value proposition
*Introductions: I'm joskye. A cryptocurrency investor and SDC holder. * ... Hi again. This is the third part in our ongoing series on how to trade better and determine intelligent investments in cryptocurrency for the future.
In part 1 I talked about the importance of selling enough to make back your principle investment i.e. if you buy something at $300 and it rises to $600 in value, sell $300 to eliminate all future risk of personal loss e.g. if that asset falls to $150 in value after (which can happen easily since suchvolatility is very common in cryptocurrency). In cryptocurrency trading/investments a 100% return of investment should always prompt you to consider selling 1/2 your stack.
In part 2 I talked about the psychology behind fear of missing out; i.e. the dangers of buying during a sudden rise in an asset's price and how to make the most of such rallies whilst minimising the risks involved in joining them.
In part 3 I will now discuss Cryptocurrency valuations, price metrics and identifying coins of value, worth holding. ... What makes a coin worth holding: The value proposition What makes anything worth holding? How much of themselves is a person willing to put into it - that's how much. Cryptocurrency is largely driven by faith. It is a speculative enterprise i.e. people mostly put money into cryptocurrencies believing they will go up in value in the future; their plan to sell at a higher price when it does. Currently most cryptocurrencies serve no function than being currencies in themselves. Unfortunately these currencies are largely not recognised by governments, most institutional investors or companies are legitimate stores of value or legitimate currencies of transaction. As such legislation and rules around the world regarding them vary considerably and are often absent. There are very few cryptocurrencies that have legitimised backing, are insured or supported by enterprises that are insured for their loss and essentially there is little to protect you if you lose money through them. So why do people bother putting money into cryptocurrencies it in the first place?
Well some of them do have a good use or potential for good use beyond speculation.
If the present and future value of a cryptocurrency is driven purely by speculation then you are essentially gambling by putting your money to buy that coin and joining the pool of other gamblers who are doing so. You are essentially joining a ponzi scheme and waiting game hoping you've gotten in early enough and convinced enough people to buy more of the asset you hold at slightly higher prices until a price is reached that you can cash out at (or until that thing becomes so big that everyone starts using it as their store of value). This type of dynamic essentially underpins the mentality of most investments and trades i.e. buy low and sell high. I'd like to add buy early for investors since buying during a low in an already established asset may be setting yourself up for being forced to sell at a lower low later (especially if you don't understand the fundamentals of that asset). If however the present or future value of a cryptocurrency is driven by some service other than speculation which can attract and drive fiat currency into it's ecosystem then it is potentially valuable. I.e. will people actually use their USD/Yuan/Euro/GBP/Yen/INR etc to actually purchase the coin in question to do something useful with it (other than gamble on it's future price). There are some cryptocurrencies which satisfy this criteria: ... Bitcoin It is not a currency, it is a remittance system and store of value. It has a reputation increasingly to being seen as a digital version of gold.
It is similar to gold but unlike gold it has no direct physical presence. Gold and is mainly a store of value (rather than it's use in jewellery, cosmetics, therapeutics or electronics which forms a minority of it's market cap) but Gold's physical properties make it vulnerable to seizure, taxation and legislation. Gold also has storage fee's and is difficult to transport; it's speculative value as a store of value is derived from faith in it and it's cultural history.
Unlike gold, Bitcoin is comparatively extremely easy to transport in very large quantities, very easily over short spaces of time. It has sufficient money (USD, Euro, Yuan, Yen, INR etc) to give it decent liquidity i.e. enough people are using it now that if you bought $10,000 worth of bitcoin today, chances are good (that because enough people are also transacting bitcoin at less, simillar and greater quantities) you could sell it somewhere else straight away for $10,000.
Because of these reasons Bitcoin's price also fluctuates in a manner simillar to Gold i.e. conditions which create global or regional economic or geopolitical uncertainty favour an increase in it's price whilst conditions which favour global or regional economic stability and growth favour a drop in it's price.
Bitcoin however is too slow to be a useful currency. It takes 10 minutes for a transaction to be processed and can take an hour for said transaction to be cleared. Obviously if you were waiting to buy a pint of milk from the local shop, you wouldn't do it with Bitcoin because you'd be waiting around a very long time for it to clear. However for much larger transactions where you might not want to wait days (e.g. bank transfers) but can afford to wait a few hours, Bitcoin is surprisingly versatile.
Bitcoin has the cultural and historical advantage of being the first cryptocurrency. It is also still the largest cryptocurrency by a long way with the largest marketcap i.e. price per bitcoin [$952 as of writing] x the number of bitcoin in circulation [16,074,687] which is $15.3 billion. Compare to it's next biggest competitor Ethereum which has a marketcap of $700 million (i.e. only 4.57% of Bitcoin's).
Gold in contrast has a market cap of $6.8 trillion i.e $6800 billion i.e. Bitcoin has a market cap that is only 0.22% of Gold!
The upside to this is that if more people feel that Bitcoin is a legitimate alternative to gold, demand for Bitcoin will surge and since the Bitcoin supply is relatively limited, it's price will shoot up massively - There is a big chunk of money waiting to be gained by eating into the Gold market cap!
If you believe Bitcoin could replace Gold as a more portable, cultural store of value then invest in it. However I warn you there are problems because the software behind bitcoin needs significant upgrades to support increased transaction loads without breaking and due to various reasons (mostly self interest among people who profit from producing Bitcoin) this is being significantly delayed and possibly not happening. I am uncertain if Bitcoin will continue to remain a viable investment in the long term if it does not address these issues.
Bitcoin's value proposition is that it is a store of value. It may not be able to sustain this without significant upgrades to it's underlying software. ... Monero (XMR) Bitcoin does not have anonymity inherently built into it's software. Therefore if you buy and sell Bitcoin especially on cryptocurrency exchanges (where user registration is required), it is possible to trace whom Bitcoin is being transferred from and to.
In contrast Monero is fully anonymous. You cannot see whom Monero is sent from and to, nor can you see how much Monero has been sent.
It has good liquidity, is actively trading and is gaining increasing recognition and respect from cryptocurrency enthusiasts.
Obviously this is useful if you wish to transact in things you do not wish seen!
Otherwise it essentially has many properties similar to Bitcoin.
For this reason I see Monero as Bitcoin + anonymity. I.e. it's value proposition is as store of hidden wealth. I also believe it does not have the issues that bitcoin does namely, same level of mainstream recognition, spotlight of regulatory awareness and developers do seem to be more focused on achieving better scalability and transaction times (it already does 10-20 minute verification time vs bitcoins 1 hour) which gives it better potential as a currency presently compared to Bitcoin.
Although there are a lot of illegitimate uses for private transactions and value storage, there is a far bigger global market for legitimate, fully secure and anonymous transactions for large existing financial institutions (e.g. investment banks and the international services that provide settlement between them).
-This sort of market cap dwarfs gold. However this type of up-scaled usability will not occur until the transaction verification times are much faster (nanoseconds) and the protocol is enhanced to cope with much larger transactions volumes and frequency at that speed; We are a long way off that. I do believe fiat stored in Bitcoin will gradually transfer into Monero boosting it's value. I am not sure Monero though can presently bring fresh fiat currency (USD, Yuan etc) into it's ecosystem beyond outsider speculation in future price.
However it's value went up massively when the largest current darknet markets (a type of anonymous marketplace where illegal goods and services are often traded) Alphabay and Oasis announced their endorsement and use of Monero. This has given Monero a first mover advantage and attract scores of speculators into it's ecosystem.
This is also where it's major present use case and value proposition is; in the settlement of anonymous transactions on darknet markets and a potential successor to Bitcoin. Darknet markets are what drew fiat money into Bitcoin and helped make it the store of value it is now.
If those darknet markets crash, XMR's value could still go down considerably (until it matures and gains a larger market cap)... and it did when when Oasis market disappeared along with it's customers money.
It is not unique in it's function or potential value proposition. My warning about holding Monerofor the long term is that it has competition for it's function not just from Bitcoin itself but from other anonymous coins such as Zcash, DASH (which provides instantaneous settlement) and SDC. Perhaps more importantly, Ethereum (ETH) is now planning to implement optional anonymity (via zSNARKs) in it's transaction network; if it does when combined with Ethereum's own functionality and well defined development roadmap (that will likely several second verification times in late 2017) would render XMR potentially redundant.
The other issue I currently have with Monero is that it uses Proof of Work (PoW) algorithm which increases it's transaction verification times, and encourages constant selling on creation (with formation of mining cartels and subsequent minority led development and price manipulation) rather than accumulation and holding.
This is in direct contrast to the Proof of Stake (PoS) or PoS/PoW hybrid model of coin creation. The differences will be elaborated later (and more thoroughly in a separate article but essentially I believe PoS encourages holding rather than selling leading to better price stability, reduced volatility, gradual increase in value over time and better resistance to price manipulation (including leveraged short selling) by day traders.
Indeed if Monero switched to PoS or hybrid PoW/PoS it would eliminate almost all the issues I currently have with it (by making it a more stable store of value); incidentally I have similar issues with Bitcoin.
... Ethereum (ETH)
The first cryptocurrency which was built with the specific intent of incorporating 'smart contracts' into it's platform.
Simplified, smart contracts allow for much more sophisticated settlement systems and formulae than simple transfer to and from orders and in the future provide the means through which access to these services and indeed services themselves can exist solely on the Ethereum blockhain.
If we work on the premise that blockchains (the technology that underlies most cryptocurrencies) whose entirety of verification is distributed across multiple computers around the world are inherently more secure, stable and harder to take down or maliciously alter than traditional centralised databases, then there is obvious value to institutions who may wish to use such systems to improve the existing security of their services.
More importantly smart contracts allow for trustless settlements i.e. settlements which do not necessarily require third party verification. This means that it could remove the need (and thus expense) of middlemen in a number of existing financial and non-financial real world settlement systems.
It has extremely good developer support and a growing base of large companies (e.g. JP Morgan, Santander, Microsoft) willing to support it or using it. It is also functional and versatile with a clear development roadmap that includes PoS (a system that I believe encourages a gradually increasing or otherwise stable price), improved scalability and most importantly sub-second transaction times.
There are also services already being built on top of Ethereum scheduled for launch by mid 2017 which in themselves could draw fiat currency into the Ethereum ecosystem (although this may take a few years for the effect to become fully apparent and some or indeed all of them may not succeed).
As such in it's present form it's price is a speculative figure derived from the above potential.
The value proposition for Ethereum is that it allows for complex, trustless settlement systems to be built on it. This is a huge deal because the scope of applications is wide and although the technology needs to mature (to support greater transaction volume, frequency and more secure functionality) the sheer amount of fiat such a platform could attract through conversion of traditional centralised settlement and contract services to more secure decentralised platforms is very huge.
This is such that many blockchains such as Hyperledger, Lisk, Counterparty, Rootstock, Tezos and Synereo are being built to try and compete with Ethereum.
Additionally in late 2017, Etherum plans to switch to PoS from Proof of Work mining (the means through which the Ethereum blockchain is verified and new Ethereum is minted to Proof of Stake which in my opinion will make Ethereum an amazing store of value.
... Shadowcash (SDC) The value proposition is a double escrow, fully anonymous, decentralised privacy platform which incorporates private chat, private marketplace and secure, trustless private settlement system into one platform that is fully integrated into it's own blockchain.
There is no other blockchain that is attempting to do this right now (there are some non-anonymous decentralised marketplaces).
If Shadowcash launches it's marketplace and it's marketplace becomes active, it will generate revenue and draw fiat money direct into the Shadowcash ecosystem.
This will give it something that no cryptocurrencies currently actually have: A valuation fully independent of speculation. At this point Shadowcash will have a basic calculable and true intrinsic value measurable in the amount of fiat currency (USD, Yuan, Euro etc) flowing through and stored in it. To the financially trained it will have a real P/E ratio.
Shadowcash already has multiple features that make it an excellent store of value: Low coin supply, potential for great demand, near instantaneous transaction verification times, ability to earn interest for simply holding it.
Indeed one of the biggest immediate factors that made me switch to Shadowcash was using their Umbra client to store and stake my SDC which allows me to earn effective interest on my holdings by leaving the Umbra software running on my laptop.
Since the SDC network is verified via Proof of stake (PoS) rather than Proof of Work (PoW); doing this does not use up valuable CPU/GPU resources on my 3 year old laptop (which I would have to if I attempted to mine Monero or Ethereum via their current PoW algorithms) allowing me to continue using my laptop for work and gaming. I am not penalised for having a slow computer. I am instead rewarded for holding my SDC to verify it's network rather than wasting computing time and electricity to mine and sell it.
I mentioned a major issue I had with Monero was it's usability and the difficult usability of darknet markets in general.
Shadowcash is incredibly easy to use and is heavily focused on usability. This is absolutely essential to it's end users: customers who seek convenient easy and speedy secure anonymous transaction. This will be a dream come true for traditional users of darknet markets. To explain why lets elaborate on traditional darknet markets where in order to transact anonymously you have to:
1. Download the TOR browser. 2. Learn how to use it. 3. Buy XMR or Bitcoin. 4. Learn how to transact with these coins *safely* (yes this is still an issue with XMR in spite of it's built in privacy). 5. Learn how to and where to find reliable secure darknet markets. 6. Create accounts on these markets to access them *and* 7. Have faith that the websites and the highly centralised (and thus much more vulnerable) servers hosting those markets you use will not get shut down, not disappear with your money and not betray your transaction details and potentially identities to the authorities should they be infiltrated by them.
Whereas with Shadowcash's market place this process will become:
1. Download the Shadowcash Umbra client (https://shadowproject.io/en/gettingstarted) 2. Buy some SDC on an exchange and transfer it to your Umbra client. 3. Browse the Shadowcash marketplace and transact securely, safely and anonymously.
That's pretty convenient by comparison.
Unlike traditional darknet markets, Shadowcash does not exist on a centralised server but rather utilises the blockchain technology to exist simultaneously as a whole on all the computers supporting it. This makes it inherently more secure against traditional forms of cyber attacks and account hacks that apply to traditional web based services.
Never underestimate the effect of convenience and security in bringing more people (and fiat currency) into cryptocurrency. SDC could be a big gateway through which this happens.
Indeed the SDC roadmap includes mobile stakable clients and other features designed for it's easy and widespread distribution and use.
I believe because of this SDC could create a paradigm shift in the way anonymous transactions and settlements occur.
In summary I think Shadowcash can be a very useful application as a privacy platform for private communications and transactions. ... ICONOMI (ICN)
In it's simplest form it is an index fund of certain cryptocurrencies i.e. it represents several million dollars worth of USD and Euro that have been converted into a mixture of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Monero, Dash, Maidsafecoin among a few others. The value of this portfolio will fluctuate and it's composition will periodically change depending on whether the coins it represent fail to or achieve certain criteria.
It will also incorporates a fund management platform that is to say in layman's terms, it will be an air B&B of investment advisors and fund managers in cryptocurrency.
Those two points constitute it's value proposition. By nature of the way it works it has an easily identifiable P/E ratio based on the amount used to create the fund ($10.5 million) against the current value of that fund based on it's
If you believe the total marketcap (total valuation) of crptocurrency is going to boom through 2017 and the next few years (and it has massive room to do so given the marketcap and limitations of Gold along with emergent non-speculative usability of certain cryptocurrencies) then ICN is possibly a very good token to buy and simply hold.
The price of ICN is currently $0.33. Based on it's initial valuation of $0.14 per token this would give it an approximate P/E ratio of 2.36. This is falsely assuming the total fiat value of the index has stayed static.
In reality the ICN index has increased 30% in value so as of writing it's true P/E ratio is ($0.33 / (0.14*1.3)) = 1.81.
Compared to other currencies where the intrinsic P/E ratio is infinity this is incredible and represents amazing value for money even when compared against traditional stocks (e.g. GOOG shares as of writing have a P/E ratio of 33).
So for absolute beginners, the risk averse and long term investors, ICN may be the safest and most profitable token to invest in over the long term.
Risks to be aware of are the possibility of regulation restricting or banning the ICN token, a general decline in cryptocurrency marketcap and poor performance in multiple coins composing the ICN index which would bring the value of ICN down significantly.
... Summary lessons The first rule in investing or trading in a given cryptocoin is deciding if it has a value proposition:
1. *Can it draw fiat currency (USD, Euro, Yuan etc) in such a way as to give it a valuation that is fully independent of pure speculation?* 2. *Is it unique?* 3. *Is it rare?* A limited supply with a low or negative inflation rate will lead to increasing price as demand goes up. 4. Are there significant risks associated with the value proposition?
Many cryptocurrencies on the market are both rare and unique but have no viable non-speculative way of drawing fresh fiat into their ecosystem: I believe these coins are potentiallly more prone to failure in the long term.
Many coins attempt to pass off their value proposition as rarity alone. This is not a unique feature; don't be fooled by one's that claim this either; it is the most common scam in cryptocurrency.
The emergence of regulation in cryptocurrencies is an inevitability that will occur as it's popularity and marketcap grows. Be very aware of the sorts of regulations that could be applied to the cryptocurrencies you invest or trade (including regional and international bans) in and consider carefully the impact of those regulations on that currency's marketcap and price!
There are certain other cryptocurrencies and tokens I haven't mentioned. Mainly due to time and also because I have some reservations about them. I would however encourage you to look at tokens such as Augur (REP), Dash (DASH), Digix (DGD), Waves (WAVES), Factom (FCT), BlockCDN which I believe have interesting value propositions (and thus real long term value) and compare them against other tokens such as eBitz, Xaurum, Potcoin, onecoin and Nav (which have a number of red flags).
In the next article I will cover lesson 3b: Price metrics and valuations. It will be much shorter I promise but equally informative and we will cover topics such as price determination, impact of speculation, price manipulation, whales and their impact and the impact of bitcoin on the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem. Finally just to really hammer it home; why am I posting this on the Shadowcash subreddit? It is because Shadowcash is the best cryptocurrency investment of 2016 and I believe it will be again by March 2017. ... References:
1. Crypto-Currency Market Capitalizations, https://coinmarketcap.com/, Last Checked 30/01/2017 2. What is the value of all the Gold in the world? http://onlygold.com/Info/All-The-Gold-In-The-World.asp, Last Checked 30/01/2017. 3. ICONOMI Cryptocurrencies Index (ICNX) 21 December 2016 Rebalancing, https://medium.com/iconominet/iconomi-cryptocurrencies-index-icnx-21-december-2016-rebalancing-transformation-into-iconomi-8e31e48493ab#.sptgljv1c 4. ICNx trend chart, https://medium.com/iconominet/iconomi-cryptocurrencies-index-icnx-30-november-2016-monthly-rebalancing-update-3402866243d9#.kw7g4fqcd, Last updated 30th Nov 2017 5. Shadowcash (SDC) - The billion dollar baby!, https://medium.com/@paradox_/shadowcash-sdc-the-billion-dollar-baby-6b86f0660739#.ypz9yme5a, Last updated 16 August 2016.
... Disclaimer: I am not responsible for your financial decisions, nor am I advising you take a particular financial position. Rather I am sharing my experiences and hoping you form your own opinions and insights from them. Full disclosure: I have long positions in Ethereum (ETH), Shadowcash (SDC), ICONOMI (ICN), Augur (REP) and Digix (DGD).
Will it be possible for cloud customers wishing to move their cloud apps to the internet computer to fix their operating cost in USD instead of DFN? I came across this article: https://techcrunch-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/techcrunch.com/2018/09/02/the-collapse-of-eth-is-inevitable/amp/ It talks about how ETH is unnecessary to run Smart Contracts on Ethereum thanks to something called Economic Abstraction. I admit the technical details of the article are a bit beyond my ability to comprehend, however it got me thinking about Dfinity and whether it would be possible to use economic abstraction to create contracts where miners get paid in an assets that is pegged to a fiat currency? The Internet Computer offers many interesting advantages, but settling payments in DFN seems like a huge drawback. Most companies strongly prefer to have cost and revenues in the same currency to avoid exchange rate risk. That would be true for customers wishing to run Dapps, but it likely will also be true for miners. Ie. Mining gets less risky if you get paid in the same currency as your electric bill. Crypto currencies are famously volatile, and it will be tough to get board approval to move to Dfinity Cloud if the cost is as unpredictable as the price of Bitcoin. Settling payments in fiat (or a fiat pegged digital assets) thus seems to me like it would significantly boost the attractiveness of the Internet Computer. Sure it would take away some of the excitement for people hoping to speculate on the value of Dfinities, but those people have plenty of other outlets for their desires to speculate.
Bitcoin's specification (eg: Excess Blocksize (EB) & Acceptance Depth (AD), configurable via Bitcoin Unlimited) can, should & always WILL be decided by ALL the miners & users - not by a single FIAT-FUNDED, CENSORSHIP-SUPPORTED dev team (Core/Blockstream) & miner (BitFury) pushing SegWit 1.7MB blocks
TL;DR: The market will inevitably prefer:
non-fiat-funded dev teams (and mining operations);
non-centrally planned, non-hard-coded blocksize - which the users and miners can adjust over time, based on evolving economic and technological conditions.
This means that the market of Bitcoin users and miners will reject Core/Blockstream's SegWit (with its centrally-planned 1.7MB blocksize and dangerous "anyone-can-spend" soft-fork semantics) - and the market will prefer Bitcoin Unlimited, which supports market-based (user-configurable) blocksize based on a much simpler & safer hard fork - allowing essentially "unlimited" growth in Bitcoin adoption and price. Details Seriously folks, think about it: How many successful broad-based socio-economic disruptive technologies allow their "community debate" about the high-level system specification to be centrally controlled and censored by a bunch of low-level (C++) implementation providers (and a bunch of central bankers funding them with fiat)? The Bitcoin community never really asked for SegWit-as-a-soft-fork. It's being forced on us. SegWit has been the horrendous misbegotten result of years of trolling from three stubborn out-of-touch devs who happened to get millions of dollars in fiat from central bankers: u/nullc and u/adam3us and the odd u/luke-jr who they carefully keep at arm's length - and a tiny army of lesser trolls, trotting out the same-old tired totally debunked, massively downvoted arguments - all supported by central banker trolls who provided $76 million in fiat to fund this misguided mess. Many people in the Bitcoin community have never really participated in or even seen a serious, open, and honest debate about SegWit versus Bitcoin Unlimited - because there are basically only two kinds of people in the Bitcoin community now:
people who have been brainwashed by the propaganda on the anti-cypherpunk & pro-corporate subreddit r\bitcoin and/or corrupted by fiat from central bankers (and so most of these less-informed people support SegWit)
people who have been ostracized and banned by the anti-cypherpunk & pro-corporate subreddit r\bitcoin - so they moved elsewhere, to btc or Twitter or Medium or wherever (and most of these more-informed people support Bitcoin Unlimited)
Bitcoin development used to be dominated by forward-thinking, community-responsive, devs supporting simple and safe on-chain scaling like Satoshi Nakamoto (whose quotes are banned on r\bitcoin), Gavin Andresen (ceaselessly hounded and attacked by an army of trolls) and Mike Hearn (whose greatest invention may have been the forgotten Lighthouse project - which could have given us bitcoin-funded ie non-fiat-funded development). Now Bitcoin development is dominated by Debbie Downers and Dead Enders like u/nullc and u/adam3us and u/luke-jr who have never really believed that Bitcoin can scale on-chain and succeed the way that Satoshi said it could. They've been doing everything they can to destroy Satoshi's successful experiment - refusing to remove Bitcoin's temporary 1MB anti-spam kludge for purely political and not technical reasons, and now trying to force everyone to adopt SegWit - the final, fatal kludge. If it wasn't for the massive censoring on r\bitcoin, then a tsunami of true cypherpunk freedom and real community consensus would wash that cesspool clean, and the fiat-funded voices of u/nullc and u/adam3us and u/luke-jr (and the tiny minority of their vocal but misguided supporters) would sink the the bottom of every thread, a forgotten footnote of history with their shitty soft kludgy centrally-planned anyone-can-spend 1.7MB 1-to-4-discount SegWit soft-fork poison pill. If Bitcoin gets upgraded the way Satoshi said it would (via flag days and/or hard forks - also known as a simple protocol upgrade or a full node referendum), then the community would reject Core/Blockstream's shitty centralized SegWit spaghetti-code soft fork, and Core/Blockstream would be forgotten - and their investors would be furious. The Bitcoin community isn't stupid. Economically intelligent Bitcoin users and miners will not vote against our own economic interests. We will not "upgrade" to dangerous, messy, dead-end technology (SegWit) which needlessly overcomplicates our codebase and needlessly suppresses Bitcoin's userbase and price - when we can just as easily updrade to something clean and simple and growth-oriented like Bitcoin Unlimited, which keeps our codebase clean and simple and safe, while providing an open-ended, market-based, long-term solution for blocksize, supporting long-term (essentially "unlimited") growth in Bitcoin's userbase and price. Everyone (ie, everyone who gets their information on uncensored forums like btc and who isn't getting millions of dollars in fiat from central bankers) knows by now that:
SegWit would radically and recklessly restructure Bitcoin's highly successful security data structures - making all transactions "anyone-can-spend" to any clients with are not "upgraded" to SegWit
It is an outrage and an insult for Core/Blockstream's development team and their squad of cheerleaders on r\bitcoin to call SegWit "safe" and "soft" when it's actually messy, dangerous and overcomplicated - plus it's a dead-end because it will continue to artifically suppress Bitcoin's adoption and price.
It is the very softness (ie: kludginess) of SegWit which would make future upgrades to Bitcoin so much more difficult and complicated (aka "technical debt"). Worst of all: SegWit would introduce a radical, unknown, untested exotic new threat vector: a totally new type of "51% attack" where old coins would now also be at risk (due to SegWit's "anyone-can-spend" semantics - which would be totally unnecessary to use if SegWit had been done as a clean and safe hard fork, instead of a messy and dangerous soft fork). The stubbornness (and recklessness) of insisting on doing SegWit as this kind of dangerous and messy soft fork is 100% because Blockstream is afraid to do a clean and safe "hard" fork - because a hard fork lets Bitcoin users and miners actually have an explicit "vote" - or a "full node referendum" - and Core/Blockstream knows that the result would most likely be that Bitcoin users and miners would "dump" Core/Blockstream's shitty code with its centrally-planned 1.7MB blocksize and its dangerous anyone-can-spend soft-fork hack. So Core/Blockstream are trying to force more dangerous, less useful code on the network, using the toxic tools of fiat and censorship, purely for their own selfish "political" and "economic" reasons. Core/Blockstream has millions of dollars in fiat now so they don't care if they continue to suppress the Bitcoin price like they have since they came on the scene in late 2014.
This trader's price & volume graph / model predicted that we should be over $10,000 USD/BTC by now. The model broke in late 2014 - when AXA-funded Blockstream was founded, and started spreading propaganda and crippleware, centrally imposing artificially tiny blocksize to suppress the volume & price.
https://np.reddit.com/btc/comments/5obe2m/this_traders_price_volume_graph_model_predicted/ Also see a similar graph in u/Peter__R's recent article on Medium - where the graph clearly shows the same Bitcoin price suppression - ie price uncoupling from adoption and dipping below the previous tightly correlated trend - starting right at that fateful moment when Blockstream came on the scene and told Bitcoiners that we can't have nice things anymore like on-chain scaling and increasing adoption and price: late 2014. So, Core/Blockstream offers inferior, centrally planned, dangerous messy code - and they are responsible for not only splitting the community but also even arguably suppressing Bitcoin adoption and price - and now they're such bold arrogant fuckheads that they want to make their hegemony permanent by monopolizing Bitcoin governance forever in the future by sneaking in their shittier and shittier code starting with the Trojan Horse of SegWit-as-a-soft-fork with its centrally-planned hard-coded parameters and radical dangerous new anti-security model making all UTXOs "anyone-can-spend" - recklessly and needlessly exposing Bitcoin to exotic, unknown attack vectors which have never existed before in its 8 years of safe and successful growth. Core/Blockstream don't give a fuck if they hurt us Bitcoin users and miners in the process - because they don't care about you - they only care about themselves - and the central bankers who are paying them. Bitcoin Unlimited isn't influenced by censorship or fiat.
Bitcoin Unlimited comes from the community - it's supported by users and miners - and independent, non-fiat-funded devs.
Bitcoin Unlimited proposes using Nakamoto Consensus to provide a one-time, long-term solution for evolving blocksizes - now, and years into the future.
Bitcoin Unlimited (BU) makes two parameters - Excess Blocksize (EB) & Acceptance Depth (AD) - explicitly and formally and "internally (online)" configurable and "signal-able" by miners and users.
In fact, these two parameters already have been implicitly and formally and "externally (off-line)" configurable for nearly a decade now - thus formalizing and internalizing (and moving on-line) several long-standing, successful, informal, external (offline) practices.
So, Bitcoin Unlimited provides an unlimited future path to maximum potential growth in Bitcoin adoption and Bitcoin throughput and Bitcoin price - with a single one-time upgrade posing minimal technological disruption and minimal game-theory risk.
Yes BU does involve some new game theory, which should be and in fact has been analyzed and tested in-depth to see if it would work - and there is a growing "community consensus" - among forward-thinking economically-incentivized users and miners and devs - that BU does indeed "do the right thing".
The bottom line is:
Bitcoin Unlimited's Excessive Block (EB) / Acceptance Depth (AD) approach is the product of open, decentralized, non-fiat-funded debate. Yes BU might have "imperfections" including bugs - just like Bitcoin itself did in the beginning. And you can also be sure - due to BU's open, decentralized, community-based, non-fiat-funded process, we will all work together, driven by our economic incentives, to make sure that any imperfections or "bugs" are immediately fixed, and to make sure that BU is a technological and economic success.
Core/Blockstream's SegWit-as-a-soft-fork,with its centrally-planned 1.7MB maybe-someday blocksize, and its centrally-planned 1-to-4-ratio accounting-trick making some transactions cheaper than others is messy code, that doesn't provide market-based scaling, that arbitrary hard-codes crazy values like 1.7MB and 1-to-4 discounts that some dev pulled out of their ass, and also leads to dreaded "vendor dev team lock-in" giving Core/Blockstream permanent "job security" - due to the "worse is better" principle where bad devs give themselves more and more job security by continuing to make their shitty code base shittier and shittier.
SegWit is doomed to be second-rate compared to BU - in terms of technology as well as economics.
Bitcoin Unlimited's simple and safe long-term market-based scaling keeps our code cleaner and more flexible, and ultimately will make us all much richer and make Bitcoin easier and safer to use and upgrade, when compared to SegWit's centrally planned 1.7MB blocks and dangerous soft-fork spaghetti code.
Evaluating our "upgrade options" in those (technological and economic and "governance") terms is the right way to evaluate these things - indeed it is the only way to evaluate these things - and everybody (except a bunch of unpopular out-of-touch devs and shills sucking the dicks of central bankers) knows that SegWit's messy technology, economic and scaling dead-end, and centralized governance is totally inferior to Bitcoin Unlimited, on all three counts. Everyone knows that:
With SegWit, the community would continue to suffer - immediately launching into yet-another never-ending toxic divisive blocksize debate to remove SegWit's yet-another centrally planned artificially low 1.7MB blocksize kludge WTF?!?
With SegWit, Bitcoin volume would continue to be centrally controlled, so Bitcoin's price would continue to be centrally suppressed - with Core/Blockstream continuing to centrally control and "kludge up" Bitcoin's codebase, adding more and more of their non-modular, messy continually shittier and shittier soft forks.
With Bitcoin Unlimited, the community continues to be in control - of our code, our governance, and our blocksize - not a tiny handful of fiat-funded devs and miners like Core/Blockstream and BitFury and a tiny minority of their outspoken supporters (who are well-known on this forum - just look at the bottom of every thread, where they are massively downvoted - but never censored! - after spouting their tired, tedious, repeatedly debunked astroturf arguments). The next time those people try to attack the idea of market-based blocksize, we know how to make their heads explode, just by asking them: If the users the miners shouldn't decide the blocksize - then who the fuck should?? And if that kind of conversation were to continue, it might go like: Who should decide the blocksize - you or me? _"Small-blockers" Blocksize central planners are satisfied with a centrally planned one-time hard-coded bump to 1.7MB blocks via a dangerous messy convoluted "soft" fork called SegWit which actually centralizes and suppresses Bitcoin by pricing most people off of the blockchain. Fine, that's your opinion and you're free to say it and we're free to downvote it and to reject your poorly written code with its centrally-planned 1.7MB blocksize and its anyone-can-spend hack. Meanwhile, the vast majority of Bitcoin users and miners want to be free - and we want our code to be simple and safe. We support market-based blocksize so our code and our markets can be free of some ridiculous arbitrary centrally planned hard-coded 1MB 1.7MB blocksize - and we want our code to be fred of messy, dangerous hacks and kludges lke SegWit. Instead, we support decentralized governance and market-based, non-centrally-planned, open-ended Bitcoin debate and open-ended Bitcoin economic and social growth and adoption. The Bitcoin community can and should and therefore eventually (inevitably) will adapt the software solution which explicitly supports users and miners deciding the blocksize in a clean, safe, future-proof "hard" fork called Bitcoin Unlimited. In the end, the market will choose the approach (SegWit or Bitcoin Unlimited) which provides the most economic incentives, using the simplest and safest technology. Economic incentives, based on using the simplest and safest technology, are what drives Bitcoin and makes it succeed.
Blockstream/Core and BitFury can "afford" to ignore the will of the Bitcoin community, and can "afford" to ignore their own economic incentives - because they have millions of dollars in fiat, and they communicate on censored forums. They're fiat-funded, centralized, censored, and fragile. They're fine with making their codebase even more centralized and fragile - by adopting SegWit.
The rest of the Bitcoin community communicates on non-censored forums, and we want to maximize the value of our investments in Bitcoin. We're community-oriented and our code supports market-based blocksize using simple and safe and flexible and upgradeable code - so we're adopting Bitcoin Unlimited.
You are free to choose between these two options - based on your own economic incentives, and based on your understanding of the best technology roadmap: How rich are you gonna get with SegWit, now and in the long term?
SegWit is dangerous and messy, fiat-funded, censorship-supported centrally-planned soft-fork spaghetti code - creating zombie nodes and requiring millions of lines of risky code changes in all wallets, exchanges and business software - and in the end only offering an arbitrary pathetic 1.7MB blocksize - and recklessly making all transactions anyone-can-spend - while increasing "dev team lock-in" and continuing to centrally suppress Bitcoin's adoption and price. ... versus:
How rich are you gonna get with Bitcoin Unlimited, now and in the long term?
Bitcoin Unlimited is clean & safe community-supported non-fiat-funded, non-censorship-based code, providing a long-term scaling and governance solution offering market-based blocksize, where users and miners will continue to determine the size of blocks (as they actually quite successfully and profitably have for the past 8 years), based on our understanding of current financial and technological conditions, while continuing to support unlimited growth in Bitcoin's adoption and price (as we've also seen for the past 8 years).
The market of Bitcoin users and miners (ie, you) can and should (and therefore will) decide!
XBT - Bitcoin. Our currency rankings show that the most popular Bitcoin exchange rate is the XBT to USD rate. There is no official ISO currency code for Bitcoins, although XBT is commonly used. The currency symbol is . Live Bitcoin to Canadian Dollar Rates. BTC to CAD Price. BTC/CAD Charts. ... Public Key to Hash; BTC/CAD CURRENT RATE. 1 BTC - Bitcoin Canadian Dollar - CAD. CA$ 17,221.56. 24 Hour Average Rates : CA$0.00 CAD. 1 Hour Change : % 24 Hour Change : % 7 Day Change : % Market Cap : 0 CAD. 24 Hour Volume : 0 CAD. Available Supply : 0 BTC. Total Supply : 0 BTC. $1 USD CA$0.00 CAD. POPULAR CURRENCIES ... EUR/USD. 1.1862 +0.39% (+0.0046) BTC/USD. 12993.30-0.10% (-13.1) BTC/EUR. 10938.10-0.48% (-52.3) BTC/GBP. 9968.70 +0.27% (+26.7) Live BTC Price:Homepage; Ethereum Price; BTC to CAD Bitcoin to Canadian Dollar. BTC to CAD (Bitcoin in Canadian Dollars) live updated realtime exchange conversion. Live Bitcoin price in Canadian $. BTC to CAD exchange rate, chart (weekly, intraday, monthly, yearly ... So, you've converted 1 Canadian Dollar to 0.000058 Bitcoin.We used 17236.90 International Currency Exchange Rate. We added the most popular Currencies and CryptoCurrencies for our Calculator. Compare exchange rates across a handful of different crypto exchanges and you might be surprised to find just how much they can differ from one platform to the next. The variation can be as much as 10% in some cases, which can obviously make a big difference to the success of a trade. Liquidity. The level of liquidity on an exchange affects the ease and speed with which you can complete trades ...
HOW TO CONVERT USD TO CAD USING QUESTRADE - YouTube
**Get $50 in free trades with Questrade** http://www.questrade.com?refid=hxv3wpa7 WATCH MY FIRST VIDEO ON QUESTRADE - https://youtu.be/q_72k1_Z6xw WATCH MY P... http://TheGermanBankerSecret.com/BTC Bitcon Exchange Rate And Bitcoin Charts The fluctuating Bitcoin Exchange rate is making Bitcoin charts more important as... #bitcoin exchange #how much is one bitcoin #local bitcoin #bitcoin cost #buy bitcoin instantly #bitcoin rate #bitcoin market cap #bitcoin exchange rate #bitcoin account #bitcoin to usd converter # ... Join our Discord!👉 https://discord.gg/profits Daily Crypto, Bitmex, Stock, ETF, & Forex Signals: https://www.tradersprofitclub.com Subscribe to our channel! ... Convert Bitcoin and all Altcoin in US dollars. Cryptocurrency Converter and Calculator Tool CoinMarketCap Currency converter with live rates for all currencies. Free exchange rates. Saves ...